Realized potential or lost talent: high school variables and bachelor's degree completion.This study examined how background and high school variables affected participants in either realizing their potential by completing a bachelor's degree or experiencing lost talent by not completing a bachelor's degree. A sample of participants who had demonstrated above average cognitive ability and had high postsecondary educational goals when in 8th grade was selected from the National Education Longitudinal Study longitudinal study a chronological study in epidemiology which attempts to establish a relationship between an antecedent cause and a subsequent effect. See also cohort study. of 1988 (national longitudinal lon·gi·tu·di·nal adj. Running in the direction of the long axis of the body or any of its parts. data from 1988 to 2000; National Education, 2002). Several background and high school variables had strong effects on degree completion. Results were used to develop the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model. Implications for helping young people in their educational-career development are included. ********** Attainment of a bachelor's degree has increased in importance over the last several years. With regard to personal economic rewards, the earnings gap between those with and without bachelor's degrees has steadily widened over the last 3 decades (Wirt et al., 2000). With regard to occupational goals, a bachelor's degree is necessary for entry into many professional fields, and failure to complete a bachelor's degree forces career foreclosure foreclosure Legal proceeding by which a borrower's rights to a mortgaged property may be extinguished if the borrower fails to live up to the obligations agreed to in the loan contract. on many individuals. In addition, projections show continued growth in occupations for which a bachelor's degree is required (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) A research agency of the U.S. Department of Labor; it compiles statistics on hours of work, average hourly earnings, employment and unemployment, consumer prices and many other variables. , 2001). According to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. Adelman (1999), bachelor's degree attainment has gained increasing attention from government and policy perspectives, and bachelor's degree completion rates have become the accountability standard for higher education higher education Study beyond the level of secondary education. Institutions of higher education include not only colleges and universities but also professional schools in such fields as law, theology, medicine, business, music, and art. institutions. Young people seem to have responded to these economic, career, and sociopolitical so·ci·o·po·li·ti·cal adj. Involving both social and political factors. sociopolitical Adjective of or involving political and social factors realities. An increasing percentage of U.S. young people expect to attain bachelor's degrees and work in professional occupations (Rasinski, Ingels, Rock, Pollack pollack: see cod. pollack or pollock Either of two commercially important North Atlantic species of food fish in the cod family (Gadidae). , & Wu, 1993; Wirt et al., 2002). Wirt and colleagues reported that over the last 30 years, the Years, The the seven decades of Eleanor Pargiter’s life. [Br. Lit.: Benét, 1109] See : Time percentage of young people who enter college soon after high school graduation Graduation is the action of receiving or conferring an academic degree or the associated ceremony. The date of event is often called degree day. The event itself is also called commencement, convocation or invocation. has steadily increased. In the late 1990s, more than 60% of high school graduates were enrolled in college by the next academic year. Parents, high school counselors A school counselor is a counselor and educator who works in schools, and have historically been referred to as "guidance counselors" or "educational counselors," although "Professional School Counselor" is now the preferred term. , and high school teachers have also changed their views on postsecondary education. Rasinski and colleagues investigated the advice that adults provide to young people regarding college attendance, comparing responses of 1980 high school sophomores to those of 1990 sophomores. Students in 1990 were much more likely to report that parents, school counselors, and teachers recommended that they attend college. Bachelor's degree completion rates have risen over the last several years, with women showing the largest increases. Increases have also been evident for all U.S. racial-ethnic groups; however, the percentages of young Latinos and African Americans African American Multiculture A person having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa. See Race. who have completed a bachelor's degree remain considerably lower than the percentage for Whites (Wirt et al., 2002). Despite the social, political, economic, and career importance of bachelor's degree completion, there are surprisingly few studies of this outcome (Adelman, 1999). The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of back-ground variables and high school variables on realized potential versus lost talent. Data used were from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS NELS National Educational Longitudinal Study NELS North East Linguistic Society NELS Northwest European Loran-C System NeLS Next-Generation LEO System NELS Northeast Linux Symposium NELS Nursing Education Loan/Scholarship NELS NASA Electronic Library System :88; National Education, 2002), which followed students for 12 years. All participants in our sample scored above the mean on reading and math cognitive ability tests when they were in the eighth grade. At the same time, all participants also reported expecting to attain a bachelor's degree. Therefore, completing the bachelor's degree for this group of participants with early talent and high early expectations signifies realized potential. Inversely in·verse adj. 1. Reversed in order, nature, or effect. 2. Mathematics Of or relating to an inverse or an inverse function. 