Preparing for the deluge: Saddam Hussein forced hundreds of thousands to give up their homes and land. Their return could bring a humanitarian crisis.

Refugee assistance organizations and the United Nations say war in Iraq could uncork a refugee crisis.

It could become one of the largest migrations of people in modern times, a human tide sweeping across the desert and out of the high northern mountains of Iraq.

Perhaps a million or more may be waiting to reclaim homes and land they, fled, by force or by fear, under the 24-year dictatorship of Saddam Hussein.

To maintain control and political domination, Saddam literally redrew the ethnic map of Iraq, driving enemies, real and imagined, from their homes and making sure that his allies lived near Iraqi oil wells and other strategic points.

The Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, estimated that northern Iraq alone held 500,000 to 800,000 displaced people (a term for refugees who remain in their home country), many of them members of the Kurdish minority. Another 300,000 displaced people, mostly of Arab background, were in central and southern Iraq.

"Iraq has been a giant social engineering project," says Peter Bouckaert, a researcher for Human Rights Watch. "People have been moved around and bused around all over the country, in a serial displacement, and when they start going home they are going to displace other people. There is going to be a domino effect."

VALUABLE PLANNING TIME LOST

The Bush administration said it hoped to minimize the human toll in a post-Saddam Iraq. The State Department has coordinated efforts with aid groups, and the Pentagon created an office to help potential refugees. "There are an awful lot people in and out of government spending an awful lot of time working on" this, says Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

But aid groups say the attention of the U.S. and the world was for too long focused on war with Iraq, not the refugee problem. They say that valuable planning time was lost during the months while world leaders debated whether to support a U.S.-led campaign against Iraq. That slowed efforts on the part of the UN High Commission on Refugees, which organizes world relief efforts, to plan and begin raising funds for an Iraq crisis.

"A lot of the aid groups were assessing what they could do, but they were also bound by not knowing what funding would be available," says Hiram Ruiz, director of communications for the U.S. Committee for Refugees, a nonprofit humanitarian organization.

The seeds of the refugee crisis were planted in 1979, when Saddam came to power. Though his government was essentially secular, Saddam depended on close allies, many from the Sunni Arab minority in his hometown of Tikrit, to maintain his Baath political parts, and his dictatorship.

Saddam saw a threat in Iraq's Kurds, the country's largest minority. The Kurds, mostly Sunni, have long sought an independent Kurdish state, to be carved partly out of Iraq.

Saddam persecuted the Kurds and drove thousands into northern Iraq. He attacked Halabja, a Kurdish village, with poison gas that killed 5,000 and maimed thousands more. After the 1991 Gulf War, many Kurds fled into northern Iraq, where they came under the protection of a "no-fly zone"--an area created after the Gulf War, patrolled by U.S. and British jets, where Iraqi aircraft were forbidden.

Saddam also forced the resettlement of thousands of Shiite Muslims--Arabs who follow a branch of Islam prevalent in neighboring Iran, a bitter enemy of Iraq. Shiites make up a majority (about 60 percent) of Iraq's population; most live in the southern part of the country.

The Iraqi dictator was especially brutal to a group known as the marsh Arabs--inhabitants of the southern delta formed by the Tigris and Euphrates rivers who can trace their roots back 6,000 years to the ancient Sumerian empire. Fearful that they were planning a rebellion, Saddam forced at least 140,000 of the 250,000 marsh Arabs to move during the 1990s, and drained thousands of acres of the marshes that they depended on for survival. The United Nations called it one of the world's great ecological disasters.

Facing a complex mosaic of ethnic and religious groups--besides the Sunni Arabs, the Shiite Arabs, and the Sunni Kurds, there are smaller groups of Sunni Muslim Turkmen, Armenians, Assyrians, Christians, and Yazidis--refugee organizations spent recent months preparing for an upheaval whose true dimensions could not be predicted.

FEARING A "MASSIVE INFLUX"

A UN report concluded that in a full-scale war, more than a million Iraqis would head to other countries as refugees, and 900,000 people would be displaced within the country. Perhaps more ominous, the report suggested that 4.9 million people would need food assistance. The report also warned it was "very likely" there would be outbreaks of cholera and dysentery--intestinal illnesses that cause diarrhea and severe dehydration. Untreated, they can bring rapid death.

The potential flood of refugees alarmed Iraq's neighbors. The UN predicted that even a short war could prompt 200,000 to 300,000 people from Baghdad, Iraq's capital, to flee east to Iran. Iran announced it was building refugee camps for 200,000, and that it did not intend to permit more than that number inside its boundaries.

Turkey, which borders Iraq to the north, feared that an influx of Kurdish refugees could boost a Kurdish rebel movement inside Turkey. Kurdish dreams of their own nation, Kurdistan, would not only involve Iraq but would appropriate part of Turkey, too. Turkey's government said the rebels were emboldened when Iraqi Kurds fled to Turkey after the 1991 Gulf War. In the event of a repeat, Turkish officials were considering plans to send Turkish troops 60 miles inside Iraq to head off the refugees.

"In case of a massive influx, it would be necessary to take measures to keep them away from our border," says Gokhan Aydiner, regional governor in southeastern Turkey. Critics said the Turkish plan would violate international law, which generally requires that refugees fleeing danger must be given admittance into a neighboring country.

