Predictions For 2002. (Comment).

THESE are especially dangerous times to be projecting the future -- economic, political, whatever -- but what's an end-of-the-year paper without our annual list of prognostications that, with any luck, no one will remember 12 months from now. Here goes:

* The recession will break nationally in the first quarter, but it will be replaced with a so-called growth recession -- that is, expansion of less than 1 percent that no one will feel. Things will sharply improve in the last three months of the year.

* As the recession drags out longer than expected, the Democrats will retain control of the Senate in November, while the Republicans will barely maintain their hold of the House.

* Rep. Gary Condit will lose his reelection bid -- after desperate efforts by Democrats to get him out of the race. His loss will provide just enough cushion for House Republicans.

* The Clippers will make the playoffs, while the Lakers will fail in their bid to three-peat.

* "Lord of the Rings" will be awarded best picture Oscar, another nod to Hollywood's penchant for spectacles.

* L.A. unemployment will hover between 6 percent and 6.5 percent for most of 2002, leading economic optimists to proclaim that the region had skirted much of the recession. Then, late in the year, local joblessness will jump to over 7 percent.

* Gasoline prices will inch up soon after the beginning of the year, then jack up in late spring.

* Three airlines will be acquired, two as a result of bankruptcy proceedings.

* L.A. will be the recipient of an existing NFL franchise from another city, and plans will be made for a new football stadium - most likely, a rebuilt Coliseum.

* Gray Davis will win reelection as governor.

* Hollywood & Highland will quickly fade as a local shopping destination and L.A. tourism won't rebound enough to make up the difference. Meanwhile, The Grove at Farmers Market will become a popular hangout (though traffic will be a nightmare).

* After years of negative press, the first phase of Playa Vista will open to largely positive notices.

* A new outbreak of anthrax will lead to one arrest, and that person will be tied to the earlier cases. There will be no connections to the Al Qaeda terrorist network.

* A small Southern California newspaper will go out of business.

* Street traffic will get worse, leading to more frequent incidents of road rage.

* The New York Times will dutifully report the road rage phenomenon as reflective of the L.A. lifestyle.

* The Dodgers will remain a .500 club amid more rumors that Fox is interested in putting the team on the block.

* Crime will rise substantially in Los Angeles, fueled by gangs and the release from state prisons of thousands of felons who have become more violent from their time behind bars.

* A spate of war movies released early in the year will not do well at the box office, leading studios to pull back on the genre.

* Given the fight employment market, laid-off dot-corners will proclaim the coolness of being without a job -- a cultural curiosity that will make it on the covers of newsmagazines.

* Somehow we'll manage to get through 2002, and by the time you again hear Bing Crosby singing "White Christmas," some bozo will be offering crazy predictions for '03.

Mark Lacter is editor of the Business Journal.

Taking Stock for the New Year. (LABJ forum)

While the stunning events of 2001 have led to plenty of soul-searching about the important things in life, there's still opportunity to consider any and all priorities for the coming year. The Business Journal asks:

What are your resolutions for 2002?

Bob Graziano

President, Chief Operating Officer Los Angeles Dodgers 

My New Year's resolution is to run my first marathon in March that being the L.A. Marathon. It's a challenge I've never accomplished. Every year I say I'm going to do it, and this year I'm really going to do it. I've already started training for it. I'm actually running some pretty long distances. I've already run 20 miles.

Steve Soboroff

President

Playa Vista

On the business front, a year from now I'd like to have a lot of happy people who live in Playa Vista invite me over for dinner. Overall, I just want to continue thinking that things happen for the best -- that's a good one, considering I just lost an election. Hey, this is OK. Things are fine that I didn't win. I want to keep that feeling going.

Alex Padilla

President

Los Angeles City Council 

One thing I will do in the coming year is give my full support for any effort to keep the city of Los Angeles together. I will also support any efforts to improve city performance so as to remove the impetus for secession. Another goal is to attract new businesses and good-paying jobs to the northeast San Fernando Valley. I'd like to see more economic development projects like the SunQuest Office Park in Sun Valley. Personally, my goal is to finish a 10-K race in 50 minutes or less.

Ali Kasikci

General Manager

The Peninsula Beverly Hills

When you reach a certain age, you basically hope for the best. The only resolution I can make is not to repeat the last quarter of 2001. The tragedy and drama we all went through is so big that it is something I wouldn't want to repeat.

Richard Ayson

Director of Marketing

Hollywood Entertainment Museum

The museum for me is the best kept secret in L.A., so as an over rider, my resolution is to change that -- to make it known to the broadest possible audience as we can. We're putting together a formal advertising and marketing campaign. Personally, I'm new to L.A., so the key thing is to find a balance between play and work. I've just come from London, where the weather was dreadful and life always seemed about work, work, work. There's an incredible quality of life here, and I really want to get up every day and embrace that.

Grace Jamra

Partner

Phillips Lerner and Lauzon LLP 

To expand my involvement in the community and nonprofits because therein lies the true reward. It's not an issue of giving money. It's giving time. Also, probably to find a balance in my life between work and personal, taking the time for myself, as far as reading and writing, and just taking time off. I haven't had a vacation in years. I already know where I want to go -- Cabo.