Perfecting the science of disaster.

There is hardly a more surreal scene than that of the eerie and silent devastation wreaked by major natural disasters. Add to that the odd sight of individuals arriving with small metal suitcases and what look like large umbrellas that they quickly unpack like someone's bizarre idea of the beginning of a picnic.

While this might give the impression of a futuristic Hollywood film set, it is actually a realistic picture of how today's disaster teams use the latest portable technologies to carry out immediate on-site analyses of damage and risk caused by natural disasters.

The suitcases and mock umbrellas are compact mobile satellite systems capable of transmitting audio, data, fax and telex communications signals. The information is fed into supercomputers and plugged into other communications networks. Within minutes, scientists and disaster specialists who are thousands of miles away are geared to respond to the crisis, aided by sophisticated computer models.

"The technology has advanced to the point where anyone on the scene with very little training can talk anywhere around the world", said John Scott, an American specialist in disaster telecommunications with the Center for Public Communications in Arlington, Virginia.

"The layman will become more important in this field because the new technologies are 'user-friendly'. Not only has the cost come down, but there are fewer moving parts and fewer buttons to push."

Mr. Scott is one of many professionals cooperating with UN and outside agencies in the work of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, which now links a wide range of information networks to allow for a truly inter-disciplinary approach to disaster mitigation.

The information may vary from knowledge about geographical studies to land-use planning ideas, even to sociological studies into human behaviour in crisis. When all these elements are put together, they produce anything from weather maps to emergency evacuation procedures that field staff can instantly implement.

At present, there are four types of communications systems in use. A fixed satellite system consists of a space satellite with ground stations on earth. An example is Intelset, an international system in which each country has its independent ground facility. Another is the portable satellite system, which consists of mobile equipment packed into two suitcases. A third is a terrestrial mobile cellular system that operates in a manner similar to a car phone, in that it can transmit and receive electronic signals through a fixed ground tower, but is limited in its operating vicinity. Fourth is a terrestrial telecommunications wire system commonly used in cities for telephone and telegraph communications.

Among the UN information networks is CLICOM, a computer system of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), that is establishing climate-data management systems in all Member countries as a major Decade activity.

The World Weather Watch of WMO is another system that transmits information about weather and environmental conditions, as monitored by more than 10,000 stations. Recent use of polar orbiting and geostationary satellites has enhanced the quantity and accuracy of such data.

In response to the growing ozone depletion problem, WMO set up the Global Ozone Observing System, which uses the technology of satellite remote-sensing to monitor the atmospheric hole that develops each year over the Antarctic.

Complementing these systems is the information gathered by networks, such as the International Network of Earthquake Engineering Centres, set up by the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization in 1986 to carry out pilot projects and training courses for engineers in developing countries.

Other important UN bodies, such as the UN Development Programme, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, and the UN Environment Programme, have responded to the Decade's challenges by sharing the tasks of data collection, applications, impact studies, research and training regarding the range of disaster-related mitigation efforts.

The information these systems generate is often disseminated through the United Nations International Emergency Network (UNIENET), established by the Office of the UN Disaster Relief Coordinator (UNDRO) in late 1987 to provide immediate disaster-related information to agencies and organizations working in the field.

A computerized network, UNIENET functions as a kind of "bulletin board" for information exchange from such sources as the Pan-American Health Organization of WHO, Washington; the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre of the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok; the Pan-Caribbean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project, Antigua; the Secretariat of the Decade, as well as UNDRO, both in Geneva.

A range of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and disaster-related groups, such as the International Committee of Voluntary Agencies, InterAction, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Red Crescent Societies, also communicate via UNIENET.

As Decade activities have expanded, so has UNIENET's role in providing users with information about new scientific and technological advances in disaster mitigation work and their potential application in other areas. A shift in climate, for example, can affect a range of development activities, such as food production, water resource management, energy and transport, communications, as well as industrial processes.

Satellites and remote-sensing technology can provide not only advance warning of climate changes, but problem-solving models to sidetrack potential disasters.

In 1985, world scientists at the Villach International Conference predicted that, within 50 years, the global mean temperature of the earth's atmosphere could increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Centigrade due to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and "greenhouse" gases. This "global warming" would lead to a rise of 20 to 140 centimetres in the mean global sea-level.

Today, with supercomputers, this trend could be stopped. Scientists and professionals in the field are already putting in place a variety of mitigation strategies, based on computer desk top simulation exercises that mimic the activity of the "greenhouse" and other effects on the atmosphere.

A great part of the success of computer models will depend, somewhat ironically, on the very subjective nature of human behaviour.

"A big challenge for us is to get the users and producers of knowledge together, so that producers ask the right questions when they create their programmes", said Phil Burke, a land-use planner at the Texas A & M University's College of Architecture Hazard Reduction and Recovery Centre, one of several UNDRO-designed collaborating centres. "This also helps users get sensitized to the new technologies."

Last year, the A & M University's Centre began a cooperative programme with UNDRO to, among other things, evaluate how new technologies are being incorporated into local strategies in developing countries.

Better equipment, Mr. Burke said, has made technology use "ubiquitous" in the developing world. That has permitted local disaster teams to rapidly gather more information from the field during, rather than after, disasters. This has also improved the computer models developed by scientists in the more developed nations.

"Most of the technologies we are talking about now are for field applications", explained Mr. Burke. "As communication becomes cheaper and lighter, it will be able to be used even more by developing countries."

Among the political challenges presented by the Decade are the need to facilitiate emergency access by disaster teams to "closed" police or military frequencies and to establish international guidelines on the movement of mobile communications equipment with relief workers.