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Pradeep Kurukulasuriya and Robert Mendelsohn (2)

(1) An earlier version of this Working Paper was published as CEEPA Discussion Paper number 8.

(2) School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 230 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA. E-mails: pradeep.kurukulasuriya@yale.edu; robert.mendelsohn@yale.edu. The authors wish to thank Rashid Hassan, David Maddison and Ariel Dinar for their comments. The special effort of Jeffrey Lecksel in fixing some of the maps in this paper are much appreciated.

This paper was funded by the GEF and the World Bank. It is part of a larger study on the effect of climate change on agriculture in Africa, managed by the World Bank and coordinated by the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria, South Africa.

Soil definitions: Rhodic ferralsols with fine texture in hilly to steep areas (frFHS), eutric gleysols with coarse texture in undulating areas (geCU), lithosols hilly to steep slope (ilqHS), chromic chromic /chro·mic/ (kro´mik) of, pertaining to, or related to chromium.

chromic phosphate P 32
 luvisols with medium to fine texture in undulating areas (lcMFU), chromic luvisols in moderate to steep areas (lcMS), gleyic luvisols (lg), orthic luvisols in moderate to hilly areas (loMH), dystric nitrosols (nd), cambic arenosols (qc), luvic arenosols (ql), chromic vertisols with fine texture in undulating areas (vcFU), calcic cal·cic
adj.
Composed of, containing, derived from, or relating to calcium or lime.



calcic

of or pertaining to lime or calcium.
 yermosols with coarse to moderate texture and in undulating to hilly areas (ykCMUH), lithosols in hilly and steep areas (ilqHS), luvic arenosols (ql), dystric nitosols (nd), gleyic luvisols (lg).

Soil definitions: Rhodic ferralsols with fine texture in hilly to steep areas (frFHS), eutric gleysols with coarse texture in undulating areas (geCU), lithosols hilly to steep slope (ilqHS), chromic luvisols with medium to fine texture in undulating areas (lcMFU), chromic luvisols in moderate to steep areas (lcMS), gleyic luvisols (lg), orthic luvisols in moderate to hilly areas (loMH), dystric nitrosols (nd), cambic arenosols (qc), luvic arenosols (ql), chromic vertisols with fine texture in undulating areas (vcFU), calcic yermosols with coarse to moderate texture and in undulating to hilly areas (ykCMUH), lithosols in hilly and steep areas (ilqHS), luvic arenosols (ql), dystric nitosols (nd), gleyic luvisols (lg).
Table 1: Useable surveys by country

Country          Dryland    Irrigated    Total

Burkina Faso         990           41     1031
Cameroon             646          105      751
Egypt                  0          802      802
Ethiopia             874           66      940
Ghana                849           29      878
Kenya                675           79      754
Niger                849           48      897
Senegal             1037           31     1068
South Africa         199           87      286
Zambia               956           14      970
Zimbabwe             597           90      687
Total               7672         1392     9064

Table 2: Temperature ([degrees]C) normals (Sample means)

Country          Winter    Spring    Summer      Fall

Burkina Faso       23.6      28.3      28.9      24.5
Cameroon           19.4      21.4      20.0      18.9
Egypt              11.7      13.2      24.1      23.4
Ethiopia           18.6      21.5      19.7      18.1
Ghana              21.8      24.8      22.6      21.2
Kenya              18.8      19.7      18.4      19.1
Niger              26.3      30.8      33.9      29.2
Senegal            24.5      29.1      31.5      26.7
South Africa       11.5      15.5      20.7      19.4
Zambia             16.7      21.7      21.1      19.6
Zimbabwe           16.6      21.3      22.5      20.6
Africa-wide        19.8      23.4      24.5      22.2

Note: Seasonal climates have been adjusted so that they are
consistent regardless of hemisphere.

