RUSSIA - Mar 2 - Kasyanov Hints At Run For Russian Presidency.

Even as Vladimir Putin is being ticked off by Pres Bush in Bratislava last week for his authoritarian tendencies, cracks are spreading in Putin's previous aura of invincibility at home. Putin's former PM Mikhail Kasyanov, chose the same day - the anniversary of his sacking by the Putin last year - to launch an attack on his former boss's policies. Russia, he said, was "on the wrong track". Its fragmented democratic opposition had to unite. Moscow newspapers, still allowed to engage in some political debate unlike Russia's state-controlled TV channels, have run analyses this week comparing Kasyanov with Viktor Yushchenko, the reformist, pro-western winner of Ukraine's presidential election in December and victor over Viktor Yanukovich, the Kremlin-backed candidate. Asked if he would run for Russian president in 2008, Kasyanov said: Everything's possible". Yet his press appearance last week, ostensibly to launch a new consultancy, followed weeks of rumours in Moscow that he would run. It has left Putin (or his chosen candidate, since he cannot stand for a third term without changing the constitution) facing a credible challenger from within Russia's political elite for the first time. "What's important", said Kasyanov, "is not who is elected in 2008, but that whoever is should lead Russia along the path of democratic values". His intervention was timely. A series of errors by Putin's entourage and the Russian government have made the last few months the rockiest in his five-year presidency. First came the bungled intervention in Ukraine's election, then the messy renationalisation of a large chunk of Yukos oil company. Finally, a mishandled reform of social benefits provoked demonstrations by thousands of pensioners and dented Putin's popularity ratings. A poll by Russia's Public Opinion Foundation, published by Nezavisimaya Gazeta Mar 2, found that Putin's approval rating had fallen to a record low of 42% in February. There are also important parallels with Yushchenko. Like him, Kasyanov is telegenic and charismatic, a physically imposing figure. Both served as PMs and led successful liberal reforms before being sacked and going into opposition. Kasyanov aspires to do what Yushchenko did in uniting opposition forces. Unlike Yushchenko, however, he is closely identified with the interests of Russia's "oligarchs", the bankers and industrialists who used their wealth to gain political influence under Boris Yeltsin. Kasyanov has also been touched by suggestions of corruption. He was nicknamed "Misha 2 per cent" by the media after a Russian weekly claimed he profited from his role in negotiating restructuring Russia's foreign debt, as deputy finance minister in the late 1990s. He denies the accusations. Despite this, Boris Nemtsov, former leader of one main liberal group, the Union of Right Forces, said he would "not exclude the possibility" that Kasyanov could become leader of the group. Grigory Yavlinsky, however, leader of Yabloko, another democratic party, and a former presidential contender, has given Kasyanov a cool reception. Nemtsov also warned that the Kremlin would seek to discredit the former premier. That process seems to have begun already. Two other candidates chose last Feb 25 to announce their own plans to run for president in 2008. Gennady Seleznev is a former speaker of the Russian parliament. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the ultra-nationalist, has stood twice before. Some Russian political analysts said the two might have been encouraged by the Kremlin to divert attention from Kasyanov. One prominent pro-Kremlin commentator on the country's main TV channel on Feb 28 night seized on the fact that Kasyanov had recently visited Washington, portraying him as a puppet of the west. A political analyst Kirill Rogov, says attempts to blacken Kasyanov could backfire on Putin who appointed him premier in 2000 and kept him for four years. He adds Kasyanov may even serve an important function by reminding Russians that a "normal", free election is still possible in Russia and that alternatives to Putin exist. But, he says, despite the superficial similarities, it is too soon to call him Russia's Yushchenko. "We will only know in two or three years' time. He has a big journey ahead".