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Power generation capacity now 8314 MW.

Power Generation Capacity Now 8314 MW

The challenge that faces the Government, economists, power planners and electrical engineers of this country today, is to devise a strategy which would enable the country to defeat the power shortage, the enormity of the problem and the multiplicity of the constraints notwithstanding. An increasingly larger share of the national investment outlay needs to be diverted to power generation. Despite additional fund allocations to the power sector to meet high demand growth rates, the country still has not really succeeded in expanding, the supply facilities at the required rate.

Despite massive investment in the power sector, Pakistan is faced with a highly disturbing electric power shortage. It is estimated that Pakistan is losing $ 500 annually of value added in manufacturing due to load-shedding. An annual investment to the order of Rs. 35 to 50 billion (in terms of 1990 prices) is required to go into the generation sector to meet the demand for electricity which is growing at the rate of 11 to 12 per cent a year. Normally such a phenomenal rate of growth in demand is a happy sign for a country's economy and is an indicator of industrial and economic progress. Unfortunately, in Pakistan's case, the bulk of the increase in the demand for consumption of electrical energy is due to increased demand in non-productive sectors such as domestic and air-conditioning rather than in the productive sectors like industry and agriculture. This has had ominous consequences for an already over-stressed economy. An increasingly larger share of the national investment outlay needs to be diverted to power generation. Despite additional fund allocations to the power sector to meet high demand growth rates, the country still has not really succeeded in expanding, the supply facilities at the required rate.

Despite the top priority accorded by the Government to the power sector (by far the largest single sector of investment), the present level of allocation for the sector, is about Rs. 16 billion annually. The prospects for a two or threefold increase in investment levels for this sector, at the expense of other equally important and basic sectors like health and education, are virtually non-existent. In fact, the shortfall in required investment is likely to keep increasing with time as a result of the large differential between rate of growth of GDP and the rate of growth of demand. The challenge that faces the Government, economists, power planners and electrical engineers of this country today, is to devise a strategy which would enable the country to defeat the power shortage, the enormity of the problem and the multiplicity of the constraints notwithstanding.

Pakistan, represented a multi-billion dollar market for power industry, large enough to support economically feasible manufacturing plants for equipment like HV transformers, switchgear and the like. Major financial savings estimated to be to the tune of Rs. three to four billion annually (not counting the peripheral economic benefits), could accrue if heavy power manufacturing plants adequately supported by an indigenous vendor industry, manufacturing parts of transformers, isolators, breakers etc, were to be set up in Pakistan.

There are two main power utilities in the country: Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC). While KESC is supplying electricity to Karachi areas, WAPDA is responsible for the rest of the country. WAPDA's generating system consists of a combination of hydel and thermal power stations. WAPDA's total installed capacity as on December 31, 1990 was 6859 MW, of which hydel constituted 2,897 MW. The total generating capacity of KESC as at end March 1990 was 1318 as shown in the following table.

Installed Capacity as on December 31, 1990
 (MW)
 WAPDA KESC Country
Hydel Power 2897 -- 2897
Thermal 2747 1093 3840
Gas Turbine 1215 225 1440
Nuclear -- -- 137
 TOTAL: 6859 1318 8314


Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 1989-90

Hydel power stations which contribute 34.8 per cent of the total generation are mainly installed on Tarbela, Mangla and Warsak dams, while some capacity, totalling 107 MW, is installed on canals. The total installed capacity in the country as on December 31, 1990 was 8314 MW. Power generation capacity in the last 11 years was as follows:

Installed Capacity of Electricity
 (Unit MW)
Year Hydel Thermal Nuclear Total
1980-81 1,847 2,121 137 4,105
1981-82 1,947 2,121 137 4,205
1982-83 2,547 2,114 137 4,798
1983-84 2,548 2,325 137 5,010
1984-85 2,898 2,580 137 5,615
1985-86 2,898 3,263 137 6,298
1986-87 2,901 3,615 137 6,653
1987-88 2,898 3,776 137 6,811
1988-89 2,897 4,069 137 7,103
1989-90 2,897 4,860 137 7,894
1990-91 2,897 5,280 137 8,314


Source: Economic Survey, 1989-90

Hydel capacity varies with seasons. It is reduced when less water is allowed to pass through the machines due to lower irrigation requirements during winter. It is also reduced as reservoir levels at Mangla and Tarbela go down during the months of March and May respectively. In unusually dry years, the river discharges are low because of less rains and hydel generation is further adversely affected. The shortfall in the generation capability of hydel stations during low water periods is, therefore, to be supplemented by thermal generation.

In power generation, the targets of the plan have not been met. Against the planned addition to installed capacity of 3,795 Megawatts (MW), only 2,018 MW was installed, a shortfall of 47 per cent. The installed capacity of Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) at the end of the plan period was 6,716 MW (after retiring 96 MW) against a target of 8,604 MW, a shortfall of 22 per cent. The main reasons for the shortfall were that the execution of a number of generation projects was delayed.

Power Generation Policy

The rationale for the Seventh Plan power sector generation programme includes the following: - completion of schemes started in

earlier plans; - continuation of programme to use

indigenous sources of energy such as

Lakhra coal and hydel; - bringing oil and gas plants on line to

meet the short-term need of

eliminating load-shedding and to balance the

country's generation capacity by

providing greater thermal generation

which is unaffected by seasonal water

fluctuation; - laying the groundwork for projects to

cater to the needs of the Eighth Plan; - initiating work on large and medium

hydels, including detailed engineering

of Bhasha dam and a run-of-river

project at Ghazi Ghariala to assure significant contribution from low cost, indigenous resource-based generation; and - maximum reliance on the private sector to help relieve the financial burden on the public sector in the Seventh, Eighth and subsequent plans. The mix envisaged for the additional capacity is shown in the Table.

Additional Seventh Plan Generation Capacit
 (MW)
 Additional Public Private
 Capacity Sector Sector
Hydel 2168 2168 --
Steam 3790 2460 1330
Gas Turbine 600 600 --
 TOTAL: 6558 5228 1330


Source: Seventh Five Year Plan 1988-93 Perspective Plan 1988-2003.

PHOTO : Tarbela Dam - Country's Biggest Hydel POwer Station

PHOTO : Guddu Thermal Power Station
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Title Annotation:power shortage in Pakistan
Publication:Economic Review
Date:Mar 1, 1991
Words:1184
Previous Article:Power generation - private sector welcome.
Next Article:Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA).
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