RMA not so bullish on '95 tire shipments.

Four months after predicting increased tire shipments, the Rubber Manufacturers Association is now saying the domestic tire market is expected to register mixed results in 1995.

The RMA anticipates passenger shipments to be down and light truck shipments to be up from the record shipment figures posted for both markets in 1994. The committee predicted that a "soft landing" would result in increased shipments of tires to all light vehicle markets in 1996 compared to the original equipment market will decrease to 57.8 million units, compared to the 58.5 million shipped in 1994, while replacement shipments of passenger tires will be 167 million units, down from the 170 million shipped in 1994. In April, the RMA projected OE passenger tire shipments to reach 58.9 million units and that replacement tires would reach 173 million.

"After a brief economic slowdown during the first half of 1994, signs point to modest growth through the end of 1995 and into 1996. This trend will bring a slight dip in passenger tire demand in 1995, but will foster annual growth again in 1996," said Thomas E. Cole, president of RMA. The group expects original equipment shipments of passenger tires to reach 58.2 million in 1994, while replacement shipments rise to 171 million units.

Imports of passenger tires are predicted to rise to 46 million units in 1995, compared to the 45.6 million shipped into the U.S. in 1994. Exports will increase by approximately 9% in 1995, rising to 23.2 million units as compared to the 21.2 million shipped in 1994.

The RMA forecasted uninterrupted growth in light truck tire shipments in both 1995 and 1996. Original equipment shipments of light truck tires are expected to rise to 6.2 million units as compared to the level of 5.9 achieved in 1994. Replacement shipments were predicted to increase to 27.5 million units, 4% more than the level of 26.4 million units reached in 1994. Again in 1996, OE and replacement shipments are expected to grow to 6.22 and 28.5 million units, respectively.

The RMA predicted light truck tire imports of 7.7 million units in both 1995 and 1996, up from the level of 6.6 million in 1994. They predicted that exports would also show annual increases in both 1995 and 1996.

Mixed results in the medium and heavy truck tire sectors are also expected. OE shipments of medium truck tires are expected to reach 5.2 million units in 1995 as compared to the 4.8 million shipped in 1994, but decrease to 4.5 million in 1996. The replacement market for medium truck tires is expected to decrease in both 1995 and 1996, down to 12 and 11.8 million units, respectively, from the level of 12.2 million achieved in 1994. Contrary to what is expected for medium truck tires, OE shipment. of heavy truck tires will decrease in 1995 to 86,000 units, down from the 94,900 units of 1994, but will then increase slightly in 1996. Replacement shipments of heavy truck tires will be down in both 1995 and 1996 from the level of 258,700 units shipped in 1994.