3. Archaic Turned upside down; inverted. n. 1. , not completing the bachelor's signifies lost talent. Independent variables specified for the present study were from Trusty's (2004) Long-Term Long-term Three or more years. In the context of accounting, more than 1 year. long-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss in the value of a security that has been held over a specific length of time. Compare short-term. Educational Development (LTED) model. The LTED model was developed with a sample of college-attending students of all cognitive ability levels. In contrast, studies of lost talent (Hanson, 1994; Trusty & Harris, 1999) are done with samples of young people who have above average levels of cognitive ability and plans for college. Therefore, lost talent models are qualitatively different in the cognitive ability dimension. Our purpose was to develop a model specific to the process of realized potential or lost talent. Literature Review The LTED Model The guiding model for the present study, Trusty's (2004) LTED model, is depicted de·pict tr.v. de·pict·ed, de·pict·ing, de·picts 1. To represent in a picture or sculpture. 2. To represent in words; describe. See Synonyms at represent. in Figure 1. The particular sample with which this model was developed was U.S. young people who (a) had started their postsecondary education within 2 years of graduating high school and (b) were attending college for the purpose of obtaining a bachelor's degree. Therefore, the LTED model is a general model of long-term educational development for U.S. young people who actively pursue bachelor's degrees. In Figure 1, thicker arrows signify sig·ni·fy v. sig·ni·fied, sig·ni·fy·ing, sig·ni·fies v.tr. 1. To denote; mean. 2. To make known, as with a sign or word: signify one's intent. stronger effects on degree completion. Students' high school course taking has the strongest effect on degree completion. Early math ability has a strong effect on intensive course taking in high school; course taking, in turn, positively influences degree completion. The socioeconomic status socioeconomic status, n the position of an individual on a socio-economic scale that measures such factors as education, income, type of occupation, place of residence, and in some populations, ethnicity and religion. (SES) effect is next in strength. The effects of high school behavior, gender, and race-ethnicity are relatively strong. The two high school behavior variables are students' good attendance (few instances of skipping skip v. skipped, skip·ping, skips v.intr. 1. a. To move by hopping on one foot and then the other. b. To leap lightly about. 2. school or cutting classes) and participation in school-sponsored extracurricular activities, and both of these effects are positive. Women are more likely than men to complete their bachelor's degree, and Asian Americans This page is a list of Asian Americans. Politics
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED] Effects in Trusty's (2004) analysis were surprisingly strong, considering that no college variables were included and that data spanned a substantial length of time. The background variables explained 24% of the variability in degree completion, and high school variables explained an additional 15%. Regarding course taking, for example, a one-high-school-unit increase in intensive math (Algebra algebra, branch of mathematics concerned with operations on sets of numbers or other elements that are often represented by symbols. Algebra is a generalization of arithmetic and gains much of its power from dealing symbolically with elements and operations (such as 2, trigonometry trigonometry [Gr.,=measurement of triangles], a specialized area of geometry concerned with the properties of and relations among the parts of a triangle. Spherical trigonometry is concerned with the study of triangles on the surface of a sphere rather than in the , precalculus pre·cal·cu·lus n. A course of study taken as a prerequisite for the study of calculus. pre·cal  cu·lus adj. , calculus calculus, branch of mathematics that studies continuously changing quantities. The calculus is characterized by the use of infinite processes, involving passage to a limit—the notion of tending toward, or approaching, an ultimate value. ) increased the odds of degree
completion versus noncompletion by 73%. A one-unit increase in intensive
science (biology, chemistry, physics) increased the odds of degree
completion by 45%, while controlling for the effects of all other
variables. A 1-standard-deviation increase in SES increased the odds of
degree completion by 62%. Trusty investigated the applicability of the
LTED model for racial-ethnic groups and found that the model did fit
well for Asian Americans, Latinos, and Whites. The model fit was not as
close for African Americans, but the fit was adequate.Bases of the LTED Model The variables specified in Trusty's (2004) study and the LTED model were derived from theory and from empirical evidence. The theoretical bases were Krumboltz's (1979) Social Learning Theory of Career Decision Making (SLTCDM), Krumboltz's (1996) Learning Theory of Career Counseling Noun 1. career counseling - counseling on career opportunities counseling, counselling, guidance, counsel, direction - something that provides direction or advice as to a decision or course of action (LTCC LTCC Lake Tahoe Community College LTCC Low Temperature Cofired Ceramic LTCC Long Term Consumer Care, Inc. LTCC London Traffic Control Centre (UK) LTCC Long Term Care Consultation LTCC London Terminal Control Centre ), and the Status Attainment Status attainment or status attainment theory deals largely with one’s position in his or her society. The idea behind status attainment is that one can be mobile, either upwardly or downwardly, in a form of class system. model (Sewell, Haller Hal·ler , Albrecht von 1708-1777. Swiss physiologist whose investigations into the structure of nerves and the relationship of nerves to muscles form the basis of modern neurology. , & Portes, 1969). Krumboltz's (1979) theory was developed with career decision making as the expressed outcome. However, the theory has a strong focus on young people's learning experiences, and it emphasizes the point that early learning experiences (e.g., high school course taking, participation in extracurricular activities) strongly influence later learning experiences (e.g., college success). From Krumboltz's (1979, 1996) perspective, variables such as course taking and college degree attainment are conceptualized both as learning experiences and as career-related actions. Krumboltz (1996), maintaining that the goal of career counseling should be to promote clients' learning, emphasized that the goal of career counseling has changed from the traditional focus on static, career-related choices. The Status Attainment model comes from the field of sociology and has been very useful in career development research (Hotchkiss & Borow, 1996; Trusty, 2002a) and career counseling (Leung, 1995; Trusty, 2002b). Educational attainment Educational attainment is a term commonly used by statisticans to refer to the highest degree of education an individual has completed.