Reinstatement of a military draft several steps away.

Byline: GUEST VIEWPOINT By Carol Van Houten For The Register-Guard

Across Oregon, thousands of families that include males ages 18 to 21 are concerned about the possible return of a military draft. In recent months, letters to the the editor, Web sites, e-mails and articles warn that a draft is coming.

Oregonians are acutely aware of the call-up of reservists and National Guard members to meet the growing need for additional military personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan - and of concerns about their retention long after terms of service have expired. Recent deaths have brought the war home to many Oregonians. It is not surprising that many are wondering just how soon the government will have no choice but to reinstitute a draft.

To resume a draft, Congress would have to pass authorizing legislation. No bill currently in Congress would do that. Legislation introduced this session by Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., (House Resolution 163) is actually a protest against the current "poverty draft," in which armed forces members are now disproportionately people of color, and come from rural areas and poor families. This bill deserves national debate because it calls for universal service, by males and females, either in military service or civilian service. However, it is not a bill to reinstitute the draft.

The Selective Service System is a precursor to the draft because its purpose is to identify all males as they turn 18 years old. The last person drafted was in 1973 in the midst of the Vietnam War, and in 1975 the Selective Service system was ended, only to be revived in 1980.

Since that time, local draft boards have met annually. Because a term of service for draft board members is 20 years, it is not surprising that in 2004 there are many vacancies.

The annual Selective Service budget is $28 million. The 2004 work plan included the notion of developing a plan for selectively drafting people by skills, such as medical or technical. Information about this work plan, budget amount and the call to fill draft board vacancies have been misconstrued by some as evidence of an imminent return of the draft. Actually, it is business as usual.

If a military draft were to return, it would not be the same as during the Vietnam War. Because of the widespread concern that sons in wealthy and politically connected families can easily avoid the draft, no educational exemptions are expected this time, except to allow the completion of a term or for a senior to complete the year. Because of the extensive completion of extradition treaties, for example, the 2001 Smart Border Declaration, escaping to Canada or Sweden, or about any other country, would not be an option.

So will there be a draft soon? No one knows. The Department of Defense and the military are doing all they can to avoid a draft, depending heavily on reservists and National Guard members, using "stop loss" orders that do not allow soldiers whose terms of service are up to leave the military, using contractors to relieve soldiers of certain tasks, offering re-enlistment bonuses, and decreasing the number of troops stationed in areas such as Germany and Japan.

Military recruiters made their enlistment goals in 2003 and are on track to do so again this year. A big unknown personnel question for the future is how many reservists and National Guard members will re-enlist after being deployed away from home for such long periods.

Balancing all of the above factors, plus adding a factor of the political unpopularity of a return of the draft, it seems highly unlikely that a bill to return the draft would be enacted before the election in November.

A draft seems more likely in 2005 or beyond if we stay in Iraq with large numbers of troops, if re-enlistments of military personnel fall dramatically as some predict, if our government decides to wage pre-emptive war on another country and if we continue to address international problems with military solutions.

Using military solutions before exhausting all other solutions is wrong. We have learned in Iraq that military solutions don't work, don't build a country. Too many families, both Iraqi and American, have lost precious members to death and injury.

It is time for each of us to decide what kind of a country we want to be. Do we want to be a militaristic, domineering one, or to be a cooperative member of the international community? If we choose the latter, we can avoid a draft and hopefully provide alternative career opportunities for low-income, rural and youth of color.

Carol Van Houten coordinates the draft, pre-enlistment and conscientious objection counseling project at Community Alliance of Lane County. She also serves on the board of directors of that organization.