RMA projects a 4% increase in tire shipments.

Tire shipments for 2004 are expected to increase by 4.1% compared to 2003 due to broad-based economic growth in the consumer and commercial sectors. This is expected to continue over the next several years as the economy continues its moderate growth pattern, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association.

The group projects continued annualized growth of approximately 2% for total tire shipments through 2009, reflecting increases in the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production index (IPI).

Overall, the combined original equipment (OE) and replacement shipments for 2004 auto and truck categories are anticipated to increase by 12.6 million units to nearly 323 million units compared to 2003's 310.3 million total shipments. By 2009, this figure is projected to be approximately 356 million units.

RMA's Tire Market Analysis Committee forecast for key categories and their respective segments for 2004 through 2009 include:

Original equipment passenger tires

A decline of a little more than 1 percent to approximately 54 million units is projected for 2004 as domestic auto production decreases and passenger cars continue to account for less of the total percentage of overall light vehicle sales. Little growth is expected through 2009 as total shipments stabilize at nearly 56 million units, owing to a slowing of domestic auto production and increased sales of off-shore vehicle imports.

Original equipment light truck tires

An increase of 400,000 units to 8.3 million units is expected for 2004 as the sport utility and light truck vehicle markets continue to grow and more of these vehicles are fitted with the LT tires. Shipments are expected to top out at 8.9 million units by 2009 for an annualized growth rate of 1.3%. Note that this market also incorporates service trailer tires.

OE medium/wide-base truck tires

Sales of commercial truck vehicles will increase through 2006 to meet economic and industrial growth. The net effect will be 32% growth, or an approximate 1.2 million unit increase in OE shipments for 2004 to 5.5 million units. Strong growth is expected to continue from 2004 through 2006, averaging more than 10% per year to 6.8 million units, but will decline to nearly 5 million units in 2009 as stricter emission standards are put into effect in 2007.

Replacement passenger tires

The passenger replacement market will increase by 4% to over 201 million units for 2004, representing a gain of 7.8 million units from 2003 shipments. This market will continue to increase at a 2.4% annualized rate through 2009, at which point the total units shipped will be close to 227 million. This is mainly attributed to a rebound in the economy and the continued growth in the number of vehicles on the road.

Replacement light truck tires

This market segment is projected to increase by 3.4 million units to 37.9 million units in 2004, with continued growth through 2009 at an average annualized growth rate of approximately 2.3%, or more than 42 million units shipped.

Replacement med./wide-base truck tires

This market is forecasted to grow to approximately 16 million units in 2004, mainly as a result of the expected strong rebound in industrial production. Further growth exceeding 2% per year will continue through 2006, at which time shipments are estimated to be 16.7 million units, but will remain at this level through 2009.

RMA's Tire Market Analysis Committee is comprised of tire market analyst professionals representing the major U.S. tire manufacturers, which account for over 90% of all U.S. tire shipments. Their analyses and forecasts of current and future industry activity include a review of RMA tire industry and economic data, government trade figures, and vehicle sales and production. TMAC develops its consensus view for tire demand from this process. The views expressed in this release are not the sole opinion of any one committee member, member company or RMA representative.