ROTATION KEY TO SUCCESS.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI

The hot-stove hullabaloo has been about Adrian Beltre and Jose Valentin, Shawn Green and J.D. Drew, Alex Cora and Jeff Kent. The jolting changes in the everyday lineup. The almost all-new batting order.

But the success of this Dodgers' winter always was going to be judged by what they did with starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.

Last season, in the final month of baseball around here, starting pitching nearly kept the Dodgers from the division title and absolutely killed them in the playoffs. From Sept. 10, when the Dodgers' six-game lead over San Francisco began to wither, to Oct. 10, when they were bombed out of a first-round series by St. Louis, they played 27 games. Dodgers starters recorded four victories in that stretch to go with 10 defeats and 13 no-decisions, and not even Eric Gagne was going to save them from that disgraceful performance down the stretch.

Maybe the only sure thing about the 2005 Dodgers is that that won't happen again.

``We feel like our starting pitching is going to rank up there with any starting pitching in the game,'' general manager Paul DePodesta was crowing Wednesday afternoon in the Stadium Club.

If it doesn't prove to be quite that good, it does look a lot better than it did.

The occasion of DePodesta's proclamation was the news conference to introduce Derek Lowe, signed away from the Boston Red Sox to a four-year contract that's worth $36 million and makes him the club's highest-salaried starter.

Lowe joins a rotation that includes holdovers Odalis Perez (rescued from the free-agent pile this week), Brad Penny (said to be feeling good after arm problems) and Jeff Weaver, and figures to have a fifth-starter combo of holdovers Kaz Ishii, Wilson Alvarez, Elmer Dessens and Edwin Jackson.

The 6-foot-6 right-hander steps into the assignments vacated by the departures of Jose Lima, who pitched the Dodgers' first postseason victory in 15 years against St. Louis and will be missed, and Hideo Nomo, who pitched more bad baseball than anybody in the major leagues last year and will not.

Was it only a week ago that people around here were wondering if manager Jim Tracy would be able to fill out a five-man rotation?

There are still questions to be answered.

Is Lowe, at age 31, the pitcher who went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA and finished third in American League Cy Young Award voting for Boston two years ago, or the one who went 14-12 with a 5.42 for the World Series champion Red Sox last year?

(DePodesta loves Lowe's 98-starts-in-three-years durability, thinks he was a hard-luck victim last season and points to his big-game wins in all three of Boston's postseason series clinchers.)

Is Perez a winner, or a pitcher who gives up one run more than his teammates hammer out, or - worse - the pitcher who flamed out in two playoff starts?

(Perez points out that he was distracted at playoff time by his mother's emergency heart surgery, and DePodesta expects improvement from the 26-year-old.)

Is Penny going to give a full season after a biceps strain and nerve injury made a waste of his trade-deadline acquisition from Florida?

(Penny was spotted playing catch in the Dodger Stadium outfield Wednesday, and DePodesta believes Lowe's arrival eases the pressure on Penny to hurry his spring buildup.)

Is Weaver the 3.60 pitcher of April through August or the 6.64 pitcher of September and October?

And, after Ishii was banished from Tracy's rotation twice in 2004, will he go for three in '05?

First things first. Who'll be the No. 1 starter who'll face the Giants' Jason Schmidt when the Dodgers open the season April 4 at SBC Park?

Last year the Dodgers led with Nomo, who lasted five innings in an 8-2 opening-day loss to San Diego on his way to an 8.25 ERA for the season. This time the choices would seem to be Lowe or Penny. A big step forward whichever way they go.

The Dodgers may not have a clear No. 1 starter, but 1 through 4 they're solid and even Ishii isn't bad for a fifth hand.

Take the National League West's projected rotations, add up the individuals' 2004 numbers, and the Dodgers (56-49) are second in victories to San Diego (61-61) and second in win percentage to San Francisco (54-33). And the Dodgers have the hope of big improvements from Perez (7-6) and Penny (9-10). So it could be better than the superficial stats would suggest.

St. Louis, remember, went to the World Series without an ''ace'' but with four starters earning 15-16 wins.

``I'd like to think our (top) four guys are maybe even better (than the Cardinals'),'' DePodesta said. ``In the same breath, our offense isn't what theirs was last year, for sure. But I think our pitching staff, as a whole, can be right near the top of the league. And if we can be in the middle of the pack offensively, as we were last year, that's a combination that can put us right in contention.''

L.A. Dodgers teams have always gone as far as the starting rotation takes them. It happened as far back as the prime of Johnny Podres. It happened last year in the twilight of Hideo Nomo.

Here's a stat to warm your winter.

From Aug. 30 on, Dodgers starters had six wins last season.

Derek Lowe had five all by himself.