Pioneering a New Space Age.

Expect the unexpected as a new space age gets under way.

For centuries, increasingly sophisticated telescopes and observational instruments have been searching and studying the cosmos. Spacecraft, manned and unmanned, already have begun the daunting task of exploring outer space. Sometime prior to the year 3000, perhaps as early as 2500, extraterrestrial enterprise--a new space age--will become the main engine of economic activity. Astrophysics and a score of other new disciplines and fields of inquiry will slowly but steadily pry into the infinite wonders of the universe.

Associations encompassing a wide range of space-related interests stand poised to play a pivotal role in this coming space age. With foresight and vision, they will help their members capitalize on the promise represented by new space frontiers. The ability of associations to enhance communication, illuminate opportunities, and build bridges to society at large will become especially important as extraterrestrial enterprises take center stage.

Exploring the cosmos

Cosmic dimensions are so overwhelmingly vast that they defy comprehension. The Milky Way galaxy in which Earth is situated includes 200-400 billion stars, most accompanied by numerous planets and satellites. Beyond this lies the immense universe encompassing 125 billion other galaxies.

Undaunted by these enormous dimensions, space entrepreneurs already are poised to capitalize on various commercial ventures. Far-fetched as it may seem, cosmic burial of cremated last remains is already a reality--and several adventure travel companies are taking reservations from thrill-seeking vacationers intent on taking the first seven-day civilian space flights scheduled for 2002. Space colonization and mining operations in deep space are also anticipated by adventuresome risk-takers.

Space-age undertakings already long under way involve trillions of dollars that associations and other organizations have played key roles in securing. Without hard-won government research and development support, funding for prototype aerospace boosters, spacecraft, instruments (ranging from the Hubble telescope to spy-in-the-sky satellites), and extraterrestrial exploration, U.S. leadership in these growing fields would be less likely.

Association activities in support of ballistic missiles and antimissile systems helped end the Cold War. Now, ongoing programs pave the way for commercial development, with hundreds of billions of dollars committed or close to being so. Enormous fortunes and the fate of many giant companies hang in the balance, counting on continued initiatives to advance these efforts.

Overshadowed by such commercial considerations--and off the radar screens of most Americans--are the frightening calculations determining the timing of the inevitable death of planet Earth--additional motivation to proceed with research into the uses of outer space. Five billion years from now, when the Sun's helium runs out, heat and energy from the Sun's inner core will cause its outer layers to swell and form a scorching planetary nebula. Luminosity of the Sun will increase 2,000-fold. The Intense build-up of searing heat will long since have dried up surface water, and Earth will be turned into a scorched cinder. Eight billion years from now, the Sun's outer layers will swell to 166 times their current size, engulfing Mercury, Venus, Earth, and possibly Mars. These developments make it imperative to begin gaining know-how for moving out of harm's way and into outer space. Other threats to Earth's fate will require creative responses. (See sidebar, "Asteroid Angst.")

Government, military boost aerospace developments

The longest journey begins with the first step. Rocket pioneer Robert Goddard's first successful rocket launch lasted a mere 2.5 seconds with the rocket reaching an altitude of only 41 feet and landing 184 feet from the launch site. The Wright brothers' first heavier-than-air flight was so short that take off and landing could have occurred inside a Boeing 747 jet aircraft. Yet, entire segments of the national economy grew from these modest beginnings.

The first space pioneers faced many naysayers as they labored to develop reliable rocket propulsion systems. They were not unlike many other scientists on the leading edge of change, poised to pierce the validity of established thinking and concepts. A voice as authoritative as The New York Times once explained to readers that rockets would not work in the vacuum of space because there would simply he nothing to push against.

Nevertheless, government research and development--conducted principally by the military and, more currently, NASA--provided the start-up for flying machines, jet aircraft, spaceships, satellites, and many other aerospace technologies too numerous to mention. The Cold War missile race that dominated aerospace spending consumed trillions of dollars. During the 1990s, NASA's annual budget hovered in the $14-15 billion range.

Now a top-secret military surveillance aircraft propelled by a pulse-detonation engine is reported to have achieved a top speed of Mach 8. NASA's X-43 scramjet, undergoing test flights is expected to hit Mach 10, about 7,600 miles per hour, making it possible to reach destinations anywhere on Earth within two hours.

NASA's space-shuttle operations ($2.4 billion in 1994) also work toward developing faster hyperspace aircraft with a goal to eventually replace the space shuttle. NASA's X-33 model, already test flown, is expected to attain Mach 15 speed and fly at an altitude of 45.5 miles.

