Putin's Russia: is President Vladimir Putin's increasingly autocratic behavior a threat to Russia's fragile democracy?

BACKGROUND

Russian President Vladimir Putin's rule is becoming increasingly authoritarian. His critics have landed in jail or died under mysterious circumstances, TV stations that criticized Putin have been shut down, and he recently signed a law that equates the libel of a government official with "extremism."

CRITICAL THINKING 1

* Discuss the explanation for Russia's long history of authoritarian rule: invasions and fighting off external enemies. How might this repeated experience tend to favor rule by a powerful--even repressive--government?

* How may events in a nation's history influence contemporary events and values?

CRITICAL THINKING 2

* Remind students of President Bush's meeting with pro-democracy critics of Putin and his statement that the U.S. "cares about the form of government in Russia."

* Ask students to offer a few reasons why the U.S. might be concerned about Russia's form of government.

* One reason: Russia is a major, increasingly authoritarian power. Throughout history, such regimes have tended to expand beyond their borders, threatening peace and security.

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

* Will Russia be a democracy if Putin determines the choice of his successor? If he remains a power behind the scenes?

WRITING PROMPT

* Have students write five-paragraph essays in which they explain under what circumstances, if any, they think a government should be allowed to censor the press or punish its critics.

FAST FACT

* As a teen, Putin went to the K.G.B. office in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) and inquired about how to get a job with the notorious spy agency.

WEB WATCH

www.kremlin.ru/eng /articles/V_Putin_eng.shtmt

Russian government's brief biography of Vladimir Putin.

The story seemed to be ripped from the pages of a spy novel: A former Soviet K.G.B. agent with a lifetime of enemies is poisoned to death, setting off a round of international accusations and intrigue.

But that's exactly what happened to Alexander Litvinenko in London last year. Litvinenko was poisoned by polonium 210, a highly toxic radioactive substance. Shortly before his agonizing death in November, Litvinenko said he was sure the Russian government, and President Vladimir V. Putin, a former K.G.B. agent himself, were to blame.

Just the idea that Litvinenko would make such an accusation and that anyone would take it seriously--the British government has been investigating--speaks volumes about the extent to which democracy seems to be faltering in Putin's Russia.

Over the course of his seven years in office, Putin has steadily concentrated power in his hands. With elections on the horizon--for the Duma, or parliament, in December and the presidency next March--there is increasing concern about the future of Russia's fragile democracy.

"It's a political system that has democratic trappings, but a strong authoritarian core," says Rajan Menon, a Russia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. "That said, it's not a state that's involved with repressing people on a daily basis. It's provided stability and a strong economy, which is why Putin has approval ratings above 70 percent."

OIL-FUELED GROWTH

During Putin's presidency, Russia's economy has thrived. The stock market has soared, and a wide variety of consumer goods are available--unimaginable in the former Soviet Union. What's more, many more Russians, part of a growing middle class, are able to afford them. (There are, however, still a huge number of poor people, especially outside the cities, who have not benefited from the economic boom.)

Underlying much of Russia's economic success is the high price of oil. Russia is the world's second-largest crude-oil exporter (after Saudi Arabia), and oil earnings have spurred growth across the economy and benefited many Russians.

But some experts are concerned that Russia's oil wealth may actually be weakening its democracy: Regimes strengthened by oil money (be it Russia or Saudi Arabia, Venezuela or Nigeria) often use that wealth to pacify people who might otherwise be critics, silence opposition, and put off necessary economic reforms and investment.

"When oil prices became higher, the reforms became slower," says Vladimir Ryzhkov, a liberal member of the Duma. "Last year we saw record oil prices and not one reform.... When will prices go down? It is the only hope for us Russian democrats."

Litvinenko's poisoning death is part of a pattern over the past few years of government critics being killed under mysterious circumstances, or otherwise silenced. In 2004, the American editor of the Russian edition of Forbes magazine was shot to death outside his Moscow office. In October, Anna Politkovskaya, another journalist who had been critical of Putin, was also killed.

In 2005, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the billionaire head of one of Russia's largest oil companies, was sentenced to nine years in a Siberian penal colony on charges of tax evasion and fraud. Critics say Khodorkovsky's trial and the charges against him were a sham trumped up by the government because of his political challenges to Putin. For foreigners considering investing in Russia, Khodorkovsky's imprisonment was a discouraging setback.

SILENCING THE MEDIA

Last year, Putin signed a bill into law that designates slander or libel of government officials as "extremism." Journalism and civil rights groups fear the law will further restrict people's freedoms of expression. He has shut down independent TV stations that once criticized him. Putin also approved a law that allows police to monitor nongovernmental groups and shut them down if their activities are deemed a threat.

When President Bush visited Russia last summer, he made a point of meeting with pro-democracy critics of Putin's government. After the meeting, Bush told reporters he had assured those he met with "that the United States of America cares about the form of government in Russia, that we believe in the universal values embedded in democracy."

Russia has a long history of autocratic rule, so Western-style democracy is not necessarily a natural fit. (See Times Past, p. 24.) For hundreds of years, Russia was ruled by powerful czars, and for most of the 20th century, the Soviet Union was a Communist dictatorship--and the primary adversary of the U.S. and it allies during the Cold War.

