Poll: Crowded governor's race rouses little zeal.

Byline: David Steves The Register-Guard

SALEM - In less than two weeks, Oregon Republicans will decide a three-way race among candidates seeking the right to challenge an incumbent and take back the governorship for the first time in 24 years.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Gov. Ted Kulongoski, saddled with some of the worst voter approval ratings among the nation's governors, faces a rare challenge from not one but two fellow Democrats.

Democratic and Republican voters will settle both nomination contests when voting concludes May 16. But first, they'll have to wake up.

"It's not like you can hear the drone of snores, but we have not gotten to a level of noticeable intensity. It's pretty quiet," said political scientist and commentator Robert Eisinger of Lewis & Clark College in Portland.

The lack of voter engagement so far was underscored by a new poll released Thursday by KATU-TV in Portland and The Oregonian newspaper. It found 35 percent of Republican voters and 25 percent of Democrats still undecided when including those leaning toward a candidate but not committed to supporting him.

The survey, done for the two media outlets by independent pollster Tim Hibbitts, found Kulongoski with a plurality lead of 43 percent in favor or leaning toward him vs. challenger Jim Hill's 30 percent and Peter Sorenson's 8 percent.

On the Republican side, Ron Saxton and Kevin Mannix were in a virtual dead heat. Saxton had 31 percent in favor or leaning toward him, while Mannix had 24 percent. Trailing, but not by much, was Jason Atkinson with 18 percent in favor or leaning toward him. That left Hibbitts to tell KATU that "in this primary, any of these three gentlemen could still win."

The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 5.6 percent.

Candidates are starting to nudge voters with negative ads, something that could become more prevalent on TV and radio in the final days before the primaries' conclusion. Mannix this week started airing a pair of ads that, for the first time, explicitly criticize Saxton for his role on the Portland school board and his law firm's contributions to the Clinton-Gore presidential ticket.

On the Democratic side, challengers Hill and Sorenson are mustering enough of their limited campaign dollars to go on the air for the first time.

Hill, a former state treasurer and 2002 gubernatorial candidate, was to run his first TV ad in Portland today and in Eugene on Monday, campaign manager Jef Green said. The ad, which can be viewed on Hill's Web site, features Hill in a coffeehouse, vowing to "change the current do-nothing tune" and improve schools. "Unlike my opponent, we'll do it with a rainy-day fund, not a sales tax," Hill says, referring to Kulongoski's stated interest in a consumption tax as part of a reform of the state's tax system.

Sorenson's campaign coordinator, Shane Kavanaugh, said the candidate was planning to make a modest media buy to put ads on a few Portland and Eugene radio stations, such as those that carry the politically progressive "Air America" national programming.

Up until now, the only ad-war fireworks have been generated by outside groups that by law must operate independently of the candidates they are seeking to help.

Mannix's ads criticizing Saxton directly turn up the heat. They're the first in which one candidate takes to the airwaves to lash at another.

In one, a middle-aged woman sits at a kitchen table and warns that "we Republicans just can't trust Saxton ... Let's stop this Portland liberal."

The actor claims that Saxton authorized his law firm's contribution to the Clinton-Gore ticket in 1996 and that he contributed to Kulongoski.

The second ad, featuring animated cutouts of Saxton and others, parodies Saxton's own ad in which he brags about his leadership of the Portland school board and vows, "I did it in Portland and I'll do it for the state."

The ad goes on to blame Saxton for the costly hiring and eventual firing of Portland Public Schools consultant Steve Goldschmidt, the brother of ex-governor Neil Goldschmidt. The ad does not mention that as school board chairman, Saxton was not directly involved with hiring decisions nor that he had already exited his post when Goldschmidt's departure triggered his $620,000 severance package.

Saxton campaign manager Felix Schein said he "couldn't take issue with any one particular aspect" of the ads. But he accused Mannix of "resorting to these personal attacks" and abandoning an issue-oriented campaign. Schein said Saxton has no plans to go negative.

"We are committed to a positive, issue-oriented campaign," he said.

Mannix campaign consultant Jack Kane said the ads were meant to set the record straight about Saxton's record.

"They're not attack ads at all. They explain his positions, using his own words," Kane said. "Our campaign has to do it because nobody else was."

Jim Moore, a political science professor at Pacific University, said the ads could animate what's been a low-key campaign.

"It's not necessarily negative campaigning, but it is hard-hitting campaigning," he said. "And two weeks out, we're going to have to see things like that to inject life into this campaign."

But Hibbitts questioned whether candidates' messages - positive or negative - can break through voters' skepticism. He said a conversation with a friend helped underscore that notion.

`He votes all the time ... but he said, `I've gotten to the point where voting is like taking out the cat litter. It's just something that has to be done,' ' Hibbitts said.