ROAD TO NOWHERE? BEING DRAFTED BY SAINTS COULD BE WORST THING FOR PRO CAREER OF BUSH OR LEINART.

Byline: Billy Witz Staff Writer

When Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, living the A-list life in college, allow their minds to drift toward their future as pros, they probably don't envision themselves using a high school baseball dugout as a locker room, lifting weights under a tent or getting booted out of their stadium for a volleyball tournament.

Nor do they likely picture themselves making a new life in a city that feels more abandoned than alive, where football is now a diversion rather than a passion.

And yet it's a future that may await them.

As the NFL enters its final weekend, chances are that the New Orleans-San Antonio-Baton Rouge Saints, who were displaced this season by Hurricane Katrina, will end up with one of the top two picks in the draft, giving them a chance to draft Bush or Leinart.

Houston has the worst record in the NFL at 2-13, but plays Sunday at San Francisco, which is one of four teams - along with Green Bay, New Orleans and the New York Jets - with a 3-12 mark.

If the Saints lose their finale at Tampa Bay, they would likely secure the second pick since their opponents have the worst record among the contenders, the criteria the NFL uses to break ties in the draft order. If the Texans also win, the Saints have a strong shot at ending up with the first pick.

Bush and Leinart said they'll wait until after Wednesday's Rose Bowl to give the NFL more thought, but acknowledged that the Saints would be different from any other possible destination.

``It's a tough situation,'' Bush said. ``When that time comes I'll deal with it.''

Leinart said he was touched by what Tulane players went through after meeting several of them recently at a college football awards show.

``It's a tragedy,'' Leinart said. ``The Tulane players and the Saints in San Antonio have been able to focus and play a season. Maybe it's not a great season, but anybody who went through that, it's tough.

``We'll see what happens. Wherever I go, I'll do whatever I can to help that team win.''

An advisor to Bush was less diplomatic.

``From a marketing standpoint, it would be terrible,'' he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. ``There's not even a city to market the player to. The ideal thing for Reggie is to go to Houston.''

The Saints' immediate future may come into focus as early as today, when NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue is expected to meet with Saints owner Tom Benson in San Antonio and then address the team.

The league is working on finalizing where the Saints will play their home games in 2006, although a split schedule is likely since the Superdome is not slated to re-open until Nov. 1.

Also to be settled is whether or not the team will remain headquartered in San Antonio - where they've operated most recently out of a building that had been slated for demolition - or return to New Orleans, where their headquarters and practice facility were untouched by the hurricane but where large tracts of the city still remain uninhabited and without electricity.

Tagliabue is also having ongoing talks with the NFL players' union about incentives for players to join the Saints in the offseason. Each player who stayed with the team all season was recently given $40,000 from a union fund.

There are also questions about whether Benson could afford Bush or Leinart. If the top pick commands in the neighborhood of $26-28 million in guaranteed money, as would be expected, there is some speculation that Benson could not afford it with the losses he's taken this year and the $15 million payment he is due from the state of Louisiana next July in jeopardy. The Saints, without that subsidy last year, would have ranked 31st in the NFL in revenue, according to Forbes magazine.

The Saints are also expected to have a hard sell in front of them to attract free agents. General manager Mickey Loomis did not return a phone call seeking comment, but several Saints recently told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that they wouldn't come back if they had a choice.

A telling sign may be what happens with the Saints' only Pro Bowler, center LeCharles Bentley, who is a free agent after the season.

``Right now, there's just not enough information,'' said agent Peter Schaeffer, who represents Bentley. ``From a player's perspective, a commitment to winning is going to be important. You want a stable situation, great homes, a family atmosphere - they're going to want to have that in place. Right now, they don't even know where they're going to be so it's just too premature.''

Paul Swangard, the director of the Warsaw Sports Marketing Center at the University of Oregon, said Bush and Leinart would lose out on endorsement opportunities locally and nationally.

The New Orleans business community remains decimated, limiting the number of sponsors that would be interested in tie-ins with the team. Also, the Saints' low profile restricts them to mostly regional broadcasts, and thus less exposure for national sponsors, such as shoe companies or soft drink companies.

``Next to the Harlem Globetrotters, they're the most nomadic sports franchise we've known,'' Swangard said of the Saints. ``That presents tremendous challenges to be competitive financially, especially when they were subsidized before Katrina, and competitive on the field.

``It's harder for Matt or Reggie to walk into New Orleans and transform that franchise. There's too many moving parts to think anyone would come in and electrify the fan base. In Arizona, you've got a new stadium. In Tennessee, you've got some consistency in the coaching staff and a loyal fan base. In New Orleans, you'd be hard pressed to say anything is stable except the uniforms.''

If it looks like a good business decision to steer away from the Saints, it is also a delicate one. Eli Manning, despite his brother and father being the picture of class, was pilloried when he told the Chargers that he wouldn't play for them if they chose him first overall in 2003. Manning got his wish, being traded to the New York Giants.

Anyone who spurns New Orleans is likely come under attack, as FEMA, the Bush Administration and Benson have found out.

``Manning was just a straightforward I-want-to-play-in-a-big-market play,'' said agent Jerome Stanley, who has helped broker trades of his client, Keyshawn Johnson, to Tampa Bay and then Dallas. ``This is a cultural, social, disasteral nexus that somebody's walking into.

``This is bigger than where one person wants to play football. The league has this issue, the country has this issue. If a football player was to dig his heels in, it could be suicidal.''

However, others suggest a player's agent would discreetly seek a trade of the pick, even if it means brokering a deal.

``When you do it, the artistry of it is to fulfill the player's desire without the world ever knowing,'' said one agent, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ``It's tricky because you have egomaniacal billionaire owners that don't want to be told by a despicable agent or a snot-nosed kid what do with their money. But at the end of the day, the only thing anybody should see is the player standing up at the draft with a smile on his face.''

Billy Witz, [phone]

billy.witz(at)dailynews.com

CAPTION(S):

4 photos

Photo:

(1 -- color) MATT LEINART

Quarterback Matt Leinart has completed 254 of 391 passes for 3,450 yards, with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Keith Birmingham/Staff Photographer

(2 -- color) REGGIE BUSH

Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush has rushed for 1,658 yards and 15 touchdowns on 187 carries this season, and has also caught 31 passes for 383 yards and two touchdowns.

(3 -- color) no caption (Reggie Bush's jersey)

(4 -- color) no caption (Matt Leinart's jersey)