Table 3: Precipitation (mm/mo) normals (Sample means)

Country          Winter    Spring    Summer      Fall

Burkina Faso        2.6      15.8     113.8     133.1
Cameroon           60.3     101.9     185.1     228.6
Egypt              12.8       7.0       2.3       3.5
Ethiopia           19.4      49.2     123.7     117.5
Ghana              30.9      59.7     112.4     111.7
Kenya              88.4     103.0      84.3      60.0
Niger               0.8       3.2      64.1      70.6
Senegal             2.2       1.1      47.9     112.7
South Africa        1.8      55.0      86.4      68.8
Zambia             48.3      57.7     108.6     100.7
Zimbabwe            7.5      15.4     138.8      90.0
Africa-wide        25.9      39.8      96.1     102.4

Note: Seasonal climates have been adjusted so that they are
consistent regardless of hemisphere.

Table 4: Net revenues per ha (in US$)

Country            Total    Dryland    Irrigated

Burkina Faso         328        318          538
Cameroon             987        952         1217
Egypt               1660                    1660
Ethiopia             199        188          345
Ghana                422        419          496
Kenya                267        255          365
Niger                125        119          227
Senegal              239        237          282
South Africa         811        538         1445
Zambia               134        133          145
Zimbabwe             432        403          643
Average per ha       462        319         1261

Table 5: Regression coefficients of all farms, dryland farms and
irrigated farms without regional dummies

Variable                All farms       Dryland       Irrigated

Winter temperature        -83.9         -117.1 *         91.0
Winter temp squared       2.98 *         3.62 *         -2.16
Spring temp               -18.4          -20.9          -186.3
Spring temp sq            -1.61          -1.10           2.21
Summer temp              212.4 **        118.9        1093.0 **
Summer temp sq           -2.74 **        -1.36        -19.01 **
Fall temp                -116.6 *        -22.8        -1067.4 **
Fall temp sq               1.68          -0.23         22.28 **
Winter precipitation     -3.32 **       -4.79 **         7.86
Winter prec sq           0.018 **       0.025 **        -0.043
Spring prec               3.42 *        5.38 **         -11.99
Spring prec sq            -0.002       -0.017 **       0.099 *
Summer prec              3.90 **        3.43 **        23.84 **
Summer prec sq          -0.016 **      -0.015 **      -0.093 **
Fall prec                -1.63 *        -1.76 **      -19.82 **
Fall prec sq             0.012 **       0.013 **       0.074 **
Mean flow                12.20 **       -8.48 *        10.54 **
Farm area               -0.074 **      -0.320 **       -0.042 *
Farm area sq             0.000 **       0.000 **       0.000 *
Elevation               -0.077 **      -0.115 **       0.234 *
Log (household size)      27.3 *         20.93           64.5
Irrigate (1/0)           251.3 **
Household access to
  electricity (1/0)      117.4 **       95.47 **       297.8 **
Soil (geCU)             -692.4 **      -393.3 **      -1265.7 **
Soil (ilqHS)            -454.4 **      -228.1 **      -1038.0 **
Soil (loMH)             -2322.0 **     -1999.8 **
Soil (vcFU)             -1065.1 **     -894.3 **      -1585.5 **
Soil (lcMFU)            -261.2 **      -250.2 **
Soil (qc)               1642.8 **      1709.0 **
Soil (ql)               -539.9 **      -269.6 **
Soil (lcMS)              -2267.6                      -5812.3 **
Soil (nd)                 370.7                       7343.7 **
Soil (lg)               -179.0 **      -125.2 **
Soil (frFHS)             992.4 *                        3540.0
Soil (ykCMUH)           1279.6 **      -636.3 **
Constant                  141.8          702.4          -243.3
N                          8459           7238           1221
R2                        0.351          0.171           0.29
F                         68.59          33.81          52.45

Notes: * significant at 5% level ** significant at 1% level

Table 6: Regression coefficients of all farms, dryland farms and
irrigated farms with regional dummies