Despite these advances, traveling beyond the solar system to neighboring star systems, galaxies, and beyond remains problematic due to the enormous speed required to reach distant far realms. Miraculous breakthroughs in propulsion systems are essential for this undertaking, considering that the Milky Way alone extends 100-130 thousand light years across space. Travel to the nearest galaxy beyond the Milky Way, Andromeda--situated two million light years away--involves a journey of 500,000 years, assuming speed-of-light travel.

So far, velocities of 334,800 mph have been demonstrated in research laboratories, a far cry from the 670,616,629 mph speed of light. There are, however, a number of propulsion systems under consideration or development that hold promise including electro-magnetic rail guns, ion engines, nuclear-bomb driven systems, anti-matter systems, magnetic sails, fusion plasma, antimatter plasma, black hole transport, and wormhole transport.

Government and military applications of many new technologies often precede commercial development. Only within the last few years, have commercial applications caught up and taken the lead. By 2020, a hypersonic Mach 5 aircraft with 600 passenger seats is expected to be available. Commercial aviation, desperately seeking faster and bigger aircraft, will be a beneficiary of continuing developments.

Continued prodding of government projects will require collective efforts by all aerospace associations, including the Aerospace Industries Association of America, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Aerospace Education Foundation, National Association of Rocketry, and the Space Commerce Roundtable Foundation. A wide spectrum of associations are interested in the development of faster aircraft, including the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Air Transport Association, Aircraft Electronics Association, Airline Suppliers Association, American Association of Airport Executives, and Army Aviation Association of America.

Satellites undergird economic wave

Satellite and space station platform capabilities dominating current extra-terrestrial undertakings are both numerous and diverse. The spectrum of activities includes communication, mobile telephony, Internet services, remote telemedicine, observation (Earth and astral), science research, meteorology, navigation, and space exploration. Military uses, essentially surveillance and weaponry (offensive and defensive), no longer dominate the field. In the early 1990s, commercial launches accounted for about 10 percent of total launches, increasing to 20 percent in 1994 and to 70 percent in 1998.

Communication satellites. Military technologies gave development of these satellites an early boost. Sputnik II, launched almost 50 years ago, was the first man-made satellite to orbit Earth. A basketball-size object weighing a mere 175 pounds, it managed to set off a superpower space race.

Satellite activities, which encompass various orbits ranging from low to high altitude, have become such an important economic sector that Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of London-based Barclays Bank, recently established a trade index based on 30 select satellite and space-based undertakings. Financial considerations are enormous and growing as evidenced by a number of indicators.

* Commercial satellite launches between 1999-2009 have been valued at $140 billion. Launch services and space insurance revenues totaled $8 billion in 1997 and $10 billion in 1998. Additional cost for launch systems and ground services are tagged at $70 billion.

* Annual revenues from telephone services, high-speed Internet access, and imaging expected to be generated by satellites are expected to reach $150 billion in 2008, according to the International Space Business Council.

* Teledesic, a venture backed by Craig O. McCaw and William "Bill" H. Gates III, plans a constellation of 280-288 low-orbit satellites. This "Internet in the sky" targets global video mobile units and high-speed video Internet services. Launches are scheduled to commence in 2003 and costs may rise to $15 billion.

* Inmarsat, inaugurated as a cooperative arrangement between 64 governments to service satellite communication for ships, went commercial in 1999 (U.S. Comsat had been the largest holder). This system relies on nine geosynchronous satellites 22,500 miles above the Earth.

* Boeing acquired the satellite construction division of Hughes Electronics Corporation for $3.75 billion in 2000. The company also recently beat our Lockheed Martin by winning a $4.5 billion contract from the National Reconnaissance Office to build a new generation of spy satellites.

Commercial observation satellites. While services, investments, and revenues for this field are minuscule compared to those associated with communication satellites, observation satellites still represent an important up-and-coming technology. Space Imaging, Inc., a $700 million joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Company, provides one meter images of land-based targets. The U.S. intelligence community is expected to spend at least $1 billion for these commercial images over the next five years. Until satellite intelligence moved into the private sector, associations representing these technologies, such as the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, were constrained by a cloak of secrecy. Technology that makes it possible to reproduce images mere inches in size, as well as the great demand for such services, will greatly impact this field.