[1] The US Census Bureau Glossary defines educational attainment as "the highest level of education completed in terms of the and occupational attainment are the expressed outcomes in the model. Parental influences and SES effects traditionally have received the most attention in status attainment research. In the Status Attainment model (Sewell et al., 1969), background variables such as SES and academic ability influence early school achievement. These variables, in turn, influence parents, and parents influence their children's expectations for postsecondary education. Higher expectations lead to higher educational and occupational attainment. Regarding empirical evidence, the inclusion of high school course-taking variables was based on Adelman's (1999) results. Adelman used national longitudinal data to study the effects of high school and college variables on bachelor's degree completion; however, the main focus was on college variables. Data spanned from 1980 to 1993. Of all variables studied, two had the strongest effects on degree completion: the intensity of students' high school curriculum and the continuity of students' college enrollment. Adelman found that of all high school variables studied, taking intensive math courses in high school had the strongest effect on bachelor's degree completion. The effects of math course taking were stronger than the effects of high school grade point average or test scores. In Adelman's (1999) study, other seemingly seem·ing adj. Apparent; ostensible. n. Outward appearance; semblance. seem ing·ly adv. important high
school variables (i.e., attendance, extracurricular participation,
parenting variables) were not included. Several empirical studies Empirical studies in social sciences are when the research ends are based on evidence and not just theory. This is done to comply with the scientific method that asserts the objective discovery of knowledge based on verifiable facts of evidence. of
young people's educational development (e.g., Farmer, 1985; Hanson,
1994; Hossler & Stage, 1992; Trusty, 2000, 2002a; Trusty &
Harris, 1999) were the bases for inclusion of those variables. For
example, Farmer and Hossler and Stage reported strong effects of
parenting variables on adolescents' expectations regarding
postsecondary education. These studies were based on the Status
Attainment model.Realized Potential or Lost Talent The Status Attainment model has also been modified to generate research on lost talent (e.g., Hanson, 1994; Trusty & Harris, 1999). Hanson studied lost talent with a national sample of higher ability young people, quantifying lost talent in three ways: (a) participants who had postsecondary educational expectations (their realistic plans) that were lower than their educational aspirations aspirations npl → aspiraciones fpl (= ambition); ambición f aspirations npl (= hopes, ambition) → aspirations fpl (hopes or dreams), (b) participants who had reduced educational expectations over time, and (c) participants who had high expectations but had not attended college within 6 years of high school graduation. Trusty and Harris studied lost talent using Hanson's second indicator of lost talent (reduced expectations). These three indicators of lost talent have implications for long-term educational attainment; however, none of the three explicitly captured participants' postsecondary educational attainment, and none, therefore, explicitly captured lost talent. A much more valid indicator of lost talent--and inversely, realized potential--would be noncompletion or completion of the bachelor's degree. Trusty's (2004) study and LTED model used degree completion as the outcome; however, participants of all early ability levels were included in that study. Also, Trusty's study generalizes only to students who had actually attended college. Therefore, it was not precisely a study of realized potential or lost talent, because all students did not possess high early academic potential. A study of lost talent would need to include only students who demonstrated early talent and who had early expectations of attaining a bachelor's degree (see Hanson, 1994; Trusty & Harris, 1999). Although lost talent is not a common concept in the counseling and career development literature, it should be, given the roles of professional school counselors in young people's educational, career, and personal-social development (American School Counselor Association, 2003) and the roles of career counselors in empowering individuals to reach their potential and goals (Krumboltz, 1996). Method Participants We selected 3,116 young people from NELS:88 (National Education, 2002) for the present study. In specifying our sample and population, all participants scored above the mean on reading and math cognitive ability tests when they were in the eighth grade. Therefore, all showed signs of early talent. Additionally, all participants expected to later attain at least a bachelor's degree. Background variables were assessed when participants were in Grade 8 in 1988. High school variables were assessed when most were high school seniors in 1992. Degree completion data came from the year 2000, when participants had been out of high school for 8 years. In the NELS:88 study, Asian Americans and Latino Americans were oversampled to obtain a better representation from these groups. Sampling weights correct for