UNITED IN RELIEF

It is hard to say how difficult it will be to keep the peace in a post-Saddam Iraq. Even as U.S. troops began pouring into the region, the Kurds were fighting in the no-fly zone against an Islamic militant group, Ansar Al Islam, with connections to Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network.

After the Gulf War, Shiite Muslims in Iraq's south, believing that Saddam had lost power, hanged 20 to 30 officials of Saddam's Baath Party. The depth of the Shiites' enmity was kept concealed under Saddam's repressive regime. But some familiar with the region forsee a rampage of killings and score-settling.

The U.S. military may limit the violence, but controlling the deep desire of hundreds of thousands of people to return to their homes may be more difficult. At a refugee camp in northern Iraq, Neimat Sadiq Muhammad, 46, reveals the pent-up passion for repatriation. Forced from her own region six months ago, she was counting the days for Saddam to fall. "We will walk, we will run, we will jog, all the way back to our houses," she says. "As soon as there is no danger, we will leave this place."

lesson plans

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

* Should the U.S. grant asylum to any refugees from a war with Iraq?

* If you answered yes, what, if any, conditions should be applied to those who come to live in the U.S.?

* How should U.S. officials respond if people like Neimat Sadiq Muhammad demand help in getting home?

TEACHING OBJECTIVES

To help students understand the logistical, economic, political, and humanitarian problems produced by a massive flood of refugees from and within Iraq.

CLASSROOM STRATEGIES

MAP ANALYSIS: Have students study the map, noting the regions where the major ethnic groups live. Next, refer to any map of the United States. Draw a rough box, with a line running northwest from Washington, D.C. to a point north of Detroit; then southwest to Indianapolis, Indiana; then southeast to Raleigh, North Carolina; then northeast to Washington, D.C. Explain that this is roughly the size and shape of Iraq.

Ask students to imagine what life would be like in this area if perhaps 1 million people fled this region for neighboring states, and another 900,000 moved within the region, heading for all points on the compass. How would the mass migration affect access to health care, roads, food supplies? Add to this, rivalries between groups and the fact that some of the refugees would be returning to their former homes, now occupied by strangers. How would authorities care for all these migrants?

CRITICAL THINKING/DISCUSSION: All wars produce refugees. But this article is more than a report on the potential flood of refugees in the aftermath of war. Ask students whether Iraq is really a country. Might an argument be made that it is actually three countries, divided by Sunni Kurds and Sunni Arabs in the north and middle, and Shiite Arabs, respectively, in the south. Given the "complex mosaic of ethnic groups and religious rivalries" what is the likelihood that post-Saddam Iraq will be stable?

WRITING EXERCISE: After students finish the article, have them reread the final paragraph and then study the refugee-camp photos. Could they step into the shoes of Neimat Sadiq Muhammad? What might she write in a diary about life on the road back to her home? How would she describe the living conditions in a refugee camp similar to that shown on page 16? How might she remember her forced relocation--and what might she say about Saddam Hussein?

Upfront QUIZ 2

MULTIPLE CHOICE DIRECTIONS: Circle the letter next to the best answer.

1. Which ethnic group living in northern Iraq has long sought independence from Baghdad?

a Shi'a Muslims

b Syrians

c Arabs

d Kurds

2. After the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. set up protected areas for people in northern and southern Iraq. These are called

a no-fly zones.

b off-limits areas.

c allied lands.

d Saddam-free territory.

3. Saddam Hussein has forcibly relocated thousands of people, but he has been especially brutal to the

a Arab Christians.

b immigrants from Iran.

c Marsh Arabs.

d immigrants from Kuwait.

4. Which term best describes refugee organizations' understanding of what needs to be done to cope with the expected flood of refugees?

a Organizations are thoroughly prepared for refugees.

b Organizations are unprepared for refugees.

c The dimensions of the refugee problem are unknowable.

d Organizations are prepared to cope in some areas and not in others.

5. In the event of war, nearly 5 million Iraqis would

a need food assistance.

b be killed.

c lose their homes.

d emigrate to other countries.

6. Which nation bordering Iraq plans to repel refugees?

a Syria

b Turkey

c Russia

d Iran

ANSWER KEY

1. (d)

2. (a)

3. (c)

4. (c)

5. (a)

6. (b)

HOW YOU CAN HELP

Here are some of the major refugee assistance organizations that planned to operate in Iraq or nearby countries. Donations can be made in most cases by mail or phone. Check Web sites for additional information.

* USA-UNHCR (supports the United Nations High Commission on Refugees, which will organize aid efforts): 1775 K St. NW, Suite 290, Washington, DC 20006.

* United Nations Children's Fund UNICEF, 333 East 38th St., New York, NY 10016.

* American Red Cross: Send donations to local offices, or donate online at www.redcross.org.

* Catholic Relief Services: Iraq Humanitarian Response, P.O. Box 17090, Baltimore, MD 21203-7090, or 1-800-724-2530.

* World Vision: P.O. Box 70288, Tacoma, WA 98481, 1-888-56-CHILD; online, www.worldvision.org.