REPUBLICANS RALLY TO GINGRICH'S SIDE.

Byline: Katharine Q. Seelye The New York Times

The chairman of the Republican Party said Friday that ``virtually every'' House Republican would vote to keep Newt Gingrich as speaker Tuesday, while House Democrats conceded privately that they probably could not prevent Gingrich's re-election and would prepare, instead, for the next battle - over how severe his punishment will be.

Haley Barbour, the Republican chairman, said at a news conference that while he did not have a precise count of all House members, ``I expect the speaker to get virtually every House Republican's vote.''

In other positive signs for Gingrich, conservative groups are rallying around him. These include The Weekly Standard, which is endorsing him, and The American Conservative Union, a lobbying group that plans to announce its support Monday.

Grover Norquist, a longtime Gingrich ally, said the Georgia Republican was increasingly optimistic that he would prevail.

``He's in fine fettle,'' Norquist said of Gingrich, who is preparing to meet with his colleagues Monday night in the Capitol before the vote Tuesday. ``I'm confident Gingrich will be re-elected, every member I've talked to and the speaker and the people he works with are confident.''

The Republican leadership has been working around the clock to address members' questions, offer assistance on local concerns and put them directly in touch with Gingrich as the Georgia Republican seeks to save his political career.

In the strongest sign yet that such appeals by the leadership were working, several members who had not been willing to declare their support for the speaker earlier said Friday that they would vote for him.

An informal survey of House members by The New York Times on Thursday found 27 Republicans uncommitted. But that number fell to 18 late Friday as 11 members whose spokesmen had declared them uncommitted signed a statement saying they planned to support Gingrich. Two others who had not been reached before said they had previously been ``undeclared.''

The new House will have 227 Republicans, 207 Democrats and one independent. Thus, if 20 Republicans were to abstain Tuesday, they could throw the election to the Democratic leader, Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri.

But Democrats conceded privately Friday that unless Republicans had a viable third option, they would almost certainly do nothing that would swing the election to Gephardt.

``There's no place for Republicans to go but with Newt,'' a top Democratic aide said Friday night.

Democrats instead are hoping that once James Cole, the special counsel investigating Gingrich, can publicly make his case during the next two weeks, public opinion will so turn against the speaker that even Republicans will be forced to vote for a stiff punishment - one more severe than the relatively mild reprimand the committee is now believed to be contemplating.

The Democrats are hoping that the penalty might be so severe that Gingrich would be forced to give up the speakership.

``This vote isn't the big deal,'' the Democratic aide said of Tuesday's vote for speaker. ``Newt can wiggle his way to becoming speaker. The question is, how long can he keep it?''

This is the same question being asked by some conservatives, who are not especially pleased with Gingrich and think he may eventually be forced out of the speaker's job in three to six months because he will have been so weakened by this experience.

William Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard, said: ``The importance of defending Gingrich right now doesn't deny the appropriateness of a real debate a few months from now about his merits and demerits as the leader of the party, its spokesman and its chief strategist.''

Despite that sentiment, Kristol's magazine, in its Jan. 13 edition, strongly endorses retaining Gingrich as speaker. In an editorial titled ``Stand by Your Man,'' The Standard says: ``If Republicans in the House dump Gingrich, they will have accepted and enshrined the principle that conservative Republicans with hostile media relations get judged by one standard, while Democrats are judged by a far looser one.''

What seems to be rallying Republicans the most at this point is that they cannot be seen as letting Democrats control the agenda. After all, they point out, the Democrats remain in the minority despite massive infusions of money in the 1996 election and the airing of an estimated 75,000 commercials against Gingrich alone.

Norquist said press accounts had exaggerated the number of people who were not committed to voting for Gingrich, interpreting ``anyone who says anything less than `I will fall on my sword for Newt' as a defector.''

``I've talked to half of the supposed `problem' people, and they're not `problem' people,'' he said.

Predicting no more than five defectors, he said of the others returning to the fold: ``Some people like the attention, some people want a bridge, some want a chance to talk to Newt, just talk to him about the way the House works.''

Those who had been uncommitted but now say they are supporting Gingrich are: Mac Collins of Georgia, Doug Bereuter and Bill Barrett of Nebraska, Paul Gillmor of Ohio, Robert Ehrlich of Maryland, Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey, John Shimkus and Ray LaHood of Illinois, John Thune of South Dakota, Steve Horn of California and Sue Kelly of New York.

The two members whose aides said Friday that their bosses were ``undeclared'' were Reps. Jim Nussle of Iowa and Jerry Weller of Illinois.