Recall unleashes Sacramento scramble.

With an election to recall Gov. Gray Davis likely headed to the ballot either in November or March, the race for a replacement candidate has touched off the most intense political scramble the state has seen in decades.

The two critical dynamics are timing and poll results -- specifically when the election would be held and where Davis and the recall effort stand among likely voters as the filing deadline nears.

For Democrats, the question is whether -- and when -- to anoint one of their own without knowing for certain whether Davis will be recalled.

"It would be one hell of a crapshoot not to run somebody and count on the anti-recall campaign to win the day," said Hal Dash, president of Cerrell Associates, a Democratic political consulting firm.

For Republicans, the issue is whether to unify around one candidate to avoid splitting the vote. The GOP leadership wants a single candidate, but that might not stop others from jumping in.

"The party leadership cannot force people not to run," said Ken Khachigian, a Republican strategist advising Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, the conservative Republican caralarm magnate turned congressman who bankrolled the recall petition campaign.

Both sides face the prospect of tight timelines to make these decisions, possibly as little as 72 hours between the time that the election date is formally set and the candidates' filing deadline. That could be the scenario if a special election is called in early September for November. The filing deadline for a Nov. 4 election is Sept. 6.

Since there is little doubt that enough signatures have been gathered -- at least 1.6 million have been turned in to county registrars, well over the 897,158 required -- whether the election is called for November or March may well depend on the outcome of legal challenges to the signature gathering process. Last week, recall opponents filed suit in state court alleging several of the petition gatherers lived out-of-state, which, if true, would violate state law.

In a November special election, conservative Republicans are considered likely to be a disproportionately large share of the electorate, which would boost the recall's chances of success. An election consolidated onto the March primary ballot is generally considered a boost for Davis and the anti-recall forces, since large numbers of Democrats are expected to turn out for the Democratic presidential primary.

As for who decides to run, much could depend on the poll numbers.

Last week, the Field Poll showed 51 percent of likely voters supporting the recall and 43 percent opposed. That represents a slight gain for the recall from a 48 percent support level in a June poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

If support for the recall continues to grow and moves beyond 55 percent, candidates on both sides are likely to conclude there is a good chance Davis will be recalled and they will jump in. That's especially true for the state's top Democrats, who all have said they will not run -- for now.

"If it appears that Davis will lose the recall -- and by lose I mean upwards of 60 percent -- it's anybody's guess as to which Democrats will enter the race, but count on at least one of them entering," said Darry Sragow, an L.A.-based Democratic consultant.

Indeed, reports surfaced last week of closed-door meetings among top-level Democrats addressing this scenario. The San Diego Union-Tribune reported that Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, and the top-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives, told California colleagues that the party needed to get behind a candidate who could ensure that the governorship doesn't fall into Republican hands.

For months, that consensus candidate was U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Polls show that, if interested in running, she would be a formidable candidate. But Feinstein has said she has no interest in running. Further, because she fought off a recall challenge while Mayor of San Francisco, it's not clear she would run even if asked.

So now attention is turning to Leon Panetta, a former congressman and chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton. He is being touted as a "care taker" candidate who would serve the remaining three years of Davis' term and then step aside.

But if someone like Panetta were to run, it might be difficult to keep other Democrats off the ballot, analysts say. Democrats who don't have a lot of money and believe they might not be able to survive a bruising primary campaign in 2006 might be tempted to run this time.

Of all the Democratic candidates, Treasurer Phil Angelides and Attorney General Bill Lockyer have the deepest campaign war chests in preparation for that 2006 campaign.

Of course, if new polls show that the recall might lose -- even narrowly -- Democrats would likely stay off the ballot. That could very well happen, especially if a budget is passed in the next four or five weeks, before layoffs occur and paychecks are held up.

Republican scramble

On the GOP side, the effort by state Republican Party chairman Duf Sundehim to have a single consensus candidate on the ballot may have already failed.

For starters, Issa has already declared he's running for governor and set up a campaign office. Former gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon has said he intends to run, although he hasn't formally declared. So has Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks.

The real question is whether the two Republican "big guns" -- former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger -- will jump in. With their high name recognition and popularity, these are considered the two Republican frontrunners.

Riordan told the Business Journal last month he will not run if Schwarzenegger enters the race. And Schwarzenegger has put off his decision -- originally due around mid July -- until next month.

"Riordan and Schwarzenegger can afford to jump in at the last minute," Khachigian said. "For the rest, it's going to be a judgment on whether they can win in a sprint."

Assemblyman Keith Richman, R-Northridge, said on July 11 that he, too, was considering a run. Richman gained visibility with his decision to break party ranks and support a modest tax increase as part of the solution to the state's $38 billion budget deficit.

A New Governor?

Following is a rundown of the potential candidates for a replacement
vote on a recall ballot.

OFFICIALLY DECLARED OR STRONG INTENTION TO RUN

Candidate                    Party affiliation/title

Peter Camejo                 Green Party
Darrell Issa                 Republican Congressman




Bill Simon                   Businessman



Tom McClintock               State Senator


CONSIDERING RUNNING

Arnold                       Republican/actor
Schwarzenegger



Richard Riordan              Republican/Former L.A.
                             Mayor




Keith Richman                Republican Assemblyman
                             (from Northridge)




SAID THEY WON'T RUN-FOR NOW

Dianne Feinstein             Democrat/U.S. Senator






Phil Angelides               Democrat/State Treasurer


Cruz Bustamante              Democrat/Lieutenant
                             Governor

John Garamendi               Democrat/State Insurance
                             Commissioner
Bill Lockyer                 Democrat/State Attorney
                             General

Steve Westly                 Democrat/State Controller



Candidate                    Comments

Peter Camejo                 Straight-taking, but still
Darrell Issa                 fringe candidate
                             Conservative multimillionaire
                             funding recall movement;
                             brushes with law may come back
                             to haunt him.
Bill Simon                   Conservative; ran novice
                             gubernatorial campaign last
                             year and lost to weakened
                             Davis.
Tom McClintock               Conservative, lost race for
                             state Controller last year.

CONSIDERING RUNNING

Arnold                       Acting and celebrity icon; ran
Schwarzenegger               successful campaign for after
                             school programs initiative
                             last year, but still political
                             novice.
Richard Riordan              Moderate tops the polls of
                             potential GOP candidates;
                             inept campaign last year left
                             bad taste in GOP party. Said
                             will not run if Schwarzenegger
                             runs.
Keith Richman                Moderate; well-respected, but
                             little name recognition
                             outside San Fernando Valley
                             and little money for statewide
                             campaign.

SAID THEY WON'T RUN-FOR NOW

Dianne Feinstein             Most popular politician in
                             state; if she were to run,
                             would probably be elected. But
                             has real adversion to recall
                             process.
                             Husband's financial dealings
                             could prove a liability.
Phil Angelides               Viewed as rising star among
                             Democrats; can afford to wait
                             until 2006.
Cruz Bustamante              Popular Latino politician; can
                             also afford to wait until
                             2006.
John Garamendi               Popular, but dogged by
                             Executive Life scandal.
Bill Lockyer                 Liberal, has strong support of
                             labor unions and trial
                             lawyers.
Steve Westly                 Wealthy moderate Silicon
                             Valley businessman; still
                             political novice.