this oversampling Creating a more accurate digital representation of an analog signal. In order to work with real-world signals in the computer, analog signals are sampled some number of times per second (frequency) and converted into digital code. and for nonresponse bias. We used the high school transcript A generic term for any kind of copy, particularly an official or certified representation of the record of what took place in a court during a trial or other legal proceeding. A transcript of record sample weight to redistribute re·dis·trib·ute tr.v. re·dis·trib·ut·ed, re·dis·trib·ut·ing, re·dis·trib·utes To distribute again in a different way; reallocate. our sample to reflect our particular population of U.S. young people. Our sample, therefore, is a representative, longitudinal sample of talented young people who attended middle school and high school in the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. (see Curtin, Ingels, Wu, & Heuer, 2002, for information on the NELS:88 sampling design). Of our participants, 55% were women and 45% were men. The majority were Caucasian Caucasian or Caucasoid: see race. Americans (86%), and the remainder were African Americans (5%), Asian Americans (4%), Latinos (4%), and Native American Indians American Indians: see Americas, antiquity and prehistory of the; Natives, Middle American; Natives, North American; Natives, South American. (1%). The students attended high school in urban areas (27%), suburban areas (45%), and rural areas (28%) located in the U.S. Northeast (23%), Midwest (29%), South (29%), and West (18%). The remainder (1%) had no data on region. Some students had not yet enrolled in postsecondary institutions within 8 years of high school graduation (7%); the majority had enrolled in private institutions (28%), public 2-year schools (17%), or public 4-year schools (46%). The remainder (2%) were missing data on type of postsecondary institution attended. Variables The dependent variable was whether young people had completed a bachelor's degree or not completed a bachelor's degree within 8 years after graduating from high school. In our sample, 64% had completed their bachelor's degree and 36% had not. Those who completed their bachelor's degree were considered to have realized their potential. Inversely, those who had not completed the bachelor's within 8 years of high school graduation were considered to have experienced lost talent. Background variables were gender, racial-ethnic group, and SES. The SES variable consisted of family income, parents' educational levels, and parents' occupational prestige Occupational prestige (also known as job prestige) refers to the consensual nature of rating a job based on the collective belief of its worthiness. History Job prestige did not become a fully developed concept until 1947 when the National Opinion Research Center (NORC), . The remaining independent variables were high school variables, two of which were high school behavior variables: attendance and extracurricular activities. Attendance was composed of three items from the 12th-grade student survey. Items assessed how often students were late for school, skipped classes, and skipped school. We inverted inverted reverse in position, direction or order. inverted L block a pattern of local filtration anesthesia commonly used in laparotomy in the ox. the items and summed them so that higher scores indicated better attendance behavior. The internal consistency In statistics and research, internal consistency is a measure based on the correlations between different items on the same test (or the same subscale on a larger test). It measures whether several items that propose to measure the same general construct produce similar scores. reliability for our sample was .62. The variable quantifying students' involvement in extracurricular activities was from one 12th-grade item. This item assessed the average hours per week in which students engaged in school-sponsored extracurricular activities using a scale from 1 (no hours per week) to 8 (25 or more hours per week). There were two variables quantifying parenting: parental involvement and parents' expectations. We developed the parental involvement variable from 10 NELS:88 items that quantified the degree to which high school seniors perceived that parents discussed educational and career concerns with them. The alpha coefficient coefficient /co·ef·fi·cient/ (ko?ah-fish´int) 1. an expression of the change or effect produced by variation in certain factors, or of the ratio between two different quantities. 2. for the present sample was .83. The parents' expectations variable came from one item on the 12th-grade parent survey. Parents indicated the highest level of education that they expected their children to attain by responding to a scale from I (less than high school) to 10 (doctoral degree). Two variables quantified the intensity of students' high school curriculum. From high school transcript data, we summed students' credits in biology, chemistry, and physics courses to create the science intensity variable. For the math intensity variable, we added credits in Algebra 2, trigonometry, precalculus, and calculus. Typically, one high school unit represents two semesters (one academic year) of a particular class. Data Analysis We used logistic regression In statistics, logistic regression is a regression model for binomially distributed response/dependent variables. It is useful for modeling the probability of an event occurring as a function of other factors. to analyze the effects of background and high school variables on bachelor's degree completion versus noncompletion. According to Adelman (1999), logistic regression is the most appropriate form of analysis for investigating degree completion. Logistic regression models the effects of a set of independent variables on a dichotomous di·chot·o·mous adj. 1. Divided or dividing into two parts or classifications. 