Reach for the sky.

Living in Latin America, where the economic cycles are faster and often more obvious, one gets to understand perfectly well when things are going good--and when they are careening toward a crash. In Santiago, we used to watch the cranes. If a city begins a building spree, watch out, it won't last. But, about the time that the last crane is dismantled, things usually have turned around enough to put a spring in bankers' steps. It won't be long before the cranes are back.

Of course, the same thing happens in the developed world, just more in some cities than others, and it's harder to tell if a crane that has come to a stop is a recession in the offing or just a lawsuit between a developer and the city. Diversification can make an economy stronger (although not bombproof), but much harder to read. That blessing of diversification is starting to happen across Latin America. The boom-and-bust cycles are flattening out as political handoffs become less chaotic (this is a big election year, yet no one is up in arms over most of the votes; see our Brazil coverage in this issue). Even countries run by unreconstructed leftists seem to be in a bubble of prosperity unlikely to pop soon.

Take a look at the Hot 50, our ranking of the region's fastest-growing small businesses. Last year it was companies related to supplying farmers and miners. This year there are shoe makers, toy companies and real-estate firms. If you can read the economic tea leaves, it seems clear that the prosperity enjoyed by commodities-oriented businesses last year has filtered up to the manufacturers and exporters. That's good news.

But watch the cranes. They might have a little predictive power left in them yet.

--Greg Brown [e-mail]

PS. US. Internet search giant Google already has Latin America cornered. What more could they want? Why, everything of course. (Page 20)