RIVAL STUDIOS EXPECT DIFFICULT `EPISODE' NEXT SUMMER.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

This time, it looks like the 800-pound gorilla is real.

``Star Wars: Episode I'' has already been established as next year's safest bet for a hit, much like ``Godzilla'' was at this point last year, before the giant lizard turned into a box office cream puff.

So marketing chiefs at rival studios are faced with the gut-wrenching task of scheduling their films around the May 21 opening of ``Episode I.'' That means getting noticed amid what surely will be seemingly endless hype over the relaunch of the most popular movie property of all time.

``We have not set next summer, but I would not want to go on the same date as `Episode I,' '' said James Tharp, distribution chief at DreamWorks SKG.

The most significant non-``Star Wars'' summer entry so far is Warner Bros.' ``Wild Wild West,'' starring Will Smith in a remake of the late '60s television show. It's set for release during the Fourth of July weekend, a holiday that Smith owned in 1996 (``Independence Day'') and 1997 (``Men In Black''). This project reunited him with ``MIB'' director Barry Sonnenfeld.

In other words, the summer's other big weekend is also staked out almost a year ahead of time, a common scenario in this era of blockbuster movies.

But the summer of 1999 likely will be much different from the current one, which saw its three biggest-budget films - ``Godzilla,'' ``Armageddon'' and ``Lethal Weapon 4'' - barely meet or fall short of expectations after massive marketing efforts.

``Godzilla,'' in particular, was a major disappointment after Sony unleashed one of the most expensive and longest-lasting promotional campaigns, which featured teaser ads a year before the movie opened. Don't expect more of the same this winter and spring, predicts industry tracker Robert Bucksbaum of Reel Source.

``I think studios learned their lesson this summer with the campaigns for `Godzilla' and `Armageddon,' which is that you don't need to spend $70 million to market a movie,'' said Bucksbaum. ``With those films, the public got oversaturated with hearing the same kind of message over and over.''

Bucksbaum endorses 20th Century Fox's go-slow strategy, which consists of not doing much except confirming May 21 as the official release date for ``Episode I.''

``People like a mystery,'' he said. ``If they put out a trailer now, people are going to say, I don't need to see it and I'll just wait for the video.''

The presence of ``Episode I'' doesn't necessarily mean studios have abandoned the summer. After all, 35 percent of revenues are traditionally collected in the summer thanks to free-spending teen-agers and young adults who can go to the multiplex over and over once school is out.

A pair of traditional summer-type movies are daring to occupy territory close to ``Episode I.'' Universal has staked out May 7 for a glossy remake of ``The Mummy'' and Disney probably will open its animated ``Tarzan'' in the usual mid-June slot.

Warner also recently announced that Stanley Kubrick's long-awaited ``Eyes Wide Shut,'' with Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman, had been shifted from March to summer. It's the second time the secrecy-shrouded project has been delayed.

But in a sign that could show a substantial change in Hollywood's thinking, a trio of what would have been big-budget projects aimed at the '99 summer were dropped earlier this year: Warner's ``Superman Lives'' with Nicolas Cage; Warner's ``I Am Legend'' with Arnold Schwarzenegger; and Universal's ``The Hulk.''

Some still fret that studios are cranking out more films than the marketplace can absorb, even with the boom in new theater construction. But others believe Hollywood is easing up on habitual overspending.

Much of next summer's slate appears to be tilting toward this summer's successful niche entries like ``The Truman Show,'' ``Dr. Dolittle,'' ``There's Something About Mary'' and ``Saving Private Ryan.'' ``Audiences wanted to see things that were new and different,'' Bucksbaum said.

And ``Episode I'' won't necessarily hurt other films. ``It's worth remembering the business can expand so lots of films do lots of business at once,'' said Tom Borys, president of ACNielsen EDI. ``If people see a good film, they'll move on to another. So a strong film heats up the marketplace.''

SUPPORTING CAST

``Star Wars: Episode 1'' is the summer of '99 movie everyone is looking forward to and ``Wild Wild West'' and ``Tarzan'' have strong prospects. Here are some other summer movies that seem bright:

MOVIE STUDIO BUZZ

``Austin Powers'' sequel New Line Hottest non-Force property

``The Green Mile'' Sony Tom Hanks prison drama

``Summer of Sam'' Disney Spike Lee drama starring John

Leguizamo

``Fool on the Hill'' MGM  Jim Carrey radio station comedy

``For Love of the Game''Sony Baseball drama with Kevin Costner

``Inspector Gadget'' Disney Starring Matthew Broderick

``Deep Blue Sea'' Warner Bros. Starring genetically engineered 

sharks

``Beavis & Butthead II'' Paramount Enough said

``Guy Gets Kid'' Sony Romantic comedy with Adam Sandler

``The General's Daughter'' Paramount Thriller with John Travolta

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BOX: SUPPORTING CAST (see text)