RETAILERS' LUMP OF COAL HOLIDAY SHOPPING MISSES THE MARK.

Byline: Candice Choi Staff Writer

Blair Barton arrived at The Oaks mall ready to battle the holiday crowds this weekend, but she was surprised to find a relatively calm and civil state of affairs.

``Considering it's Christmas (season), it wasn't bad at all,'' said Barton, a Thousand Oaks resident. ``There was still some cutting in line, but there weren't as many people as I expected.''

What was supposed to be the year's blockbuster shopping day turned out to be a big flop this Saturday, indicating retailers may not meet optimistic growth projections this holiday season. Preliminary estimates show sales were down 7 percent to $6.7 billion Saturday compared to the same Saturday a year ago, according to ShopperTrak, which monitors consumer traffic.

``We just finished the big weekend, and it was a bust,'' said Howard Davidowitz, chair of Davidowitz & Associates, a New York marketing firm that covers the retail industry.

The National Retail Federation continues to forecast holiday sales will grow 4.5 percent from last year to reach $220 billion, but others say the likelihood of that materializing is becoming less and less likely.

Adding further gloom to the already grim outlook is that the majority of consumers say they've completed most of their holiday shopping; the average consumer has completed 82 percent of their holiday shopping, according to an NRF study released Monday.

``The season is over. It's done - there's nothing left to talk about. It's going to be a sad Christmas,'' Davidowitz said.

The last Saturday before Christmas is traditionally the busiest shopping day of the year. Last year, that title was usurped by Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when shoppers storm malls for doorbusters and discounts and retailers' profits start going from red to black.

Citing the rise of Black Friday and the two extra shopping days in the holiday season this year, analysts have de-emphasized the importance of this Saturday.

``People are procrastinating; they're waiting till the last minute,'' said Aaron Martin, spokesman for ShopperTrak. ``There should be a good spike at the end of the season.''

Still, Davidowitz doubts retailers are going to see any big surges over the next several days. ``It had to be this weekend,'' he said. ``The hand- wringing is over. It's desperation time.''

Jack Kyser, chief economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., agreed that retailers may not be getting what they wished for after all.

``I think retailers probably had higher hopes than expected,'' Kyser said. While visiting malls like the Glendale Galleria and Stonewood Plaza this weekend, Kyser said he noticed shoppers weren't arriving until late in the day. Department stores were faring moderately while specialty stores were ``hit or miss,'' he said.

Though sales are picking up steam as the holiday season progresses, sales for the week ending Dec. 18 were down 5.9 percent from last year, according to ShopperTrak.

The problem was that retailers failed to dangle the doorbusters and big sales that attract droves of shoppers, Davidowitz said. Wal-Mart was just one of many that scaled back the number of discounts this year, Kyser said; the result was disastrous sales figures in November.

``You've got to drive footsteps. Today with the consumer pressed and in debt, you better have doorbusters,'' Davidowitz said.

J.C. Penney's and Sears have the right idea - both offered steep discounts this Saturday, Davidowitz said. Sears gave free gift cards to early arrivals, and J.C. Penney was slashing up to 50 percent on coats.

``That's the magic number is 50 percent off. We're done with 40 percent off - people are waiting to hear that they'll get at least 50 percent off now,'' Davidowitz said.

Gift cards and online sales are not counted in the figures released by ICSC, but even that won't help the final holiday sales figures, Davidowitz said.

Both those were left out of last year's figures as well, he said. Even though both gift cards and online sales are more popular this year, Davidowitz said it's not enough of a difference to account for the steep decline in sales.

``The shopping's over. People are getting ready for parties now,'' he said.

Candice Choi, [phone]

candice.choi(at)dailynews.com

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(1 -- 2 -- color) Westfield Shoppingtown Topanga in Woodland Hills isn't packed with shoppers just five days before Christmas. Estimates show sales were down 7 percent to $6.7 billion nationwide Saturday compared to the same Saturday a year ago.

Gus Ruelas Staff Photographer