RETAIL SALES SEEPING; SHOPPERS GO ELSEWHERE WITHOUT KEY CITY MALL.

Byline: Douglas Clark Daily News Staff Writer

A financial consultant has determined that $400 million in retail sales is leaking from Simi Valley to neighboring communities because this city doesn't have a central shopping mall.

The Natelson Company Inc. report claims Simi could raise its annual retail sales from $700 million to $1.1 billion if it had more stores typically found in shopping malls like the one Forest City Development has tried for two years to create.

``We're leaking like a sieve. Hopefully the study ends this question of are we just stirring around the money in town by encouraging more development,'' said Mayor Greg Stratton. ``If we can keep these people from leaving town and spending elsewhere, we can all do better. That's the message.''

Simi Valley is similar to other cities that suffer from retail leakage, said Roger Dale, of Encino-based Natelson.

``Typically cities with a lot of leakage have developed as bedroom communities,'' he said. ``And they're close to other cities that have taken up a regional retail demand, like Thousand Oaks.''

Stratton said that because of its location on the 101 Freeway, Thousand Oaks has the advantage of attracting shoppers from Camarillo to Agoura Hills. Simi Valley will attract more shoppers only if city officials are successful in luring new high-profile businesses. The study, he said, would help officials create a ``fine-tuned'' economic development strategy.

``We need to look at what this means in terms of our incentive programs,'' he said. ``The report buys us an ability to target our marketing.''

The Natelson report - an update of a 1986 study that focused primarily on the feasibility of developing a mall in Simi Valley - said there is a demand in the city for major apparel, furniture, appliance, electronics and sporting goods stores.

There is also a need for a home improvement store, a ``mega'' bookstore, and more food stores and restaurants.

The additional revenue these store could generate is significant: about $337,000 from a conventional department store; $56,000 for a home improvement store; to $28,000 in sporting goods, according to the report.

Dale said those numbers were arrived at by analyzing per capita income of potential consumers, then determining how much of those incomes would be spent on retail goods.

The Natelson firm then determined how much retail sales were being lost by shoppers going to other communities by comparing the potential demand in 47 retail categories to actual sales. Retail sales in 1996 totaled about $700 million from stores in Simi Valley that serve a market area of about 165,000 shoppers. The city's actual population is about 105,000.

Don Penman, assistant city manager for economic development, said some shopping needs may be fulfilled by the ``big box'' retail center that includes a Home Depot and Wal-Mart that will break ground next month.

And developer Robert Selleck is now trying to lure Barnes & Noble to a parcel on Tapo Canyon Road and Alamo Street, where a civic center is taking shape, he said.

But the regional mall the city craves remains elusive.

Penman said the 750,000-square-foot shopping mall Forest City would like to build is still in the works, although the firm's option on acreage north of the 118 Freeway between First Street and Erringer Road expired in August.

``It's not as formal a relationship as in the past, but there's still strong interest,'' Penman said of the city's dealings with Forest City.

According to Penman, Forest City is negotiating with large department store chains that he declined to name. But as large companies merge, there are fewer tenants to choose from. And corporations might fear that by opening a new store in Simi Valley, they would only steal business from stores already located in the San Fernando Valley.

``The numbers look good for a mall, but it's only one part of the equation,'' he said. ``They (department store chains) are well-aware of the site and are looking at it. We could get a call tomorrow, or nothing will happen.''