Pax Americana In Iraq Is Changing - Part 8 - The Kurdistan Test.

Kurdistan now is seen as the next front in the ongoing war in Iraq. The new flashpoint is the oil-rich city of Kirkuk which could develop into a front just as additional US troops arrive in Baghdad and Anbar province as reinforcements for battles there.

The main enemy of the Americans and Kurds in Kirkuk are Neo-Salafi groups made up of Sunni extremists linked to al-Qaeda and determined to plunge the whole of Iraq into civil war. The Neo-Salafi fighters there include Kurdish, Turkmen and Arab extremists influenced by and affiliated with al-Qaeda.

The Los Angeles Times on Feb. 2 said: "American officials, regional leaders and [Kirkuk] residents are increasingly worried that al-Qaeda-linked fighters recently have surfaced in Kirkuk, launching a wave of lethal attacks". These attacks come amid a rise in communal tensions in the months before a referendum on the status of Kirkuk and the surrounding province.

Elsewhere in Iraq, Shi'ites and Sunnis are locked in a bitter civil war. In Kirkuk, the two groups have a common cause against the Kurds, a non-Arab minority which dominates Iraq's far-northern provinces. The Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens, another minority group, each want control of Kirkuk and the region. At stake are land, water and some of Iraq's largest oil reserves.

None of the groups want war, they say. Yet everyone in Kirkuk appears to be preparing for it. Shaikh Abdul-Rahman Obeidi, a prominent Sunni Arab leader in Kirkuk, on Feb. 2 was quoted as saying: "They are right when they call it a time bomb. We will not leave [Kirkuk], and we will not let anyone take Kirkuk. We are ready to fight. We hope we won't have to, but we're ready".

Kurdish leaders, in turn, warn that they will take the city by law or by force. Kurdish Councilman Rebwar Fa'iq Talabani said: "People don't have any more patience. They are telling the government, 'If you can't get our rights back, we'll do it by ourselves'".

Neighbouring countries, especially Turkey, Iran and Syria, fear that if the Kurds do gain control of Kirkuk, Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region would have the confidence and economic power to move towards independence. That could embolden Kurdish militants in the surrounding countries and further destabilise the region.

Turkish officials recently have threatened to intervene if the Kurds take over Kirkuk and have warned against efforts to change the city's population balance. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in January said: "Turkey cannot stand idly by, watching the efforts to change the demographic structure of Kirkuk".

Turkish officials recently hosted a conference in Ankara on the future of Kirkuk. Participants included Sunni Arab and Turkmen parties as well as the political party affiliated with radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, all of whom oppose Kirkuk's inclusion in Kurdistan. None of the main Kurdish parties were invited, and Kurdish lawmakers responded angrily, denouncing what they described as Turkish interference.

Against this backdrop of ethnic, political and regional tensions, Iraq's new constitution mandates that a referendum on control of Kirkuk be held by the end of 2007. If the vote goes ahead as scheduled, most analysts expect the Kurds to win. Kurdish bureaucrats are pushing through little-noticed administrative decisions which will take away the voting rights of tens of thousands of Arabs.

In 2006, at least 325 people were killed and 1,390 wounded in Kirkuk, a city of about 1 million. During the first three weeks of this year, bombings and assassinations left 23 dead and 102 injured. On Jan. 28 two car bombs killed 11 people and wounded 34. Maj. Gen. Anwar Muhammad Amin, the top Iraqi commander in Kirkuk, was on Feb. 2 quoted as saying: "We expect increased violence when we get closer to" the referendum.

The emergence of fighters from two Neo-Salafi groups with ties to al-Qaeda after years of lying low is especially troublesome. The groups, Jaysh Ansar al-Sunna and the Islamic Army in Iraq, have launched a bombing campaign targeting politicians and civilians. Their aim is to foment violence between ethnic and sectarian groups much as they have done in Baghdad and elsewhere. Jaysh Ansar al-Sunna, an offshoot of al-Qaeda-linked Ansar al-Islam, has among its fighters Kurds and Turkmens as well as volunteers from other Arab countries.