2. Characterized by dichotomy. di·chot (two-category) dependent variable. Logistic regression coefficients (natural log odds betas, i.e., Bs) are transformed into odds to interpret the effects ([e.sup.B], 2.718[.sup.B]). Similar to the interpretation of betas (Bs) in ordinary least squares regressions, odds are interpreted as the factor by which the like-lihood (odds) of an outcome increases or decreases with a one-unit increase in the independent variable. For example, a logistic regression coefficient of .50 (B = .50) transforms to an odds of 1.65 (2.718[.sup..50] = 1.65). An odds of 1.65 is interpreted as follows: For every one-unit increase in the independent variable, the odds of the outcome increases by a factor of 1.65, or by 65%. In our logistic regression, background variables were first entered, followed by high school variables. In calculating the statistical significance of effects of independent variables on degree completion, we used root design effects (DEFTs) that we developed using AM Software (American Institutes for Research, 2003). We multiplied mul·ti·ply 1 v. mul·ti·plied, mul·ti·ply·ing, mul·ti·plies v.tr. 1. To increase the amount, number, or degree of. 2. Mathematics To perform multiplication on. the standard errors of logistic regression coefficients by the DEFTs to account for the NELS:88 two-stage sampling design. These inflated standard errors were used in calculating statistical significance (see Curtin et al., 2002). SES, high school behavior variables, and parenting variables were expressed in z scores, and, therefore, effects are standardized standardized pertaining to data that have been submitted to standardization procedures. standardized morbidity rate see morbidity rate. standardized mortality rate see mortality rate. logistic regression coefficients. Course-taking variables were expressed in their original form: high school credits. The standard deviations In statistics, the average amount a number varies from the average number in a series of numbers. (statistics) standard deviation - (SD) A measure of the range of values in a set of numbers. of these two variables were very close to the value 1, and, therefore, coefficients are comparable to coefficients for standardized variables The introduction to this article provides insufficient context for those unfamiliar with the subject matter. Please help [ improve the introduction] to meet Wikipedia's layout standards. You can discuss the issue on the talk page. . Results Results from the logistic regression analysis are presented in Table 1. Model 1 included the background variables only, and Model 2 included all variables. Gender had a relatively strong effect on realized potential versus lost talent (i.e., completion versus noncompletion of the bachelor's degree). Men were coded the value 1, and women were coded the value 2; therefore, the positive coefficient shows that women were more likely than men to realize their potential. Interpreting the odds for gender in Model 2 (odds = 1.65), the odds of degree completion versus noncompletion for women were 65% higher than the odds for men, given all variables in the equation. Note that this effect was stronger in Model 2 than in Model 1, indicating that high school variables accentuated the gender effect somewhat. Note also that the gender variable was not standardized, and in the standardized form, the percentage increase for women would be less than half the percentage increase in raw variable form (65%). The overall effect of racial-ethnic group membership was significant in both models. For specific racial-ethnic groups, only Asian Americans differed significantly from all groups taken together. With all other variables controlled (Model 2), the odds of Asian Americans attaining a bachelor's degree was more than twice as high as the odds for all groups taken together. Racial-ethnic differences became slightly smaller when high school variables were included (Model 2). The SES effect on realized potential was strong and positive and statistically significant beyond the .001 level. For this group of participants with early talent, a 1-standard-deviation increase in SES increased the odds of degree completion by 64%, while controlling for the effects of all other variables. The SES effect decreased slightly from Model 1 to Model 2, indicating that SES shared a modest portion of its effect with high school variables. The effects of high school behavior variables were positive and significant beyond the .001 level. A 1-standard-deviation increase in good attendance resulted in the odds of realized potential increasing by 51%. A 1-standard-deviation increase in participation in extracurricular activities increased the odds of realized potential by 33%. Both of these effects were independent of the effects of all other variables, including one another. The effect of parental involvement was positive but weak and nonsignificant non·sig·nif·i·cant adj. 1. Not significant. 2. Having, producing, or being a value obtained from a statistical test that lies within the limits for being of random occurrence. . The effect of parents' expectations was positive, relatively strong, and significant beyond the .001 level. A 1-standard-deviation increase in parents' expectations increased the odds of realized potential by 34%, while controlling for the effects of all other variables. The effects of gaining credits in intensive high school science and math courses were strong and positive, and both effects were significant beyond the .001 probability level. A one-credit increase in intensive science course taking increased the odds of realized potential by 37%. A one-credit increase in intensive math increased the odds of realized potential by 73%. These course-taking effects were independent of the effects of all other variables in the equation, including one another. That is, science course taking and math course taking were correlated cor·re·late v. cor·re·lat·ed, cor·re·lat·ing, cor·re·lates v.tr. 1. To put or bring into causal, complementary, parallel, or reciprocal relation. 