RETAILERS SING 'DECK THE MALLS'.

Byline: Joe Mosley The Register-Guard

As you flip the calendar page over to the jack-o'-lantern month today, here's a thought to send a seasonal chill down your spine: Plans already are well under way to deck the halls of your favorite shop with holiday boughs.

Or to be blunt, here comes Santa Claus - right down Santa Claus Lane.

Retailers in Eugene-Springfield and around the country have been mapping strategies for their most important shopping period of 2006 since ... well, just after the 2005 Christmas season.

By late summer, shopping centers had begun dusting off holiday decorations and lining up seasonal tenants, while stores have started setting up Christmas displays.

Buying trends have been studied for months to help retailers prepare for this year's hottest gift crazes.

"We've never had our Christmas shop merchandise out as early," says Jim Trench, manager of the J.C. Penney store at Valley River Center.

The store set up its initial display of holiday decorations and accessories a week ago.

"It's probably just the competition," Trench says. "I thought we were early, then I looked at Costco and they have everything out. It's never too early for Christmas, I guess."

At Gateway Mall in Springfield, General Manager Ron Glover says monthly holiday planning meetings began in January, then increased to every other week during the summer.

There's much to be decided: which businesses to recruit for kiosks in the mall's common spaces, what decorations and themes to illustrate the holiday season, and when to phase in each element of the mall's overall holiday plan.

"It is a critical time for our business, and not something you should put off," Glover says. "We take ... everyone's ideas, then we try to enhance the season each year. We're always wondering what we can do better and make it more of a spirit-filled time."

There's plenty of motivation to catch the spirit sooner rather than later.

One recent nationwide survey indicated that 45 percent of consumers this year will begin their Christmas shopping before Thanksgiving, and 41 percent will wrap things up by early December.

In another study, the National Retail Federation has predicted that this year's holiday shopping gantlet will account for 19.9 percent - nearly one-fifth - of all 2006 retail sales in the United States, and as much as half of some retailers' annual profits.

The trade group has estimated that holiday shopping will ring up $457.4 billion in sales this year, a healthy 5 percent gain over 2005.

"Consumers have faced a number of economic challenges this year and have taken them in stride," NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells said in a statement accompanying the organization's holiday forecast.

"Although sales gains will not be as robust as last year, retailers can still expect above-average holiday sales growth."

Sales during the Christmas season rose by 6.1 percent in 2005 and 6.7 percent in 2004, compared with the previous years.

At J.C. Penney, Trench says the Christmas season plays into the thought process throughout the year in planning for everything from merchandise to store improvements to staffing levels.

"Holiday is by far the most important part of the year for us," he says. "We really expand our work crew - by roughly 25 percent.

`We'll actually start (hiring) in October because training has to be done. We have to get these people ready, so they know they can handle it."

Valley River Center General Manager Don Foster says Christmas typically comes first to stores that sell "hard goods" - from decor to toys to electronics - rather than those that feature apparel.

But the entire mall has been in a gradual holiday ramp-up since early in the year.

"After we complete a holiday season, there's at least 30 days or so we don't want to think (about) it," Foster says. "Shortly thereafter, there's a debriefing.

"It really was in August that we sat down and blocked out roughly, week by week ... what remained to be done. By the time the calendar flips to November, we will consider the holidays to be in full swing."

Kimberly Reason, spokeswoman in Seattle for Macy's Northwest, says holiday setup is well under way at all of the stores in the upscale department store chain.

Marketing plans are kicked off as early as a year and a half before the targeted Christmas season, operational meetings start by mid-spring and rough lists for in-store merchandise start coming together by May or June, she says.

"The biggest thing we work on this time of year is our 'Holiday Lane' and 'Trim a Home' stores," Reason says, describing the promotions of holiday ornaments, cards and decor.

"We plan in advance for the holidays," she says. "Several months in advance."

This year's uncertain economy - triggered by rising interest rates and high gas prices - is not expected to have much of an effect on high-end retailers for the holiday shopping season, but others may feel a pinch as their customers become more budget-conscious.

Wal-Mart Stores CEO Eduardo Castro-Wright told industry peers at a recent meeting that his company is preparing to deepen its discounts for the holiday season in a bid to loosen shoppers' purse strings.

Wal-Mart and other steep-discount chains such as rival Target - both of which have traditionally relied upon low- to moderate-income customer bases - are considered especially vulnerable to sudden price increases for essential products such as gasoline.

But elsewhere, retailers are pointing to glimmers of good news as they remain optimistic that the Christmas season will be kind to them.

Glover, the mall manager at Gateway, says his retail tenants are universally upbeat in the wake of what many consider a turning point at the shopping center: the recent additions of both Kohl's Department Store and Ashley Furniture Homestore.

"We're anticipating a very positive holiday season," Glover says. "This is really big for us, as a little center, to have two anchor (tenants) open for us in five months."

So while it remains to be seen whether this year's gotta-have-it gifts will be holdovers such as iPods and XBoxes, or this year's skinny-legged pants and "Talking Emma" dolls, the emphasis among retailers is to present an inviting venue to holiday shoppers.

At Eugene's J.C. Penney, for example, even newly updated restrooms are considered a customer service improvement and a means of enhancing the Christmas shopping season.

"Right now, everything we're doing, we're thinking, 'How can we make the shopping process better for our customers during the holiday?' ' Trench says.

"This week, we'll go into meetings and (corporate managers) will put out a timetable of when to put Christmas decorations up," he says. "Usually, that's at the start of November, and that's when you'll see the noticeable (holiday) business."

Joe Mosley can be reached at jmosley@guard net.com.