Variable                  All farms       Dryland       Irrigated

Winter temperature        -173.6 **        -106.7         -93.5
Winter temp squared         6.1 **         3.9 *           4.9
Spring temp                 115.1          -82.8           58.7
Spring temp sq             -5.0 **          -0.3           -4.1
Summer temp                173.9 **       198.6 **       827.5 **
Summer temp sq               -1.9          -3.2 *        -13.1 *
Fall temp                   -98.1          -92.4         -824.2 *
Fall temp sq                 1.1            1.5           15.3 *
Winter precipitation        -2.9 *          -1.9           5.8
Winter prec sq              0.0 **          0.00           0.00
Spring prec                 3.5 *          3.6 **         -10.6
Spring prec sq              -0.001        -0.011 *       0.091 *
Summer prec                 3.4 **         1.9 *         21.4 **
Summer prec sq            -0.012 **        -0.005       -0.086 **
Fall prec                    -0.5           -0.6         -14.7 **
Fall prec sq               0.0055 *       0.0053 *      0.0586 ***
Mean flow                   9.4 **          -5.4          8.8 **
Farm area                  -0.1 **        -0.3 **        -0.0 **
Farm area sq                0.0 *          0.0 **         0.0 *
Elevation                   0.035         -0.0009         0.229
Log (household size)         22.9           10.1           62.4
Irrigate (1/0)             237.5 **
Household access to
  electricity (1/0)        66.6 **        47.7 **        233.2 *
Soil (geCU)                -631 **        -287 **          -540
Soil (ilqHS)               -387 **        -156 **        -1147 **
Soil (loMH)                -2181 **       -1959 **
Soil (vcFU)                -1180 **       -1006 **       -1719 **
Soil (lcMFU)               -295 **        -241 **
Soil (qc)                  1633 **        1726 **
Soil (ql)                  -482 **        -188 **
Soil (lcMS)                 -2153                        -6157 **
Soil (nd)                    214                         7051 **
Soil (lg)                  -199 **        -154 **
Soil (frFHS)               1428 **                         3212
Soil (ykCMUH)              1071 **          148
West Africa dummy           136 **         208 **          -285
North Africa dummy          457 **                        675 *
East Africa dummy          -186 **        -154 **          -361
Heavy machinery dummy      51.8 **        55.5 **         -60.8
Animal power dummy           10.4         49.3 **       -185.5 **
Constant                     -388           1081           -549
N                            8459           7238           1221
R2                           0.4            0.2            0.3
F                            63.6           32.4           46.3

Notes: * significant at 5% level ** significant at 1% level

Table 7: Marginal impacts of climate on net revenue (US$/ha)
(Evaluated at the mean of the Africa, irrigated and dryland sample)
Without regional dummies (From coefficients in Table 5)

Sample               Africa       Irrigated       Dryland
                   regression     regression     regression

Temperature         -28.3 **         33.6         -23.0 **
                     (-1.3)         (0.5)          (-1.6)

Precipitation       2.65 **          2.08         2.02 **
                     (0.36)         (0.06)         (0.47)

With regional dummies (From coefficients in Table 6)

Annual               Africa       Irrigated       Dryland
                   regression     regression     regression

Temperature         -28.5 **        35.04         -26.7 **
                     (-1.4)         (0.6)          (-1.9)

Precipitation       3.28 **          3.82          2.7 **
                     (0.44)         (0.13)         (0.63)

** significant at 1% level

Table 8: Africa-wide impacts from uniform climate scenarios

Impacts                    2.5[degrees]C    5[degrees]C
                           warming          warming

Dryland
[DELTA]Net revenue             -72.2            -120.4
($ per ha)                     (-16%)           (-30%)
[DELTA]Total net revenue       -22.6            -37.7
(billions $)

Irrigated
[DELTA]Net revenue             110.3            258.8
($ per ha)                      (9%)            (23%)
[DELTA]Total net revenue        1.4              3.4
(billions $)