2. with one another (r = .48). This and other evidence demonstrated that they shared in their effects on the outcome. With regard to effect sizes, the background variables explained 11% of the variability in realized potential versus lost talent. The added amount of variability explained by high school variables was 22%. Background and high school variables together explained 33% of the variability in realized potential or lost talent. The Realized Potential or Lost Talent Model Using the results from our analysis, we developed the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model. This model is presented in Figure 2. Background variables are in the left column, high school variables are in the middle column, and the dependent variable (whether participants had realized their potential or experienced lost talent) is in the right column. Effects are represented by the arrows in the figure, with the stronger effects indicated by thicker arrows. The course-taking effects are strongest; the effects of high school behavior and SES are next in strength; and parenting, gender, and race-ethnicity effects are weaker but still practically significant in the model. Effects in the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model (Figure 2) are similar to effects in Trusty's (2004) LTED model (Figure 1). Therefore, variables in the LTED model are applicable to the lost talent concept. However, results reveal quantitative differences between the two models. Overall, the effects of high school variables are stronger in the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model. In particular, the high school behavior variables (attendance, participation in extracurricular activities) and parents' expectations have stronger effects in this model. The effect of parental involvement is not included in the model because it was weak and nonsignificant in the analysis. Discussion and Implications We studied realized potential or lost talent with a longitudinal sample of U.S. young people. Prior to their high school careers, all participants demonstrated early talent and all had expectations of attaining at least a bachelor's degree. Realized potential was indicated by completion of the bachelor's degree within 8 years of high school graduation, whereas lost talent was indicated by noncompletion of the bachelor's degree within 8 years of high school graduation. It is important for the reader to be aware that the lost talent condition may be temporal Having to do with time. Contrast with "spatial," which deals with space. in some cases. That is, it is likely that some participants will realize their potential by completing their bachelor's degrees some time after our 8-year post-high school time frame. [FIGURE 2 OMITTED] Variables used in the present study were from Trusty's (2004) LTED model (see Figure 1), which is grounded in Krumboltz's SLTCDM and LTCC, in the Status Attainment model, and in empirical research Noun 1. empirical research - an empirical search for knowledge inquiry, research, enquiry - a search for knowledge; "their pottery deserves more research than it has received" . We found that almost all variables had statistically significant and practically significant effects on realized potential or lost talent. The background variables (gender, race-ethnicity, SES) accounted for 11% of the variability in realized potential versus lost talent. The high school variables accounted for an additional 22% of variability in the outcome. We first discuss the effects of the high school variables. Effects of High School Variables The high school variables that held practically significant effects on the outcome were attendance, participation in extracurricular activities, parents' expectations, and science and math course intensity. The strongest effect in the full model was from credits in intensive math courses. Finishing one additional credit in intensive math (Algebra 2, trigonometry, precalculus, calculus) increased the odds of realized potential by 73%. This strong effect is consistent with findings of Adelman (1999). The effect of intensive science course taking was weaker than the effect of math course taking. Science course taking and math course taking are related to one another, and the effects of the two are therefore more appropriately conceptualized holistically, as they are presented in the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model (Figure 2). The strong effects of intensive course taking illuminate il·lu·mi·nate v. il·lu·mi·nat·ed, il·lu·mi·nat·ing, il·lu·mi·nates v.tr. 1. To provide or brighten with light. 2. To decorate or hang with lights. 3. the career development salience sa·li·ence also sa·li·en·cy n. pl. sa·li·en·ces also sa·li·en·cies 1. The quality or condition of being salient. 2. A pronounced feature or part; a highlight. Noun 1. of students' high school learning experiences and career-related actions to their success in postsecondary learning environments. This strong effect is consistent with Krumboltz's (1979, 1996) SLTCDM and LTCC. It seems logical that what students spend most of their time doing in school (taking courses) has a strong bearing on later academic experiences (bachelor's degree completion). Note that all students in our sample entered high school with above average levels of ability and expectations to attain a bachelor's degree. Therefore, what young people do in high school over and above what they are capable of doing or expect to do makes a difference in whether their potential and goals are realized or if their talent is lost after high school. It is a traditional and appropriate role of counselors to help students perform to their potential and achieve their goals. Our results reveal an important means for helping young people realize their potential, namely helping them gain learning experiences and take actions (finish courses) consistent with their ability levels and goals. Our results point squarely square·ly adv. 1. Mathematics At right angles: sawed the beam squarely. 2. In a square shape. 