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Rate freeze just the tonic for real estate market.


The Federal Reserve left interest rates at 5.25% for the second straight time at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, indicating that the moderation in economic growth in recent months would be enough to curb lingering inflation concerns.

The Fed paused its series of 17 consecutive quarter point interest rates hikes first at its August meeting for fear of stifling the economy and to allow the increases--which lifted interest rates from a historical low of 1% beginning at the Fed's June 2004 meeting--time to take hold.

"This allows them to let the medicine they injected into the system have an effect," said Gary Gabriel, a managing director and investment sales broker for Cushman & Wakefield in New Jersey.

Inflation has remained a persistent foe despite the rising rates however. According to according to
prep.
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.

2. In keeping with: according to instructions.

3.
 Department of Labor statistics, the Consumer Price Index hovered at 2.2% for the first half of 2006, just above the Fed's threshold and unchanged from levels at the end of 2005.

But there is evidence that the existing rates hikes in tandem Adv. 1. in tandem - one behind the other; "ride tandem on a bicycle built for two"; "riding horses down the path in tandem"
tandem
 with present economic conditions will be enough to further curb the CPI (1) (Characters Per Inch) The measurement of the density of characters per inch on tape or paper. A printer's CPI button switches character pitch.

(2) (Counts Per I
 without bringing short-term rates immediately higher.

GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine.  growth has dampened from roughly 5% in the first quarter to 3% in the second quarter and stood at 2.9% by the end of August, a gradual slowdown that the Fed attributed to a weakening residential real estate market.

Energy prices, which have been a key factor in spurring inflation, meanwhile have dropped as well. Trading at a record high of just over $78 per barrel in June, oil is now selling in the low $60s per barrel.

"Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand," the Fed's statement read.

The trends create positive conditions for the commercial real estate industry. Interest rates, although far from their rock bottom 1% levels in 2004, remain low historically and have not had the effect of unraveling the unprecedented levels of appreciation commercial real estate assets have undergone in major markets such as New York New York, state, United States
New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of
, Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region,  and Washington DC.

That appreciation has been based on more than the widespread recognition in recent years of real estate as a mainstream investment among institutional investors Institutional Investor

A non-bank person or organization that trades securities in large enough share quantities or dollar amounts that they qualify for preferential treatment and lower commissions.
, but also on the anticipation among many landlords that economic growth will boost future cash flow in the form of higher rents and occupancy.

Many feel that if the Fed can continue to avoid rate hikes, or keep inflation at bay with a few quarter point nudges here and there, the economy shouldn't suffer and real estate metrics metrics Managed care A popular term for standards by which the quality of a product, service, or outcome of a particular form of Pt management is evaluated. See TQM.  will continue to tighten.

Such measures have already significantly improved in Manhattan over the past two years, especially in midtown mid·town  
n.
A central portion of a city, between uptown and downtown.


midtown
Noun

US & Canad the centre of a town
, which is inching towards historically low vacancy rates and high rents.
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Article Details
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Title Annotation:Banking & Finance
Author:Geiger, Daniel
Publication:Real Estate Weekly
Date:Sep 27, 2006
Words:479
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