Ready for another round? Relatively quiet for almost a decade, the issue of Quebec separatism seems to be bubbling up to the surface again.

The year 2005 has been a poor one for Canadian unity. It started out with the Canadian flag absent from provincial buildings in Newfoundland. The province's premier hauled down the maple leaf in anger over what he said was unfair treatment by Ottawa. Sales of "Free Newfoundland" T-shirts on the island were brisk.

In the spring, stories of Liberal Party sleaze emerged from the enquiry of Judge John Gomery into the federal sponsorship scandal. This prompted Westerners to get angry all over again at Ontario for sending enough Liberal NIPs to Ottawa in the 2004 election to allow the party to cling to power.

Renewed mutterings about Western separatism were heard in Alberta.

By early summer, Ontario was complaining that it was being milked by all the have-not provinces to the tune of $5 billion a year. People outside Ontario held the view that the rich province should quit whining.

When gasoline prices spiked in late summer, most Canadians thought it would be nice if Alberta shared its oil wealth. A fall 2005, survey found that 55 percent of Albertans believe that provincial resources belong to all Canadians; 76 percent of non-Albertans held this view. Alberta's Premier Ralph Klein was not in a sharing mood. He told Canadians to keep their hands off Alberta's oil and that got every, body ticked off.

Early winter brought the first report from Mr. Justice John Gomery. He described a program aimed at keeping Quebec in Canada that channeled money into the Liberal Party. That got everybody mad at Quebec. If the province didn't keep threatening to separate the sponsorship program wouldn't have been needed, went the reasoning. Quebeckers responded to the anger of the rest of Canada by increasing their support for the separatist Parti Quebecois.

Yes, 2005 was a bad year for national unity. It was much like most other years in this difficult-to-govern land.

As usual though, ground zero for unity grumbling was Quebec.

In October 2005, columnist Jeffrey Simpson wrote in The Globe and Mail: "A decade after the referendum that nearly broke up Canada, it's amazing how little has changed in Quebec and how much things have changed elsewhere."

Mr. Simpson says Canadians outside Quebec are tired of the endless wrangling. He claims that the general attitude now is that it would be nice if Quebec stayed as part of Canada, but, if it goes, so be it.

Inside Quebec, public opinion polls show the population is as divided as it was on the day of the 1995 referendum. Sentiment for and against separation wobbles back and forth; sometimes a small majority, in favour, sometimes a small majority against. It was not supposed to be this way.

Federalist forces got the fright of their Lives in 1995. The government of Prime Minister Jean Chretien sleep-walked through most of the sovereignty referendum campaign. Only at the last minute did Ottawa wake up to the notion that the country was on the verge of breaking up. A huge "We love you" rally was organized in Montreal. Canadians from across the country flocked to Quebec to tell the people they wanted them to reject separatism.

(Jeffrey Simpson says the gathering didn't do much good anyway. On its tenth anniversary he wrote: "Academic analyses suggested that the rally helped the [separatists]. Some Quebeckers considered the rally a belated gesture at best, an intrusion at worst. The rally made the rest of Canada feel better about itself but did not make Quebeckers feel better about the rest of Canada.")

In the end, Quebeckers voted by a tiny margin to stick with Canada. The referendum vote was such a squeaker that Ottawa's top people decided to do something--anything--to save the country. What they came up with was the sponsorship program.

Hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on raising the profile of Canada in Quebec. The people of the province could not attend a fishing derby, car show, or baseball game without having the maple leaf flag waving at them. Lapel pins, balloons, and cocktail napkins with the maple leaf on them were somehow going to persuade Quebeckers to put the boot to the separatists.

We now know the whole scheme was a boondoggle.

First, Auditor General Sheila Fraser and then Judge John Gomery found that Canadian taxpayers were swindled out of many millions of dollars through the sponsorship program. Various advertising agencies billed massive sums for work they never did. Others engaged in an illegal kickback scheme that funneled money back into the Quebec wing of the federal Liberal Party.

During the testimony before Judge Gomery's enquiry, Quebeckers were riveted to their televisions. Many were deeply insulted by the revelations that cheap tricks had been used to try to buy their allegiance to Canada. Others were embarrassed by the corruption and concerned that the rest of Canada might think it typical of all Quebeckers.

After, Mr. Justice Gomery's first report was released, opinion polls showed an increase in popularity for the separatist Bloc Quebecois to 52 percent of decided voters. The Liberal Party, which used to win almost every seat in Quebec, was now the choice of only 20 percent of the population.

So, a plan that was intended to sell the benefits of staying in Canada had the opposite effect. In the upcoming federal election the Bloc Quebecois will almost certainly win the lion's share of the province's 92 seats, perhaps as many as 65. (The Bloc won 54 seats in 2004).

And, while federalist forces are loosing popularity on the national scene they are also taking a drubbing provincially.

Under the leadership of Jean Charest, the provincial Liberals won control of Quebec's government in the April 2003 election. Mr. Charest is a firm federalist and opponent of separatism. But, it didn't take long for his government to fall out of favour.

He got into a fight with Quebec's powerful unions over weakening labour laws. He started downsizing government. He bumped up the cost of child care and electricity. And, he tinkered with Quebec's beloved social programs. All these actions, referred to as "re-engineering the state" are deeply unpopular in Quebec.

Within a year of its election victory, the Quebec Liberal Party had plummeted in popularity like no other government before it. A CROP poll, done for La Presse in October 2005, found 69 percent of Quebeckers were unsatisfied with the Liberal government's performance. Most observers say it's hard to see how Mr. Charest's government can dig itself out of the pit it's in and win the next provincial election, perhaps in 2007.

