ROUGH ROAD AHEAD OBSTACLES ABOUND FOR RIORDAN ON PATH TO SACRAMENTO.

Former Mayor Richard Riordan will try to convince the delegates at this week's state Republican Party convention that he's the best, maybe the only hope, that Republicans have to derail Gov. Gray Davis' re-election bid next year.

In a head-to-head contest with Davis, polls show that Riordan does much better than other potential Republican candidates - Secretary of State Bill Jones and Los Angeles financier William Simon. But to get his party's blessings, Riordan must allay fears that he's too liberal, too willing to compromise with labor unions and too anxious to endorse and toss his money to Democrats to help them get elected.

But getting his party's approval will probably be the easiest obstacle for Riordan to overcome. The swift-shifting ethnic and political changes in California and the liability of President George W. Bush will be much bigger obstacles. Bush virtually threw in the towel on California before his presidential campaign barely got off the ground. He made a few token appearances, delivered perfunctory speeches and quickly exited the state.

The short shrift he gave the state doomed him and Republican congressional and Assembly candidates and incumbents to an even more miserable showing that they might have made if Bush had seriously contested the state.

But Bush merely sized up the state's political mood. In every election for the past three decades, the Democrats have consistently racked up 70 percent to 80 percent of the black and Latino vote. In the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections, Clinton got more than 80 percent of their vote. In 1998, Davis bagged 85 percent of their vote in his gubernatorial bid.

Things could get even worse for Republicans. Latinos now make up more than one-third of the state's population and cast nearly 3 million votes. They still fume at the anti-immigrant, anti-affirmative action Propositions 187 and 209 California Gov. Pete Wilson and the state's Republicans shoved down their throats. Latino leaders continue to bitterly denounce both measures.

Bush and California Republicans are working hard to undo the damage by promising a kinder, gentler immigration policy and to dump more funds into small business, health and education programs. But it is still not enough to wash away the horrid taste the bruising political assault of Wilson years left in the mouths of many Latinos.

The politically powerful and influential Latino Caucus in the state Legislature will almost certainly pull out all stops to remind Latino voters of the Democrat support of and Republican hostility toward Latinos. While Riordan is known and liked by Latino voters in L.A., his name kindles little recognition in the rest of the state. He's much more likely to be seen by Latino voters in those parts as just another Republican who would harm their interests.

Riordan faces a similar problem with Asian voters. While they are more likely to vote in greater numbers for Republicans than Latinos, Riordan is barely known among Asian voters outside L.A. And Asian elected officials for the most part are staunch Democrats.

Riordan has also been knocked for doing little to court the black vote as L.A. mayor. This could come back to haunt him. While the number of black elected officials in state offices has disastrously shrunk during the past decade, and the black population growth has stagnated in the state in comparison to Asians and Latinos, they are still solidly Democratic and pose a formidable voting bloc. The top-heavy support they gave Jim Hahn for L.A. mayor helped propel him past his opponent Antonio Villaraigosa.

Riordan might be sorely tempted to dodge black voters, but this will ensure an even more solid black vote for Davis and the Democrats, and reinforce the deep belief that Republicans are the arch-enemies of African-Americans.

If the economy slips further into recession and job layoffs mount, Democrats will gleefully shout see-I-told-you and remind the state's voters that Republican policies invariably bring economic misery to minorities, the poor and workers. Their cry will resonate big with the state's resurgent union movement. Union leaders are rock-solid Democratic and will do everything they can to paint the Republicans as anti-labor and exhort workers to pull the lever en masse for every Democrat on the ballot.

While it's not a pretty political picture for Riordan, it's not total political doom and gloom either. Riordan can tout his stable and efficient record as L.A. mayor, tap a personal bank account that can match Davis' massive campaign war chest, corral Republicans to unite behind him, finger point at Democratic bumbles on the energy crisis and hope for a Davis scandal or two.

This could turn the contest into a respectable horse race. But as long as the majority of voters perceive that the Democrats are pro-minorities, labor and perform better on the economy than the Republicans, the obstacles Riordan faces on the path to Sacramento will not be easy to overcome.

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Former Mayor Richard Riordan waves to media during a march to celebrate the city's 220th birthday Sept. 3. Riordan, who may run for governor, spent about $6.3 million of his own money running for mayor in 1993 and 1997.