Publishers hunker down for war.

At the Library of Congress, in anticipation of possible terrorist attacks exacerbated by the coming of war in Iraq, employees have been issued gas masks and a five-day supply of water and freeze-dried food. Safe areas have been designated within the Washington, D.C. building and preparations even include a temporary morgue.

Even in the Washington area, newsletter publishers aren't taking such drastic steps (they aren't located immediately adjacent to the Capitol building), but they do have an unparalled opportunity to test the direct marketing folk wisdom that response goes into the tank when national attention is diverted by traumatic events.

But, unlike September 11, we can see this one coming.

On the ad-supported side, The New York Times reports that sponsors are planning to delay campaigns, pull commercials, etc. when the shooting starts; no one wants their commercials to run next to coverage of body bags.

Richard Ossoff of Strafford Publications in Atlanta, who publishes more than a dozen newsletters, chiefly aimed at accountants and lawyers, told NL/NL, "We haven't addressed the question specifically, but I anticipate when war begins while we won't cancel any cam-paigns, we will adjust timing, change intervals of mailings. I expect we'll come full stop for ten days to two weeks when the war starts.

"But that's anticipating that the war will be pretty much a cake walk as the administration appears to assume. In that case, like they often say about the effects of bad news on stock prices, I think it would be fair to say that the public already has to a considerable degree 'discounted' the effect of the war. We all know that it is coming.

"On the other hand, if there are things like gas or chemical attacks, large numbers of casualties, door-to-door fighting in Baghdad, we may further adjust our plans.

"Frankly," Ossoff concluded, "entirely apart from the fact that we are about to go to war, it's hard for me to find anything in today's terrible economic environment which will lead to an improvement in business confidence."

Strafford is a business-to-business publisher where 25,000 pieces is probably a large drop, and 40-50 orders means a satisfactory immediate profit. That translates to a day with three orders in the mail being a big one. But, more important than market size, their accountants and lawyer prospects will still be in their offices everyday, piling up those billable hours--war or no war.

Are anticipations different, we wondered among consumer newsletter marketers, who reach prosopects at home, where their offer will compete directly with Peter Jennings and the rest of the non-stop talking heads?

These are also the marketers who might drop 2.5 million pieces and expect more than 1,000 orders a day coming back.

Allie Ash of Newsletter Holdings LLC, in McLean, Virginia, publishers of Personal Finance and the Louis Rukeyser titles, agrees that "consumer newsletters are much more sensitive to 'market psychology' than business publications," but nonetheless, "we'll continue to be cautiously in the mail, perhaps with reduced quantities and to only the best lists."

The forthcoming war, Ash said, is not the first time a potential direct mail disaster has been foreseeable. "Remember Y2K? Predictions went all the way to doomsday scenarios of the 'end of the world as we know it.'

"We decided that if the worst case came true, how much worse off would we be it we had dropped some large mailings? And, if nothing happened, we might have a considerable advantage being out there while many of our competitors were staying on the sidelines and waiting.

Fairly gloomy overview

However, like Ossoff, Ash has a fairly gloomy overview of business prospects, "coming off two crummy years."

"If it were my money," said Craig Huey, Torrance, California-based marketing consultant to many consumer publishers in the health and investment fields, "no matter what product or service I was selling, I would not mail into the face of a war and that is what I'm telling all my clients.

"When the war starts, mail response will come to an absolute halt for at least three days as everyone--business and consumer prospects alike--will be fixated on the news 24 hours a day. After that, response days four and five will also be off at least 50 percent.

"Plus if, as the war goes on, Saddam Hussein suddenly does something horrible, like attack our troops with chemical weapons, the national attention will be transfixed again," Huey said.

"I don't see that it matters whether you are a consumer publisher anticipating more than 1,000 orders a day or a b-to-b publisher looking for two or three, losing about a full week of response is a risk you don't need to take."

On that note, and taking into mind Don Libey's observation in the page 3 sidebar, Huey reported that some of his clients are opting to segment their mail, dropping portions on a weekly basis. "It's a little more expensive, but it does limit their exposure while allowing them to continue to be in the mail."

Other publishers are also reportedly planning to "drip feed" their promotional mailings over weeks or even months, getting a feel for both response and-especially in international marketing--delivery problems