RECESSION MAY HIT IN '06, UCLA SAYS.Byline: Gregory J. Wilcox Staff Writer The nation might fall into recession in 2006 as the housing market contracts, but Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850. County will fare better than other areas and the state will still have positive job growth, UCLA UCLA University of California at Los Angeles UCLA University Center for Learning Assistance (Illinois State University) UCLA University of Carrollton, TX and Lower Addison, TX economists predict in a report for release today. The widely watched quarterly Anderson Forecast from the University of California, Los Angeles UCLA comprises the College of Letters and Science (the primary undergraduate college), seven professional schools, and five professional Health Science schools. Since 2001, UCLA has enrolled over 33,000 total students, and that number is steadily rising. , expects job growth of 1.6 percent for the state next year and 1.7 percent in 2006. Next year's outlook is 0.4 percentage point under the September forecast, now characterized as overly optimistic op·ti·mist n. 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome. 2. A believer in philosophical optimism. op , and 0.2 percentage point under June's. And forecasters remain concerned about the housing bubble they first discussed in June, the state budget crisis and an anticipated downturn in consumer spending Consumer demand or consumption is also known as personal consumption expenditure. It is the largest part of aggregate demand or effective demand at the macroeconomic level. on houses and durable goods durable goods Goods, such as appliances and automobiles, that have a useful life over a number of periods. Firms that produce durable goods are often subject to wide fluctuations in sales and profits. Also called consumer durables. like vehicles. Senior economist Christopher Thornberg still believes California will see ``mild'' job growth of 0.8 percent this year, unchanged from the third-quarter forecast. However, that rate could be pushed up when the job market is reanalyzed after year's end. ``The forecast for California has 2005 being a solid, not spectacular year. What recovery was to take place has taken place.'' Growth will be provided by the usual suspects: services, leisure and hospitality. Employment in manufacturing and government are expected to stabilize. While the forecast extends into 2006, Thornberg cautions that any economic outlook gets fuzzy fuzz·y adj. fuzz·i·er, fuzz·i·est 1. Covered with fuzz. 2. Of or resembling fuzz. 3. Not clear; indistinct: a fuzzy recollection of past events. 4. beyond a couple of quarters. But signs of concern are already evident, such as sales and prices starting to cool in the residential real estate market. ``We haven't declared a recession yet,'' Thornberg. ``It's still beyond our site range. It's kind of like being a buffalo hunter. You feel them coming but you don't see them.'' Forecast director Edward Leamer, who prepared the national outlook, worries that the housing market sag will gain momentum in 2006 and that along with productivity softness, might trigger the next downturn. ``We are talking a recession driven by a plunge in consumer spending on homes and durables,'' Leamer said in his forecast. If one is indeed in the offing coming; arriving in the foreseeable future. visible but not nearby. See also: Offing Offing , the steepness and duration will probably be signaled by the latter half of next year. Los Angeles County will fare better this time around than when the bottom fell out of the consumer market in the early 1990s because it is not longer what's considered a ``pure bedroom kind of economy,'' Thornberg said. ``That's going to give us a little bit of a shield from a downturn,'' he said. A bigger impact is expected in Ventura County and the Inland Empire In·land Empire A region of the northwest United States between the Cascade Range and the Rocky Mountains, comprising eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana. Farming, lumbering, and mining are important to the area. , where car sales and furniture stores are big economic drivers and at risk of a shift in housing prices and sales. Jack Kyser, chief economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said the UCLA outlook is in line with his prediction. He anticipates job growth of 0.9 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2005. Supply and demand issues will still play an important role in the local housing market because Los Angeles County has a shortfall of 280,000 units. The county is also on different economic footing now than during the steep slide of the early 1990s and this will cushion a recessionary blow. ``Some stimulus is being provided by defense and aerospace, which was the (economy's) Achilles heal last time around,'' Kyser said. Gregory J. Wilcox, (818) 713-3743 greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com CAPTION(S): chart Chart: MORE JOBS SOURCE: UCLA Anderson Forecast Daily News |
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