The presence in Kirkuk of Sunni Arab guerrillas as al-Qaeda associates serves Kurds in their goal of taking control of the oil city and its environs by making the aims of their rivals seem less legitimate. Assassinations, bombings and attacks on Kurdish parties' headquarters by Shi'ite militias and Sunni groups linked to al-Qaeda "are now all part of Kirkuk's violent landscape", said a report in January from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Turkmen and Arab politicians have been targeted in apparent retaliation by Kurds.

The report said: "Kirkuk is as likely as Baghdad to produce a calamity that can fracture Iraq", recommending a delay of the referendum. The International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-profit think tank based in Belgium, and the US government's bipartisan Iraq Study Group (ISG) also have recommended postponement. But for Kurds, this year presents a historic opportunity they will not part with willingly.

If Kirkuk were annexed to their region, Kurds would no longer be economically beholden to the rest of Iraq. Without Kirkuk, however, Kurdistan is not an economically viable state. Once a distant dream carried in the heart of Kurdish peshmerga fighters as they battled Iraqi Ba'thist dictator Saddam's army in the mountains, full independence is now tantalisingly within reach.

If the timetable leading to the referendum was not followed, Kirkuk will be thrust into chaos, said the provincial councilman Talabani, adding: "It will be a civil war. Worse than Baghdad, because it will be a battle of ethnicities".

For nationalist Arabs and minority Turkmens, Kurdish appropriation of Kirkuk would signify the first step towards Iraq's disintegration. Turkmens do not want to become part of an independent Kurdistan, but they do not want to be controlled by Baghdad either. Most Arabs want to remain part of a unified Iraq.

As the various constituencies manoeuvre before the referendum, the issue of just who has the right to vote is emerging as a major point of contention. In 1957, the year of Kirkuk's last reliable census, Turkmens made up 40% of the population, whereas Kurds composed 35%, Arabs 24% and Christians 1%. In the surrounding province, Kurds were a majority, constituting 55% of the inhabitants.

During the 1970s, however, Saddam forcibly removed 250,000 Kurds from Kirkuk, giving their property to Arabs in an effort to "Arabise" the city and its oil. Many of the new residents were Shi'ites moved to Kirkuk from villages in the south. Since the US-led invasion in 2003, the demographics have shifted again. Thousands of Arabs and Turkmens have left because of political pressure and violence. And as many as 350,000 Kurds have come to Kirkuk.

In dilapidated camps throughout the city, thousands of Kurds now wait for property claims to be resolved. Kurdish officials complain that the government in Baghdad is slowing the process. The Kurds want Arabs who moved to Kirkuk under Saddam to return to the south, and the recent administrative steps are aimed at removing them as potential voters in the referendum.

Kurdish officials have recently proposed a cash incentive for Arabs, compensation of about US$19,000 for each family willing to give up property and voting rights in the city. The tens of thousands of Arabs affected would be allowed to stay - though required to live in other accommodations - but would not be able to vote on Kirkuk's future.

Adnan Mufti, the powerful speaker of Kurdistan's regional parliament, was on Feb. 2 quoted as saying: "I don't believe they have the right to vote in the referendum". He said even Arabs born in Kirkuk to parents who came from the south will be ineligible, adding: "It's the mistake of their fathers".

Arabs and Turkmens accuse Kurdish politicians of gerrymandering and administrative jujitsu. Abass Ahmed, a 60-year-old Turkmen, was on Feb. 2 quoted as saying: "Many of the Kurds who returned to Kirkuk are not the original residents of the city. They are actually Kurds from other Kurdish regions".

Because of the demographic shifts and the Sunni Arab boycott of the 2005 election, Arabs already have little representation in the city. Kurds control 26 of the 41 provincial council seats as well as the army, police and intelligence services in the city.

Iraqi security forces in Kirkuk mostly strike against Arab neighbourhoods. But this is because Jaysh Ansar al-Sunna and the Islamic Army in Iraq are considered as being primarily Arab groups. But residents and international observers accuse the Kurds of abusing Arabs and Turkmens and holding them in secret and largely unsupervised prison facilities.

Obeidi, the Sunni Arab sheikh, said: "We are being insulted especially in the Arab villages and the Arab neighbourhoods. I think, for the Kurdish forces, it's like revenge". These alleged human rights violations inflame the situation, analysts warn and local politicians confirm. A politician from Kirkuk recently told the ICG: "We are all arming ourselves. We are afraid. There is talk of civil war. Anything could start it".