Preparing for avian influenza: companies need a plan in place.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the avian influenza has infected more than 180 people and killed about half of them, according to the most recent World Health Organization estimate. It is a versatile and hardy virus--infecting more types of animal species, over a wider geographical area, and causing more deaths--than any other avian influenza in history.

Disease experts agree that H5N1 has the potential to spark the next human flu pandemic. They liken it to the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic, which sickened 30 percent of the world's population and killed at least 40 million. According to Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, H5N1 and the 1918 virus are "kissing cousins of the highest order."

Yet according his center's poll of corporate planners, only 18 percent have completed a preparedness plan. Should a pandemic emerge, the U.S. government assumes it could sweep the globe. Containment efforts will provide little more than speed bumps. U.S. Health and Human Services estimates that 30 percent of the U.S. population, or 90 million people, could become ill over at least two successive disease waves each lasting six to eight weeks in a given community. Vaccines or anti-viral medications will not make much difference because the vaccine-production process is slow and anti-virals are in short supply.

If the worst case scenario does emerge, travel will suffer an immediate blow. There will be shocks to the financial markets and a significantly diminished flow of goods and services. The overburdened medical system may cease to meet any but the most immediate needs. Even essential services such as power, water and waste disposal may experience intermittent disruptions.

One of the major differences between a pandemic and other business interruptions is the global, sustained nature of a pandemic. Planners may have to contend with a 30 percent reduction in work force that persists for weeks to months, occurs in multiple locations and repeats over a period of a year. The same logic applies to disruptions in critical inputs and fluctuations in client demand.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

A sensible planning process starts with these basics:

* One of the first steps should be to identify an individual or group to oversee the planning process and organize the company's response if an outbreak should occur.

* With a diminished work force, a key issue will be to identify critical functions and individuals, and crosstrain personnel to ensure that those functions can be fulfilled.

* Companies should develop a set of policies that encourage sick personnel to stay home, such as liberal sick leave.

* They should shore up their IT infrastructure to allow as many personnel as possible to work from home for extended periods.

* Because the delivery of goods and services is likely to become unreliable, planners must assess critical inputs and vendors, and develop redundancy in critical areas.

* Finally, to identify unanticipated gaps in the system, emergency plans should be practiced, including role playing.

Whether or not a pandemic materializes, it is a good idea to update emergency plans to account for infectious disease outbreaks. Over the past 25 years, novel pathogens appear to be emerging at an accelerated rate. The cause may lie in a more densely populated and integrated globe as well as warmer climates. One thing seems certain: Medical challenges such as HIV, mad cow disease, SARS and H5N1 don't appear to be going away anytime soon.

Jack Devine, a former CIA official, is president of The Arkin Group, a corporate intelligence and risk consulting firm, and Susan Varisco is its director of emergency preparedness.