RECORD-BREAKER SUMMER BLOCKBUSTER MOVIE LINEUP PROMISES HOT BOX OFFICE.

Byline: GREG HERNANDEZ

Staff Writer

Even the summer returns of the "Shrek," "Spider-Man," "Pirates of the Caribbean" and "Harry Potter" franchises won't be enough to attract the 80 million moviegoers per week that was common in the 1940s and '50s.

But this powerful quartet, along with at least eight other releases from proven franchises coming out over the next four months, give the film industry a realistic chance of recording its highest-grossing summer in history.

The summer record of $3.95 billion was set three years ago with a movie slate led by "Shrek 2," the biggest summer hit ever.

"The summer season is critical because 40 percent of the year's total box office comes from the 18 weeks running from May through Labor Day," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Media By Numbers LLC. "There is the potential for a lot of records to be broken this summer and a lot of appealing product."

The records should begin to fall right away with the one-two-three punch of summer kickoff film "Spider-Man 3," followed two weeks later by "Shrek the Third," then the next weekend by "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End."

The domestic grosses for the most recent installments for those three powerhouse franchises are stupendous: "Shrek 2" ($441.2 million), "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" ($423.5 million) and "Spider-Man 2" ($373.6 million).

"I think May is going to be a record month, and if the momentum can continue for the three months that follow, then we have a very good chance for a record summer," said Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com. "The only thing to watch out for is if sequel-itis kicks in halfway through the summer and people start getting sick of sequels. It might hurt the second half. But the first half of the summer is very front-loaded."

The June releases "Ocean's Thirteen," "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" and "Evan Almighty," seem to be sure things as is the August release "The Bourne Ultimatum."

But "Live Free or Die Hard" could suffer from the more than a decade between "Die Hard" films and star Bruce Willis' lack of hits in recent years. There has been less time between "Rush Hour" films and the third installment of that franchise is expected to do strong business.

Although it's not a sequel, "Ratatouille," comes from Disney-owned Pixar Animation Studios, which has a perfect record of blockbuster hits including "Cars," "The Incredibles" and "Monsters Inc."

There are also high commercial hopes for "The Simpsons Movie" which marks the feature film debut of Homer, Marge, Bart and the rest of the characters from the long-running animated television hit.

Adam Sandler is a reliable summer performer with a string of hits that include last year's "Click" as well as "The Longest Yard," "Mr. Deeds" and "Big Daddy." This year, he teams with Kevin James for the comedy "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry."

Pandya notes that July 20 release of the musical "Hairspray," starring John Travolta and Michelle Pfeifer, could go the way of such recent hits as "Dreamgirls" and "Chicago." But many other big-screen musicals have been ignored by audiences including "Rent," "The Producers," and "Beyond the Sea."

"It will probably skew a little more female so it could become strong counter-programming to all the testosterone flicks," he said. "If they can tap into 'The Devil Wears Prada' audience from last summer, then they could have a winner on their hands."

But Pandya is far more bullish on Michael Bay-directed "Transformers" which is positioned as the big Fourth of July weekend hit. It is a live-action and CG-animated adaptation of the popular comic and toy franchise.

"'Transformers,' I think, will be a pretty big hit," he said. "There's been a lot of Internet buzz all year, and Michael Bay has made a career out of making over-the-top summer action films."

But Pandya and other pundits don't believe that any film will be able to get close to all-time domestic leader "Titanic" with $600 million-plus. And if the grosses for "Gone With the Wind" were adjusted to today's ticket prices, it would have revenue of $1.2 billion.

According to Media By Numbers, movie grosses in the U.S. and Canada were at $2.597 billion as of Sunday -- 4.82 percent ahead of 2006 in terms of revenue and 2.5 percent ahead in attendance.

greg.hernandez(at)dailynews.com

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CAPTION(S):

3 photos, 2 boxes

Photo:

(1 -- color) no caption ("The Simpsons Movie")

(2 -- color) no caption ("Spider-Man 3")

(3 -- color) no caption ("Hairspray")

Box:

(1) Summer at the multiplex

(2) TOTAL LIST