3. to the importance of individual education-career planning to long-term educational-career development. Systematic planning can help students construct learning experiences and develop necessary skills that lead to actions conducive con·du·cive adj. Tending to cause or bring about; contributive: working conditions not conducive to productivity. See Synonyms at favorable. for completion of a bachelor's degree. Our results support the contention that the paths toward realized potential or lost talent diverge diverge - If a series of approximations to some value get progressively further from it then the series is said to diverge. The reduction of some term under some evaluation strategy diverges if it does not reach a normal form after a finite number of reductions. early in students' educational careers. As a result, students need help with individual planning in middle school and earlier, because paths toward intensive high school course work actually begin during middle school. High school Algebra 1, for example, is offered in the eighth grade in many school systems. High school behavior variables had strong effects on realized potential for this group of young people with early talent, with the strongest effects from attendance behavior. A 1-standard-deviation increase in good attendance behavior increased the likelihood of completing the bachelor's degree by 51%. It seems natural that students who demonstrate good attendance behavior in high school would likewise have good attendance behavior in college. Students who participated more in school-sponsored extracurricular activities were also more likely to realize their academic potential. The effects of these nonacademic variables were relatively strong, suggesting that counselors should pay attention to both nonacademic and academic variables in helping young people realize their long-term educational goals. The effect of parents' expectations was moderate, relative to other effects, but statistically significant and important to the model. This finding is consistent with the Status Attainment model (Hossler & Stage, 1992; Sewell et al., 1969; Trusty & Harris, 1999). Considering that all participants themselves had expectations for at least a bachelor's degree, our results show that parents' expectations positively affect their children's educational attainment over and above their children's own expectations. Parents are an important resource in their children's long-term educational and career development (Farmer, 1985; Trusty, 2000, 2002a), and our results imply that counselors should inform parents of the positive influence of their expectations and encourage and support parents in their support of their children. Our results regarding the high school variables show that when students are academically engaged through intensive science and math courses, and when they are engaged through good attendance and involvement in extracurricular activities, they are much more likely to realize their potential. Parents' engagement in their children's educational and career development also helps. Therefore, counselors could use the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model to conceptualize con·cep·tu·al·ize v. con·cep·tu·al·ized, con·cep·tu·al·iz·ing, con·cep·tu·al·iz·es v.tr. To form a concept or concepts of, and especially to interpret in a conceptual way: and address students' academic and social engagement with the school. The model is also useful for showing counselors what to do on a programmatic pro·gram·mat·ic adj. 1. Of, relating to, or having a program. 2. Following an overall plan or schedule: a step-by-step, programmatic approach to problem solving. 3. level. For example, school counselors should advocate for an intensive high school curriculum that meets the needs of students. Not all schools offer calculus or even precalculus in their curricula, and this is especially true in schools in lower SES areas. Positive school climates encourage students' academic and social engagement, and school counselors should work to create school environments that encourage engagement. Community-based collaborations and programs involving all types of counselors and helping professionals could also be vehicles for fostering young people's social and academic engagement. Effects of Background Variables The effect of SES was strong, with a 1-standard-deviation increase in SES resulting in a 64% increase in the likelihood of degree completion, taking all other effects into account. The strong effect of SES is consistent with previous research on lost talent (Hanson, 1994; Trusty & Harris, 1999) and college degree completion (Adelman, 1999; Trusty, 2004). SES affects all types of academic achievement, but it is logical that SES would have more profound effects on postsecondary educational attainment than on other achievement outcomes because more family, social, and economic resources are required for attainment of college degrees than, for example, scoring well on tests. Lower SES students, therefore, will need particular attention and resources to realize their potential, and counselors in various settings (e.g., schools, communities, colleges, and universities) are in a position to help young people develop family, personal, social, and economic resources. The effects of other background variables were also relatively strong. Being a woman increased the likelihood of realized potential by 65%. This finding is consistent with the current trend regarding gender and college degree completion (see Wirt et al., 2002). That is, more young women than young men are now completing bachelor's degrees. One reason for this may be that the stakes are higher for women than for men. In 1998, young men who had a bachelor's degree earned 56% more than men with only a high school diploma A high school diploma is a diploma awarded for the completion of high school. In the United States and Canada, it is considered the minimum education required for government jobs and higher education. An equivalent is the GED. . In the same year, young women with a bachelor's degree earned 100% more than women with only a high school diploma (Wirt et al., 2000). Regarding racial-ethnic group membership, Asian Americans were most likely to realize their potential. Differences among other racial-ethnic groups were not large and not statistically significant. Conservatively, we can only say that Latinos, African Americans, Whites, and Native Americans did not compare favorably fa·vor·a·ble adj. 1. Advantageous; helpful: favorable winds. 2. Encouraging; propitious: a favorable diagnosis. 