Total (Africa)
[DELTA]Net revenue             -49.2            -95.7
($ per ha)                    (-11.3%)         (-21.9%)
[DELTA]Total net revenue       -16.0            -31.2
(billions $)

Impacts                    7%               14%
                           decreased        decreased
                           precipitation    precipitation
Dryland
[DELTA]Net revenue             -14.1            -28.3
($ per ha)                     (-6%)            (-11%)
[DELTA]Total net revenue        -4.4             -8.9
(billions $)

Irrigated
[DELTA]Net revenue             -15.9            -31.5
($ per ha)                    (-1.4%)          (-2.7%)
[DELTA]Total net revenue        -.21            -0.41
(billions $)

Total (Africa)
[DELTA]Net revenue             -18.3            -37.2
($ per ha)                    (-4.2%)          (-8,5%)
[DELTA]Total net revenue       -5.96            -12.1
(billions $)

Note: Using coefficients in Table 6 and changes to climate that
are uniform across Africa. The numbers in brackets represent the
percentage change in net revenue per hectare relative to the mean
of the sample.

Table 9: Climate predictions of AOGCM models for 2020, 2060 and 2100

Model                   Current      2020       2060       2100

CCC     Temperature      23.29      24.94      26.85      29.96
CCSR                     23.29      25.27      26.17      27.39
PCM                      23.29      23.95      24.94      25.79

CCC     Precipitation    79.75      76.84      71.86      65.08
CCSR                     79.75      73.99      76.67      62.44
PCM                      79.75      89.58      80.72      83.18

Table 10: Africa-wide impacts from AOGCM climate scenarios

Impacts                PCM       PCM       PCM      CCSR     CCSR
                      2020      2060      2100      2020     2060
Dryland
[DELTA]Net Revenue    231.6     196.2     199.7    -12.8    -82.8
($ per ha)           (73.3%)   (62.1%)   (63.2%)   (-4%)    (-26%)
[DELTA]Total Net
Revenue               72.4      61.4      62.5      -4.0    -25.9
(billions $)

Irrigated
[DELTA]Net Revenue    468.9     506.5     586.8     76.6    142.3
($ per ha)            (40%)     (44%)     (51%)    (6.7%)   (12%)
[DELTA]Total Net
Revenue                6.1       6.6       7.6      .99      1.8
(billions $)

Total (Africa)
[DELTA]Net Revenue    277.8     268.2     296.8     38.7    -58.7
($ per ha)            (63%)    (61.5%     (68%)     (9%)    (-13%)
[DELTA]Total Net
Revenue               90.5      87.4      96.7      12.6    -19.1
(billions $)

Impacts               CCSR     CCC       CCC       CCC
                      2100     2020      2060      2100
Dryland
[DELTA]Net Revenue   -128.9   -72.1     -92.1     -139.0
($ per ha)           (-40%)   (-22%)   (-29.2)    (-44%)
[DELTA]Total Net
Revenue              -40.3    -22.5     -28.8     -43.5
(billions $)

Irrigated
[DELTA]Net Revenue   -420.9    49.1     137.6     297.1
($ per ha)           (-36%)   (4.3%)    (12%)     (26%)
[DELTA]Total Net
Revenue               -5.5     0.6       1.78      3.9
(billions $)

Total (Africa)
[DELTA]Net Revenue   -82.7    -71.1     -72.6     -148.7
($ per ha)           (-19%)   (-16%)    (-17%)    (-34%)
[DELTA]Total Net
Revenue              -26.9    -23.2     -23.6     -48.4
(billions $)

Note: Using coefficients in Table 6 and AOGCM country specific
climate scenarios. The numbers in brackets represent the
percentage change in net revenue per hectare relative to the mean
of the sample.
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Title Annotation:A RICARDIAN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AFRICAN CROPLAND
Publication:A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland
Date:Aug 1, 2007
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