Reform's winners, losers.

Byline: The Register-Guard

Although it won't take effect until the day after this year's November general election, the campaign finance reform bill passed last week by Congress will undoubtedly produce benefits for some and challenges for others. Here's an early guess on the winners and losers:

Incumbents - The early betting is that incumbents will benefit from the bill's ban on "issue ads" 60 days before an election. That would be true if the bill's other main provision - a ban on "soft money" donations to national political parties - doesn't lead advocacy groups that buy issue ads to switch to hard-money donations that must be reported. On balance, the legislation's effect on incumbents promises to be neutral.

State and local political parties - These groups and their leaders will probably be the big beneficiaries of the soft money ban, because the bill allows state and local parties to accept up to $10,000 a year in soft money contributions from each donor. Such money is supposed to be used only for party-building activities, but a lot of soft money ends up in campaign coffers. It's a shame that the bill didn't ban all soft money contributions, so that every nickel that tries to influence election outcomes would be reported and the donors and recipients known.

National political parties - Some suggest that the national parties will be hurt most by the soft money ban, but that will be true only if the parties don't launch grassroots campaigns to reach out to broader constituencies. In time, those efforts could strengthen the national parties.

Democrats and Republicans - Both parties raised roughly equal amounts of soft money in 2000, but Republicans have always bested Democrats in raising hard money contributions. The Associated Press reported that in 2000, the GOP raised $466 million in hard money to $275 million for Democrats. The flip side is that Democrats and their core supporters - unions, environmentalists, etc. - have generally been better organizers and could use those talents to raise more hard money contributions. The bill probably tilts a bit toward the GOP, which makes that party's intense opposition to campaign reform so baffling.

Interest groups - Most advocacy groups dislike the issue ad ban because they feel it will hurt their ability to influence election outcomes. The ban is the most questionable part of the reform bill and its constitutionality will no doubt be decided in court. Until then, the ban looks like a wash for advocacy groups.

There may indeed be winners and losers because of the reform bill, but it won't be until the 2004 elections until we find out who they are - and aren't. The real winners, however, will be the voters.