Weather/meteorological satellites. Satellites have long been utilized to monitor factors affecting weather. Commencing with launches during the 1990s, NASA's Earth Observing System is planned to measure 16 of the 24 factors considered instrumental in creating weather conditions: aerosols, air temperature, clouds, fires, glaciers, land temperature, natural disasters, ocean productivity, ocean temperature, pollution, radiation, sea ice, snow cover, vegetation (blight, stress, deforestation, etc.), and water vapor. Congress appropriated $7.4 billion to develop, implement, and operate the program, which commenced in 1991, through October 2001. Plans call for a complement of an additional 15 satellites over 15-18 years to comprehensively monitor weather conditions.

Navigational satellites. The U.S. military global positioning system uses a belt of 20-30 satellites to pinpoint locations. GPS applications include vehicular navigation and recreational marine uses. The U.S. market for GPS applications reached $2.07 billion in 1999, an annual increase of 21.1 percent, and is projected to reach $4.6 billion by 2006.

Astronomic satellites. The Large Space (Hubble) Telescope satellite cost $1.54-$2 billion to design and develop, $600 million to launch, and another $664-$800 million for initial mirror repairs and servicing during 1993. Total Hubble mission costs are estimated at $4 billion. Replacement with the Next Generation Space Telescope, slotted for a one-million-mile-high orbit where gravity of the Sun and Earth cancel one another, is budgeted at $500 million. The Darwin Project, mounted by the European Space Agency, contemplates six telescopes, each the size of the Hubble instrument, linked in a 100-yard diameter array, placed in orbit between Mars and Jupiter.

Initial targets for examination include the planetary systems associated with the 300 nearest stars. Up until 1995, confirmed evidence of known planets was limited to the nine planets in this solar system. By mid-2000, at least 12 extra-solar planets had been discovered. Considering that there may be as many as 450 million luminous stars in our galaxy alone, the search for other life forms gets a major push from these developments.

Extraterrestrial exploration. Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence commenced in 1974 via the intentional beaming of radio signals to other worlds (cluster M13). Earth-based monitoring has been complemented with limited satellite observations. Astronomers hope to place large arrays of radio telescopes in orbit to escape some interference from radio transmission interference on Earth. Beyond this they hope one day to place a radio telescope on the back side of the moon intended to block out electromagnetic interferences emanating from Earth.

Satellite surveillance advances plethora of interests

Data collected by satellites has been used for years to predict crop and land-use conditions, such as soil moisture, drainage, irrigation-system placement, and optimal times for fertilization and harvesting. Satellite imagery also enables maritime interests to locate rich fishing grounds and to measure plankton and other bounties of the seas.

The entire range of associations representing the agribusiness sector-- from farm gate to consumer consumption--has a keen interest in satellite surveillance systems. Associations interested in large area monitoring include the National Grain and Feed Association and the National Fisheries Institute. Likewise, a host of associations interested in mineral exploration, location, and confirmation have a keen interest in resource monitoring: the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, American Petroleum Institute, Mineral Policy Center, Minerals Metals and Materials Society, National Mining Association, and World Resources Institute.

Satellites that collect solar energy to beam power back to electric distribution grids on Earth have been proposed over the years. Practical considerations, particularly cost, discourage these efforts, which are estimated at 3,000 times the cost of a nuclear power plant, and 6,000 times the cost of a natural gas generating facility on Earth.

As is true for most fledgling technologies, including solar energy, support often involves inputs from many associations with incidental or indirect interests. Prominent among those specifically dedicated to advancing interests in solar energy is the American Solar Energy Society.

The near vacuum of outer space also provides an environment useful in achieving certain desired properties in materials synthesis. Orbital locations minimize the distorting effects of gravity and enable growing near-perfect crystals and other compounds. Extreme temperatures offer other obvious opportunities for achieving new breakthroughs. Production of high-tech materials in extraterrestrial labs may be too costly, at least at current stages of development, to be practical. Experimental research and development leading to valuable patents, or intellectual property, may be the object of this costly research.

Controlling physical parameters that make experimentation and industrial production in outer space economically attractive involves the concerted efforts of a host of scientific-based associations, including the American Association of Engineering Societies, American Chemical Society, American Institute of Chemical Engineers, American Institute of Chemists, American Institute of Physics, and the American Physical Society. Associations with immediate interests in extraterrestrial research and development opportunities include those in materials sciences, such as the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, and the Semiconductor Industry Association.

In the pharmaceutical and life-sciences sector, a vast profusion of organizations have significant stakes, including the International Association of Pharmaceutical Science and Technology, Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine, American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists, Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology, American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, and the American Society for Cell Biology.

