ROSY ECONOMY FORECAST OUTLOOK IS SUNNY DESPITE TROUBLE SPOTS, SAYS UCLA SURVEY.Byline: Chris Sieroty Staff Writer Despite higher gasoline prices and a diminishing supply of homes, California's economy is expected to continue to expand in the coming years at a rate not seen in more than a decade, a University of California, Los Angeles UCLA comprises the College of Letters and Science (the primary undergraduate college), seven professional schools, and five professional Health Science schools. Since 2001, UCLA has enrolled over 33,000 total students, and that number is steadily rising. , survey predicts. The survey released Wednesday by the UCLA UCLA University of California at Los Angeles UCLA University Center for Learning Assistance (Illinois State University) UCLA University of Carrollton, TX and Lower Addison, TX Anderson School Anderson School may refer to:
``This is a truly stellar performance, particularly when you realize that we didn't grow at all for the first half of the 1990s,'' said Rajeev Dhawan, director of econometric modeling at UCLA and author of the survey. Despite the rosy picture painted by the Anderson survey, one prominent economist not associated with the survey warned that Southern California's economic expansion could be curtailed by increased gasoline prices, a prolonged bus drivers strike and several possible strikes that are looming on the horizon. ``The basic fundamentals look rather good, but there is just enough factors out there that now is the time for a more cautious stance,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the for the Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850. Economic Development Corp., a nonprofit group that tracks and promotes the five-county Los Angeles area's business community. The Anderson survey sees few clouds on the horizon. Employment grew by 2.2 percent for the year to date in Los Angeles County, compared with 1.6 percent in 1999. In Ventura County, employment growth declined to 3.5 percent from 4.2 percent last year. The strength of California's international markets will also contribute to continued job growth for the rest of this year and next in areas such as wholesale trade and transportation, said Dhawan. A slower state growth rate, 2.4 percent, forecast for nonfarm employment in 2002 should reflect an overall slowing in the domestic economy, Dhawan said. Overall, the California economy has grown on average by 3.2 percent in the last five years, a rate not seen since the 1980s. ``The only problem is the housing market, which could create a drag on Verb 1. drag on - last unnecessarily long drag out last, endure - persist for a specified period of time; "The bad weather lasted for three days" 2. the state's economy,'' he said. ``Affordability will become an issue down the road, if high home prices prompt residents to leave or prevent newcomers from settling in the state.'' Kyser disagreed, saying affordability is already an issue. ``The issue of home prices is already a problem if you go to the Bay Area. It is starting to cause some distortions not only in Silicon Valley, but in other parts of the state.'' Stockton, for example, has experienced an increase in home prices because of refugee dot-com companies leaving Silicon Valley and migrating to less expensive areas, he said. According to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. a recent report by the California Association of Realtors, the median price of a home in the Golden State rose to a record $255,580 during August. The price was 14 percent higher than the August 1999 median price of $224,200. New residential construction in California for the first-quarter of 2000 was the best seen in almost 10 years, the Years, The the seven decades of Eleanor Pargiter’s life. [Br. Lit.: Benét, 1109] See : Time UCLA forecast said. However, both sales and permits were down in April, they picked up the pace in June in spite of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes. Dhawan said some weakness was noted in the July numbers, but the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes should be felt later this year. What helped save the housing sector this summer have been rallies in the Nasdaq market and a drop in the 10-year bond rate that lowered the mortgage rate from its highs in early summer, he said. Still, this year should turn out to be a good year for new construction, with 150,000 new permits compared with 140,000 in 1999. The next two years will also be relatively good ones for construction, with 145,000 new permits predicted for 2001, and 153,000 for 2002. Construction employment, currently the highest in history, is nearing 749,300 in California, and in August was 9.4 percent higher than the year- ago total. California's employment growth has been double the national rate for the last year and that trend is expected to continue, said Dhawan. The state's unemployment rate, recently erratic but rising and currently at 5 percent, will hold steady at this level for the next 12 months. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1 percent to 4.4 percent next year, he said. Meanwhile, Central California Central California can refer to one of several divisions or regions of the U.S state of California:
The high unemployment figures reflect the fact that the region's economy remains based on agriculture, said Kyser. In Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, , inland Riverside and San Bernardino San Bernardino, city, United States San Bernardino (săn bûr'nədē`nō), city (1990 pop. 164,164), seat of San Bernardino co., S Calif., at the foot of the San Bernardino Mts.; inc. 1854. counties continued to lead the state in employment growth - an increase of 5.2 percent through May. ``The reason this is going on is Southern California has always had an area that was its hot zone,'' said John Husing, a regional economist with Economics & Politics in Highland. ``Previously it was the San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills. , San Gabriel Valley The San Gabriel Valley is one of the principal valleys of southern California. It lies to the east of the city of Los Angeles, to the north of the Puente Hills, to the south of the San Gabriel Mountains, and to the west of the Inland Empire. and Orange County. It just happens to be the Inland Empire's turn.'' Husing said another reason for the amazing a·maze v. a·mazed, a·maz·ing, a·maz·es v.tr. 1. To affect with great wonder; astonish. See Synonyms at surprise. 2. Obsolete To bewilder; perplex. v.intr. job growth is that most of the rest of Southern California is running out of space to build industrial or commercial facilities. ``As a consequence of that if they want to build new facilities they are almost forced to go to the Inland Empire In·land Empire A region of the northwest United States between the Cascade Range and the Rocky Mountains, comprising eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana. Farming, lumbering, and mining are important to the area. , whether they want to or not,'' he said. ``Because we have the space, it's also cheaper to build.'' Consumer spending Consumer demand or consumption is also known as personal consumption expenditure. It is the largest part of aggregate demand or effective demand at the macroeconomic level. remains anything but cautious. As measured by taxable sales, the survey predicts that sales will continue to reflect strength in personal income and employment gains. The 1999 increase of 9.9 percent in statewide taxable sales will be followed by gains of 10.9 percent this year, 5.6 percent in 2001 and 5.3 percent in 2002. The survey predicts that total immigration immigration, entrance of a person (an alien) into a new country for the purpose of establishing permanent residence. Motives for immigration, like those for migration generally, are often economic, although religious or political factors may be very important. will average slightly less than 250,000 people annually through 2002 and the overall population should grow by 1.6 percent per year for the same period. As for exports, Dhawan predicted the strong gains experienced in 2000 would continue to grow in 2001 and beyond. After showing a modest gain of 2.4 percent in 1999, state exports posted a 21.2 percent year-to-year increase in the second quarter. Mexico continued to be the leading destination for California exports, increasing 34.5 percent over last year. California's second-largest trading partner Japan showed a gain of 18.3 percent in the second quarter, while Canada was third, followed by South Korea and Taiwan. CAPTION(S): chart Chart: CALIFORNIA'S ECONOMIC FUTURE The state's strong economy is expected to continue its impressive expansion over the next couple of decades SOURCE: UCLA Anderson Forecast Daily News |
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