Recall ushers in summer of political turmoil.

With a measure to recall Gov. Gray Davis now virtually certain to make the ballot either this November or next March, the stage is set for one of the most bruising campaigns ever in the state of California.

The unprecedented recall election will present a bewildering array of scenarios and strategies, making the outcome wholly unpredictable. That's because it's really two elections in one: first, whether to recall Gov. Davis and second, who should replace him as governor.

"It is the ultimate application of game theory," said Roger Salazar, a Democratic consultant and political advisor to Davis.

Salazar and the Democrats will try to paint the recall campaign as a right-wing Republican takeover of state government, and they will then try to demonize the Republican opponents in the contest to replace Davis.

Meanwhile, recall proponents will try to tap into voter anger over the current fiscal and economic condition, seeking to put the blame squarely on Davis. They will point to the budget gridlock and any tax increases, including the recent tripling of vehicle license fees.

Beyond these general strategies, much will depend on who decides to run on the ballot to replace Davis.

"Nobody knows what's going to happen until we know who's going to be on the ballot, both on the Democratic and Republican side," said L.A.-based political consultant Allan Hoffenblum.

So far, only two candidates have openly declared their intention to run: Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, the multimillionaire car-alarm magnate who is funding much of the recall effort, and Green Party member Peter Camejo.

Other Republicans have indicated some level of interest: actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, former GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon and former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan (only if Schwarzenegger doesn't run).

Democrats' dilemma

On the Democratic side, all the major potential gubernatorial candidates holding statewide office have said they don't intend to run on a replacement ballot. That includes U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is by far the most popular Democratic politician in the state.

But in making their announcements, these Democrats have left open the possibility that they might change their minds should the situation warrant.

Who ultimately decides to run won't be known for certain until the recall is certified for the ballot. As of last week, proponents claimed they had more than the 897,158 signatures needed to qualify. But only 376,000 signatures have been officially certified, though telephone surveys of county registrars indicate that about 600,000 signatures have been turned in.

According to the state Constitution, recall organizers have until Sept. 2 to turn in the required number of signatures.

But they have imposed an earlier deadline of mid-July to turn in 1.2 million signatures to ensure that the measure gets on the November ballot, where a smaller, presumably more conservative, turnout is expected. If verification of the signatures were to slip past Sept. 3, the election would be consolidated to the March ballot, when more Democrats are expected to turn out for the Democratic presidential primary.

Last week, recall organizers said they were weighing whether to file suit against Secretary of State Kevin Shelley, whom they accuse of ordering county registrars to "go slow" on the verification of signatures to extend the process, thereby delaying the recall vote until March.

Recent polls show Davis' approval rating hovering in the 20 percent range, with at least half of likely voters saying that if the election were held today, they would vote to recall him.

"There is nobody in this state who thinks Davis has done a good job as governor," said Sal Russo, chief strategist for the Recall Gray Davis Committee. "As such, there is no countervailing force against the recall."

Beyond looking to tar Davis, recall proponents figure the best strategy is to field several candidates to run against him, blunting any direct counterattacks that Davis might launch. "It's going to be much more difficult to demonize several candidates," Russo said. "Ultimately, one will be left standing and will be the winner."

Forcing the governor to try to attack several candidates may backfire on Davis himself.

"He's going to have to be really careful if he tries this," said Bob Stern, President of the Center for Governmental Studies in Los Angeles. "It's easy to take down one candidate at a time, especially if it's a clear conservative like Issa or Simon. It gets much more difficult if you have a broad range of candidates arrayed against you. Saying that all of them are bad is more likely to make you look desperate."

Republican infighting 

But the Republicans face a downside themselves if their candidates focus more on the horse race amongst themselves than on the recall question.

"If you're asking me whether the Republicans are smart enough to blow this like they did last year, the answer is yes," said Hoffenblum. "The key is making sure that they follow Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment, which is 'Thou shalt not attack fellow Republicans.'"

Otherwise, he said, the candidates might be so consumed by sniping at each other that they distract from what needs to he the real focus of the campaign: getting more than 50 percent of voters to support the recall itself. The top vote getter wins the race to replace Davis, without having to win an absolute majority.

On the Democrat side, the strategy is to portray the recall effort as partisan sour grapes. The main emphasis will be to label the recall proponents as right-wing extremists bent on imposing their will on the rest of California even after they've been defeated at the ballot box.

"This is a pretty stark choice that's being presented to California voters: Do you want the results of last year's election to stand or do you want to allow a group of extremist Republicans and failed Republican candidates to overturn the will of the voters," said Steve Smith, who last month left his post in Davis' cabinet to serve as campaign manager for Taxpayers Against the Recall.

Beyond this, Smith said another theme would emerge: the chaos and uncertainty that would be unleashed should the recall succeed.

In this, the anti-recall campaign will take a page from the playbook of L.A. Mayor James Hahn and his campaign against secession last year. "We're going to point out how bad this whole process is for the state of California," Smith said. "It's bad for the state's fiscal situation, bad for the business climate, bad all the way around."

But unlike the secession issue, there is a genuine crisis in Sacramento, with the state running entirely on borrowed money as Republican and Democrat lawmakers are at loggerheads over how to close the record $38 billion budget deficit.

While any other candidate running in the replacement election may be able to squeak by with 20 percent or 25 percent of the vote, Davis will have to get 50 percent of voters to reject the recall. In a November election, his ability to accomplish this will depend largely on getting core Democrat supporters to the polls.

"A November election is going to be entirely about turnout," Smith said.

One thing that won't be a problem for either side in this election: money. Davis will be able to count on millions of dollars coming in from labor unions, trial attorneys and many businesspeople who have supported his previous campaigns. If any waver, he can always point out to them that a Republican governor may not be in their best interest.