Cosmic enterprises soar

Possibilities for commercial ventures may be as endless as the cosmos itself. There are those who envision the creation of gravity-free "handicapped havens" in the heavens to assist persons afflicted with certain illnesses or coping with mobility impairments. Others foresee such adventures as gravity-free thrill rides in space-based theme parks. Hundreds of years before the new space age takes center stage in the nation's economy, entrepreneurs are already staking their claim to the possible fortunes to be made in cosmic commerce. As they do so, they also pave the way for the growth of associations.

Celestial burial. Celestial disposal of cremated remains is already a reality. Cost varies depending upon one's ultimate destination. Houston-based Celestis offers such "burial" services at a rate competitive with commercial mortician services: $4,800 for a piggyback ride on communication-launching rockets. Also offered is an infinite journey into space for $50,000, to the moon for $12,500, and to the Van Allen asteroid belt for only $3,000.

In terms of the ultimate in convenience, New Space Funeral services offers a mail-in service. Sending last remains heavenward keeps pace with the digital age. By simply mailing in a hair sample, message, and photo, a digitized version of customers' "remains" will be delivered en-masse on board a launch scheduled for 2001. Organizations that may have an interest in such new ventures include the National Funeral Directors and Morticians Association and National Funeral Directors Association.

Cosmic messages. A number of different money-making activities have emerged to service those who want to announce their presence to the cosmos. Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, in conjunction with Houston-based Encounter 2001, observed the advent of the new millennium by transmitting New Year's Eve messages into the cosmos. Beaming a 30-word message into the universe costs a mere $19.95.

Virtual presence in outer space is also available from AeroAstro, Inc., a Herndon, Virginia, satellite company. A CD disk, including a digitized picture and one-page message, costs $25 while a freeze-dried hair sample and DNA readout costs another $25. By early 1999, more than 45,000 people had signed up for the launch, scheduled for 2001. The Yevpatoriya Radio Astronomy lab in the Ukraine beams cosmic messages of the upcoming launch.

Space flights for the public. Adventure, thrill-seeking, and out-of-this-world recreational experiences serving vacationers for whom money is no object are being dreamed up. Commercial trips for live adventures range from simulation and training, through sub-orbital weightless flights, to longer-term flights. Some adventures are already available while other services still-in-the-making are being sold by entrepreneurs:

* Seattle-based Zagraham Expeditions began taking reservations for a seven-day space flight in October 1997. By early 2000, 250 reservations for the $98,000 flight, which is scheduled for late 2002, had been taken.

* ShareSpace, formed in 1998 by former astronaut Buzz Aldrin, estimates that at least 40,000 individuals would spend $1 million each to visit space. Plans call for hosting 100 passengers in clusters of orbiting hotels at a cost of $100,000 per guest. Aldrin also serves as an adviser to Arlington, Virginia-based Luna Corporation, a firm touted as an early booster of space tourism.

* Pete Conrad, yet another former astronaut, is CEO of Universal Space Lines that envisions developing a space airline.

Adventure travel company surveys estimate that 10,000 people would pay $1 million or more each for an adventure in space. Advocates of such ventures suggest two-week vacations could be priced in the $500,000 range per person. Promoters believe that orbital payload will have to drop to $100 per pound before significant space tourism takes off.

Space shuttle launches currently cost $100 million per crew member. Reusable rockets are considered the key to bringing orbital payload costs down. Organized in 1996, the X Prize Foundation, St. Louis, is offering a $10 million prize to the first venture that launches three passengers to an altitude of at least 62 miles, returns them to earth, and re-launches within 14 days. At least 18 teams had entered the competition as of July 2000.

Hilton Hotels and British Airways commissioned a study by Space Island Group, West Covina, California, to survey prospects for shuttle service to and from visits to an orbiting hotel. The study proposed using abandoned space shuttle fuel tanks (154 feet long and 28 feet in diameter) connected in a wheel-like arrangement and spun to simulate micro-gravity conditions aboard; shuttle travel would be leased from NASA. A maximum of 300 guests could be accommodated at $20,000 each per week. Estimated cost to construct such a 3,000-mile-high orbiting, luxury hotel: $15 billion. Looking further ahead, the research firm foresees moon colonization by 2006.

The concept is not as far-fetched as it may appear. NASA converted part of a Saturn 5 rocket into the first space station (Skylab) in 1973 to accommodate three astronauts. In other developments, Bigelow Aerospace has plans for cruising space hotels that will shuttle between Earth and the moon. Designed to carry 100 passengers and a SO-person staff, flights could begin as early as 2015. The project is backed by $500 million from Robert Bigelow who made his fortune as owner of the Budget Suite of America hotel chain.

Although these first steps into space tourism are modest, the significance is immense. Among the associations representing interests affected by such concepts are the American Hotel and Motel Association, Hospitality Financial and Technology Professionals, Hospitality Sales and Marketing Association International, and the International Association of Convention and Visitor Bureaus.