Meanwhile, the Parti Quebecois (PQ) has chosen a new leader. Andre Boisclair is young and dynamic.

The Parti Quebecois platform, adopted in June 2005, calls for a referendum "as soon as possible" following a PQ election win. Shortly after an easy win in the leadership campaign, Mr. Boisclair said holding a sovereignty referendum was a top priority for him.

Of course, the Parti Quebecois will have to become the government if it intends to hold another referendum. However, that doesn't look like a problem at present; if the public opinion polls are right the PQ will be almost certain winners of the next provincial election in Quebec. Such a victory would bring about a strong separatist Bloc Quebecois presence in Ottawa and a newly popular separatist government in Quebec City.

What some people call the perfect separatist storm.

SUGGESTED ACTIVITIES:

1. An article in The Washington Times in the spring of 2005 predicted that Canada might soon become "the world's next failed state." A typical scenario for this has Quebec separating to become an independent nation. Alberta joins the United States and British Columbia follows Quebec's example. The Atlantic Provinces hook up with New England, and Newfoundland goes back to being a British colony. Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and the Territories soldier on as what's left of Canada. Do you think this is a believable prediction? Discuss. 2. In October 2005, a group of prominent Quebeckers released a 10-page document calling for a radical change in how the province should be governed. Facing an aging population and the competitive nature of globalization, the group says Quebec must move to a more right-wing economic model to avoid financial collapse. It calls for raising university tuition fees, culling soda/programs, lifting hydro rates, reducing the provincial debt, increased privatization, and tax reform. To a large extent, the document endorses the policies OJ" Premier Jean Charest. Appoint a team of students to examine the report and lead a discussion of its contents. The English version can be found at--http://www. pourunquebeclucide.com/documents/ manifesto.pdf.

Websites

CBC (Parti Quebecois Timeline)--http://www.cbc.ca/ news/background/ parti_quebecois/

Centre for Research and Information on Canada--http://www.cric.ca/ en_html/index.html

Clarity Act--http://laws. justice.gc.ca/en/C31.8/33882.html

FACT FILE

According to the Centre for Research and Information on Canada "Three out of four Canadians, including a significant majority of Quebeckers, prefer a federal system to any other kind." This information comes from an October 2004 survey.

FACT FILE

In October 1995, 93.5% of Quebeckers voted in the referendum on whether or not the province should begin negotiations to separate from Canada; 49.4% voted Yes and 50.6% voted No. The separatist plan was defeated by a margin of just 55,000 out of 4.8 million votes cast.

FACT FILE

The Centre for Research and Information on Canada found that 49 percent of Quebeckers polled in September 2005 would have voted "Yes" to a question similar to the one in 1995's referendum. However, when asked whether they wanted Quebec to become "a completely independent country" support fell to 34 percent.

RELATED ARTICLE: Disconnect.

Provincial premiers are fond of slagging Canada. Danny Williams of Newfoundland said Canada "betrayed" the province over oil revenues. Alberta's Ralph Klein warned Canadians to "keep your hands off" the province's oil. Quebec's Lucien Bouchard once famously declared that "Canada is not a real country."

However, average Canadians feel much more warmly towards one another. Here's a September 2005 report from The Globe and Mail: "The results (of a recent poll) show a level of commitment to Canada by those provinces that belies the long-held view of Quebec and Alberta as the 'crybabies' of Confederation."

A solid majority of Quebeckers believe their province contributes the same or less to the rest of Canada than it gets back. This contradicts the separatist claim during the 1995 referendum that Quebec was Canada's "cash cow." Also, 60 percent of the province's people said they think of themselves as Canadians first or Canadian and Quebeckers equally.

Two thirds of Albertans agree with the statement that their province "contributes more to the rest of Canada than it gets back." However, less than half of the province's people thought this was a "bad thing." Indeed, 13 percent of Albertans said their oil wealth should be shared equally with all Canadians.

RELATED ARTICLE: Let's be clear.

How the question in a referendum is phrased is crucial to the outcome of the vote. The last two separatism votes in Quebec have featured fuzzy questions. In the first in 1980, Quebeckers were asked to give the "Government a mandate to negotiate sovereignty association with the rest of Canada." Only 40 percent of voters supported this "soft" question. In 1995, the question was even more indirect and came very close to winning approval.

Enter the Clarity Act. This is former Prime Minister Jean Chretien's attempt to force the separatists to ask a clear question in any future referendum. Such a question would be: "Do you want Quebec to become an independent country?" In addition, the act says that to have any effect, the referendum would have to be won by a "clear majority," without spelling out what that might be.

The Clarity Act became law in 2000 and it sets up what many foresee as a knock-'em-down-drag-'em-out fight with Quebec.

Here's a typical reaction: "The conditions surrounding the conduct of an eventual referendum must be determined by the Quebec National Assembly. I say that we, Quebec parliamentarians, will allow no other parliament or government to reduce the powers, the authority, the sovereignty, and the legitimacy of the National Assembly." And, that's staunch federalist Jean Charest speaking.

The separatist Parti Quebecois makes it clear it will ask whatever question it wants. Former party leader Bernard Landry said, "It is up to Quebec to decide if its question is clear or not, to interpret it, and to make use of the result" If Ottawa refuses to recognize the question, "we will pay no heed at all," he said.

"The Parti Quebecois will make a formal declaration of independence in the days that will follow a winning referendum."