The years that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 were marked by general chaos and economic collapse. When Putin took over from President Boris Yeltsin in 1999, most Russians were relieved to have a strong President who took charge.

"In Russia, people are willing to forgo human rights and freedom of speech more readily in the name of national security and national stability," says James Wertsch, director of international studies at Washington University in St. Louis. "Russia's had a long history of extreme security problems--being invaded and having to fight off external enemies. Putin is appealing to a longstanding Russian worldview."

At a press conference in February, Putin vowed that he would step down next year in accordance with the Russian constitution, which permits Presidents to serve only two terms, and promised that the upcoming elections would be free and fair.

Putin's promise to step aside for the elections sets an important precedent, says Sergei Khrushchev, a professor of international studies at Brown University and the son of former Soviet President Nikita Khrushchev. "I think it will be his huge contribution to the future of Russian democracy, because it will make it difficult for his successors to violate the Constitution."

RUSSIA & THE U.S.

Still, many experts are convinced that whichever candidate Putin decides to support will win the presidential election easily. And then there's the question of whether Putin will continue to wield influence once out of office. "He'll find some behind-the-scenes way to play a role," predicts Menon of the Council on Foreign Relations. "I don't see him just fading into the sunset like Yeltsin."

In addition to clamping down on freedoms domestically, Russia has taken foreign-policy steps that irk the West. Putin has used Russia's vast energy resources as a foreign-policy tool, threatening to cut off natural-gas supplies to some of its neighbors if they follow policies he doesn't like.

In February, Putin said Russia would consider cooperating with Iran on natural-gas sales--a move that would undercut U.S. and U.N. efforts to force Iran to give up its nuclear weapons program. Later in the month, Putin complained in a speech that the U.S. was trying to dominate the world.

Russia's shift away from democracy and toward asserting itself internationally has important consequences for its relationship with the U.S. As Menon notes, "One of the key questions is, Will there be a true U.S.-Russian partnership, or will there be a latter-day version of a Cold War?"

With reporting by Sarah Lyall, Thom Shanker, Mark Landler, C.J. Chivers, Jim Rutenberg, and Thomas L. Friedman of The New York Times.

RUSSIA SINCE THE COLD WAR

1989

FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL and the collapse of Communism and Soviet control in Eastern Europe 

1990

RUSSIA'S FIRST MCDONALD'S opens in Moscow. It's now the busiest McDonald's in the world.

1991

SOVIET UNION COLLAPSES Former Soviet republics become independent; Mikhail Gorbachev (left) resigns and Boris Yeltsin becomes Russia's first elected President.

1998

AN ECONOMIC CRISIS, which forces some elderly to turn to begging (left), is considered the low point of the Yeltsin era.

1999

YELTSIN RESIGNS and names Vladimir Putin (far left) as acting President. Putin is elected in March 2000 and again in 2004.

2004

MORE THAN 330 PEOPLE, many of them children, are killed when a siege at a school in Beslan ends in a bloodbath, Putin blames international terrorists with links to Chechen separatists.

2006

FORMER K.G.B. AGENT Alexander Litvinenko is poisoned. His murder is one of several mysterious deaths of high-profile Russians who have criticized the government.

QUIZ

1. One explanation given for Russia's history of authoritarian rule is

a that it's an outgrowth of religious beliefs.

b its long history of invasions.

c the hereditary rule of Czars.

d the need to tame a hostile environment.

2. One Russia expert says that despite his authoritarian rule, Putin's approval, rating exceeds 70 percent largely due to

a Putin's control of the news media.

b Putin's suppression of home-grown terrorists.

c the fact that there is stability and a strong economy in Russia.

d the fact that he has no serious opposition.

3. One way Putin has irked the West is by

a setting Russia's oil on the world market.

b announcing a possible trade deal with Iran.

c expanding Russia's economic Links in Africa.

d stowing the payment of Russia's U.N. dues.

4. Critics say one example of Putin's authoritarian rule was the trial, and conviction of oil. billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky on charges of tax evasion and fraud. The rear reason for his jailing, they say, was his

a close association with American and European oil companies.

b control over such a large amount of Russia's natural resources.

c political challenges to Putin.

d Link to the former Communist government.

5. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the following period in Russia was marked chiefly by

a the appearance, for the first time in Russia's history, of a middle class.

b a reduction in the use of force to pursue the country's economic interests.

c an expansion of educational opportunity to more Russians.

d general chaos and economic collapse.

IN-DEPTH QUESTIONS

1. The article speaks of many Russians' willingness to forgo human rights and freedom of speech in exchange for security and stability. Under what, if any, conditions do you think Americans might adopt such a view?

2. Why do you think Putin, after expanding his powers, would agree to step aside after his two terms as President and allow elections for a new President?

ANSWER KEY

1. [b] its tong history of invasions.

2. [c] the fact that there is stability and a strong economy in Russia.

3. [b] announcing a possible trade deal with Iran.

4. [c] political challenges to Putin.

5. [d] general chaos and economic collapse.