Perhaps less obvious as a growth component of extraterrestrial enterprise are the engineering training programs required to support far-flung programs. Special courses focused on building lunar habitats, for example, have been established at the University of California in Los Angeles. Colleges, including George Washington University, Washington, D.C., and the Rochester Institute of Technology, New York, have also begun to offer special training programs designed for budding space tourism experts.

Accommodating coming change

This series of articles has described five impending entrepreneurial mainsprings, each with the power to change global economies, livelihoods, and humanity itself. It ends with the pursuit of space, the final frontier.

Better understanding of the universe lays the foundation for dealing with the catastrophic changes in the Sun that threaten to reduce Earth to a scorched cinder. Long before, then, the new space era will provide the know-how to move out of reach and into other galaxies.

Some of the eras previously reviewed will undoubtedly require the wisdom of Solomon to negotiate, especially the life-sciences era with its capabilities to design and control life itself. The new atomic age underscores the urgent need to develop thermonuclear fusion to replace rapidly depleting fossil fuels. The impending leisure era that is "less than a mortgage away" will see the emergence of a more hedonistic society by 2015. Worriers of every era who have fretted for thousands of years that resources will run out will sing a different tune when the limitless potential of the meta-material era gains its ascendancy.

These articles reaffirm the concept that there literally is nothing new under the sun. Change comes about step-by-step in plodding increments. The progress and the plight of humanity always has, and always will, address the self-same problems: food, shelter, clothing, health, transportation, and so forth. It is only the differences in how these needs and tasks are accomplished that change.

Each of the five economic eras looming on the horizon is foreseeable. Each one is merely a continuous extension of the long and steady march of science, technology, and human genius. To be sure, economic sectors once riding high will experience decline. To minimize dislocations and suffering imposed by those transitions requires conscious planning and foresight, and it is here, especially, that associations will continue to play a major role as they lead their members into the future.

Graham T. T. Molitor is vice president and legal counsel, World Future Society, Bethesda, Maryland, and president, Public Policy Forecasting, Potomac, Maryland.

Editor's note: The third millennium may have just begun, but it's never too soon to find out what role associations will play in our ever-changing world. This article, the final in a six-part series, discusses space-age pursuits that will dominate the nation's economy from approximately 2500 to 3000. Series' author Graham T. T. Molitor, vice president and legal counsel, World Future Society, Bethesda, Maryland, and president, Public Policy Forecasting, Potomac, Maryland, has described the coming waves of economic activity he forecasts will dominate the United States and how these eras will impact associations. Molitor's new books, The Next 1,000 Years and a multiple-volume Chronology of Civilization, comprehensively describing patterns of change, are scheduled for release in 2002.

The previous articles in the Molitor series published in ASSOCIATION MANAGEMENT included: "Beyond the Fourth Wave," December 1999; "The Dawn of the Leisure Era," February 2000; "Life-Sciences Era Evolves Amidst Controversy," May 2000; "The Brave New World of Meta-Materials," July 2000; and "On the Threshold of a New Atomic Age," September 2000.

Asteroid Angst

More than 8,500 asteroids have been catalogued and concerted searching turns up hundreds more every year. Cataclysmic collisions with asteroids are relatively rare, but they do occur. About 65 million years ago, the calamitous collision of an asteroid in the Yucatan caused the extinction of three-fourths of all life forms on Earth.

Forewarning provides opportunities for coping with these random possibilities. Disaster-prevention efforts could possibly engage enormous manpower as well as commitments of financial resources. Explosive devices capable of obliterating, deflecting, or minimizing the hazards of asteroids have been under study for some time. Some space enthusiasts, seeking to turn potential problems into opportunities, envision hollowing out asteroids, installing propulsion systems, and using them as spacecraft. Others eye their mineral wealth.

Although asteroid research represents a relatively minor aspect of economic pursuits in the forthcoming space age, the potential harm posed by behemoth-size celestial bodies clearly demonstrates the importance of such undertakings. Associations in the forefront of this field include the American Astronomical Society, the Planetary Society, and the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy.

Legacy of Largesse 

Private initiatives and incentives played an important role in developing air travel as we know it today. Raymond Orteig, a French hotelier put up a purse of $25,000 to encourage Lindbergh to fly nonstop across the Atlantic Ocean. Whether he envisioned the massive impact his gesture would have on travel, tourism, and the hotel business is anyone's guess. But his legacy of private involvement appears destined to play a significant role in the new space age to come.