Puerto Rico: will it be the fifty-first state?

Voters in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico have twice refused to become what many of the island's Caribbean neighbors and most of the underdeveloped world can only dream of becoming: the fifty-first state of the Union. A bill authorizing a third plebiscite is to be presented before the U.S. Congress this session and has ostensible support from both the Republican and Democratic leadership, and from the president. (Behind the scenes, some members of the Republican leadership are reported to be gagging on the idea. Statehood might mean two more Democratic senators and six additional Democrats in the House.) The bill is timed to coincide with this year's one-hundredth anniversary of the island's annexation by the United States. It would give Puerto Rico's 3.5 million residents the chance to decide whether their homeland will become a state, an independent country, or retain its current status.

Officially a commonwealth but actually a colony, Puerto Rico presently chooses its local officials and decides its own budget and taxes. Like one of the states, it has no power to legislate foreign policy, defense matters, or international trade issues. But unless residents emigrate to the mainland United States - which, as U.S. citizens, they can do without obstruction - Puerto Ricans cannot vote for president or Congress, and their only representation in Washington is a single, nonvoting but popularly elected member called a resident commissioner.

If there is a third referendum, which way is it likely to go? Not for independence. Though the independence movement gets a fair amount of press, independistas gained barely 5 percent of the vote in the last two referenda, and would fare even worse next time out. That is because, thanks to post-World War II American aid and tax incentives, Puerto Rico is now the richest land in the Caribbean and one of the most well-off in all of Latin America. Real per capita income ($6,360 in 1992) is three to four times that of Caribbean neighbors like Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, and incalculably more than that of Cuba or Haiti. Still, Puerto Rico trails all fifty states in economic development. The San Juan Star reported that the commonwealth received $10 billion from Washington in 1996, more titan sixteen states, but that, based on population, island residents were still shortchanged in comparison. Statehood advocates argue that if Puerto Rico becomes part of the Union, it will be the twenty-sixth largest state, and that an economic and political bonanza will follow.

Still, if the past holds true, should Puerto Ricans step into the voting booth, powerful and unpredictable emotions can take over. Islanders have a deep pride in their distinct heritage. Furthermore, in past referenda the island's business community has been lukewarm toward statehood, fearful of being placed under Washington's IRS regulations rather than the island's more familiar Treasury Department procedures. These business leaders have the means to wage a strong media campaign to maintain the status quo. Puerto Ricans, like many other Hispanics, are basically conservative; they tend to look with suspicion on something new like statehood. Thus, supporters of the present commonwealth status argue that the choice would mean the loss of the island's Spanish heritage. Though some islanders disparage that heritage - as nearly four hundred years of slavery, exploitation, and poverty - it nonetheless has a strong pull on educated islanders who identify with the language but not the history of imperial Spain. Still, Puerto Ricans who want to keep their language could do that, even with statehood.

Those against statehood also argue that the island is not ready for the rigors the transition would impose. They cite the following problems: Less than 3 percent of the island's students speak English fluently, and they do so only because they have lived on the mainland; the school system itself is on the brink of disaster; unemployment is at 10.5 percent (which is historically low); next to D.C. and New York City, AIDS is the highest per capita in the United States; the number of murders on the island rivals that of New York City, which has twice the population; the island's strong labor unions will deter new business ventures, and U.S. labor laws will raise the price of doing business, discouraging new investment; the thousand miles of ocean between the island and the mainland contributes to the cost of everything made and sold on the island.

Still, the arguments for statehood and its benefits seem convincing: Statehood would mean a precisely defined relationship with the United States and the rest of the world; greater access to capital (Puerto Rican companies now depend on expensive bank loans rather than on corporate bonds); a plethora of additional economic assistance from Washington; and significant political representation in Congress that would help to transform the island's colonial status to one of full citizenship.

Joseph D. Policano's most recent article for Commonweal was a report from Germany (February 13, 1998).