3. with Asian Americans regarding realized potential. Conclusion The Realized Potential or Lost Talent model developed in the present study explained a substantial portion of the variability in lost talent. Effects of high school variables were particularly strong, over and above the effects of background variables. The effects of intensive course taking, high school attendance, extracurricular activities, and parents' expectations are evidently important to the realized potential or lost talent process. Effects of high school variables in the present study were stronger for our sample of participants with high early ability than for the general sample of college-attending, degree-seeking participants in the Trusty (2004) study and LTED model. Whereas the LTED model and the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model are similar in that they include many of the same variables, they are qualitatively different conceptually. Our results also revealed quantitative differences, with stronger effects of high school behavior variables and parents' expectations in the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model. We posit that the concept of realized potential or lost talent is useful for counselors. Helping people realize their potential is consistent with the behavioral behavioral pertaining to behavior. behavioral disorders see vice. behavioral seizure see psychomotor seizure. , humanistic hu·man·ist n. 1. A believer in the principles of humanism. 2. One who is concerned with the interests and welfare of humans. 3. a. A classical scholar. b. A student of the liberal arts. , and multicultural mul·ti·cul·tur·al adj. 1. Of, relating to, or including several cultures. 2. Of or relating to a social or educational theory that encourages interest in many cultures within a society rather than in only a mainstream culture. foundations of the counseling profession. When young people do not realize their potential, the negative personal consequences are likely to be pervasive pervasive, adj indicates that a condition permeates the entire development of the individual. and enduring. There are also negative societal so·ci·e·tal adj. Of or relating to the structure, organization, or functioning of society. so·ci e·tal·ly adv.Adj. consequences. We assert that the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model is useful for several reasons: (a) The model is practical; (b) the outcome--bachelor's degree completion--is practically important to young people's career development; (c) the model explains a practically significant portion of the variability in realized potential or lost talent; (d) it targets what young people spend most of their time doing in their high school years, namely, taking courses and participating in extracurricular activities; (e) the model identifies where students, counselors, teachers, parents, and schools should focus their attention, and it implies what all these stakeholders Stakeholders All parties that have an interest, financial or otherwise, in a firm-stockholders, creditors, bondholders, employees, customers, management, the community, and the government. should do to help young people realize their potential; and (f) the model is comprehensive. It includes gender, racial-ethnic, family, and socioeconomic so·ci·o·ec·o·nom·ic adj. Of or involving both social and economic factors. socioeconomic Adjective of or involving economic and social factors Adj. 1. contexts and identifies important high school variables across broad areas of students' functioning. It is also comprehensive in a longitudinal-developmental sense, because data used to develop the model spanned 12 years, from high school to 8 years after high school graduation. The model helps counselors and others concerned about young people's career development take a broad and holistic Holistic A practice of medicine that focuses on the whole patient, and addresses the social, emotional, and spiritual needs of a patient as well as their physical treatment. Mentioned in: Aromatherapy, Stress Reduction, Traditional Chinese Medicine view of the process of realized potential or lost talent and the process of career development. When counselors take this holistic perspective, boundaries between and among college counselors, school counselors, career counselors, mental health counselors A mental health counselor is a professional who provides counseling to individuals, couples, families, groups, or larger systems. A mental health counselor may also have training in educational and vocational counseling (MacCluskie & Ingersoll 2001). , and others become less rigid. The same can be said regarding boundaries between counselors and teachers and other school personnel. As evidenced by our results and Adelman's (1999) results, young people's experiences in high school are definitely connected to their experiences in college. College-level counselors and high school counselors, therefore, should also be connected, sharing information and resources and articulating programming to help young people capitalize on Cap´i`tal`ize on` v. t. 1. To turn (an opportunity) to one's advantage; to take advantage of (a situation); to profit from; as, to capitalize on an opponent's mistakes s>. their strengths.
TABLE 1 Logistic Regression Models of Effects on Realized Potential or
Lost Talent (N = 3,116)
Model 2
Model 1 SE Odds
Variable B SE B (a) Odds B B (a)
Background
Gender 0.41*** 0.13 1.51 0.50** 0.15 1.65
Race-Ethnicity (b)
Asian American 1.01*** 0.29 2.74 0.88* 0.38 2.41
Latino -0.21 0.26 0.81 -0.21 0.33 0.81
African American 0.15 0.27 1.17 0.15 0.34 1.16
White -0.05 0.19 0.95 0.02 0.24 1.02
Native American -0.90 0.41 -0.83 0.43
SES 0.58*** 0.10 1.79 0.50*** 0.07 1.64
High school behavior
Attendance 0.41*** 0.06 1.51
Extracurricular
activities 0.29*** 0.08 1.33
Parenting
Parental involvement 0.10 0.06 1.11
Parents' expectations 0.29*** 0.08 1.34
Course taking
Science intensity 0.31*** 0.08 1.37
Math intensity 0.55*** 0.08 1.73
Note. SES = socioeconomic status. Nagelkerke [R.sup.2] in Model 1 =
.114, in Model 2 = .334.
(a) Standard errors were adjusted upward using root design effects.
(b)Race-ethnicity overall differences were significant, p < .01 in Model
1 and p < .05 in Model 2. Race-ethnicity was deviation coded, with
Native American group as the comparison category. The B for this group
was calculated as the negative sum of coefficients for other groups, and
the odds were calculated from Bs (e.g., 2.718[.sup.-90] = .41).
* p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001.
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