Rate Roulette.

What's going on with postal rates?

It's like spinning the roulette wheel and trying to guess the winning (or losing) number as the wheel picks up speed. "Round and round it goes, where it stops -- nobody knows!"

For nonprofit organizations that rely upon the mail to raise funds or disseminate information, the games played during the next few months represent very high stakes.

The decision on the next postal rate increase is expected from United States Postal Service (USPS) headquarters at anytime. Meanwhile, here's a look at the game board:

* The R2000-l postal rate case (the rate increases that you've been paying since January) keeps going and going and going. The USPS Board of Governors just remanded the rate case back to the separate Postal Rate Commission (PRC) for a second time.

* The USPS Board of Governors may add another $600 million to $1 billion to the rate base as soon as possible. The effects on your rates are unknown. Nonprofit mailers are still in jeopardy for $26 million in hikes on Standard mail. The $26 million figure comes from a difference in calculation by the PRC that the USPS and intervening mailers like the Alliance agreed could wait to be resolved in the next rate case.

* The USPS is ready to file another rate case proposal as soon as June. That proposal may increase rates by as much as $6-$8 billion -- or three times the last rate hike.

* Fearful of runaway expenses and shrinking volumes and revenues, postal officials and mailers alike continue to holler on Capitol Hill for postal reform. But besides the creation of a commission to study postal operations, nobody seems to have a consensus on any other elements for postal change.

Potential rate increase

If the USPS does reject the PRC Recommended Decision Part m (and there's no time table for PRC action in the latest remand), then the Board of Governors may act unilaterally to add another $600 million to $1 billion to the rate base as soon as possible. And remember, nonprofit mailers are in jeopardy for $26 million in hikes on Standard mail.

There are some who believe that the governors may target a limited number of classes, categories and rate cells to arrive at a quick infusion of cash. For instance, an increase in the extra ounce rate for First-Class mailers -- from 21 to 22 cents (the original USPS proposal) -- would generate an additional $450 million. Other increases imposed on Special Service categories would generate enough revenue to arrive at a $600 million target.

But for nonprofit fundraisers and publishers, it is important to remember that -- until the USPS Board of Governors announces its intentions -- all classes and categories remain in play.

Or a rate filing

The USPS Governors met in the shadow of the Alamo in San Antonio last month and ordered USPS management "to begin preparing a rate case as soon as possible to ensure the continued financial viability of the Postal Service." Little has changed since then as USPS finances and volume figures continue to show sluggish returns.

The governors have even taken the extraordinary step of freezing spending on a large number of capital projects in hopes of saving some cash.

However, senior USPS officials threaten that the USPS will file another rate case proposal as soon as June. Furthermore, we are told that the proposal may increase rates by as much as $6-$8 billion -- or three times the last rate hikes.

However, it won't be senior USPS officials who make that decision. The Board of Governors of the USPS recently met in Washington to discuss, among other urgent agenda items, the options available besides a large rate filing. Also, a new postmaster general should arrive soon with an entirely different agenda.

Sizzling summer

Meanwhile, fearful of runaway expenses and shrinking volumes and revenues, postal officials and mailers alike continue to holler for "Postal Reform Now!" The only problem is, nobody can begin to map out a consensus of what types of legislative changes should be pursued. While most tend to agree that a Presidential Commission to Study Postal Stuff would be a good step toward examining the long-term future of the mail, most also agree that immediate, short-term needs must be addressed in this Congress.

However, unless and until someone at the top of the postal food chain -- maybe even someone at the White House -- decides what it is we need the Postal Service to be, we may all just be stumbling in the dark. It's almost impossible to "get there" unless one knows where it is that one's trying to go and where to place the bets.

Any good news?

Barely. The Postal Service has submitted a plan to issue five more semi-postal "charity stamps" beginning in 2002. The new program will issue five semi-postals, each two years apart, beginning in 2002.

According to the USPS, the Breast Cancer Research stamp has raised more than $20 million. And now other nonprofit and charitable causes will be considered for a semi-postal. The USPS has outlined a procedure that will call for public suggestions for stamp ideas this spring. The Citizen Stamp Advisory Committee will review the suggestions. The postmaster general will hold final review.

The subjects suggested must be "human welfare issues," for a cause that is addressed by a federal agency because the USPS does not want to become involved in disbursing funds.

The proposals will be accepted through the end of June and then reviewed by the Advisory Committee at the July meeting. Subjects for the 2002 and 2004 stamps will be chosen then. The process will be repeated in subsequent years.

Neal Denton is the executive director of the Alliance of Nonprofit Mailers in Washington, D.C