Past winners: trade leaders.

Jose Maria Aznar

As Spain's corporate masters dumped tens of billions of dollars into Latin America in the 1990s, Prime Minister Aznar backed their forays with 3% average economic growth, reduced taxes, relaxed labor rules and privatization. Aznar engineered Spain's entry into the European Union and the economic bloc's single currency in his first term. A former tax inspector, the center-right politician is often criticized for being a boring leader compared to his predecessor, Felipe Gonzalez, a post-Franco Socialist whose popularity was finally overcome by scandals after 13 years in power. A landslide reelection in 2000 for Aznar's Partido Popular put the vote strongly behind prosperity over personality, a first for modern Spain.

Latin America was a big bet--no European country took bigger risks in the region--but while most global investors are crying in their beer, Spain Inc. is holding steady and even moving forward in telecom and banking while assets are cheap. Aznar's right-wing party lost a bid for a third term to the Socialists days after the March 11, 2004 terrorist bombing of a Madrid train station. Writing in his new autobiography, Aznar describes the decision to increase investment in Latin America from $5 billion during the first half of the 1990s to $105 billion in the second half, roughly his first term as Prime Minister. "The years of expansion were intelligently taken advantage of And new problems have emerged. Such as the fact that we are seen as a subduing power, and that puts the whole situation and the future of development at risk," Aznar writes. "But when the situation has changed we've known how to resist and we've stayed there. That is what had to be done."

Ignacio Santillana

Ignacio Santillana del Barrio, 56, hails from Olot, Girona, in northeastern Spain. He graduated from the Barcelona Central University in 1971 with an Economic Science degree and soon after earned a master's degree and Ph.D. in economics at the University of Indiana, Bloomington. At present, he is the chief operating officer at Grupo Prisa, Spain's largest media company. His career includes board and management positions in banking and media, as well as his previous job, as chief executive officer at Telefonica Internacional and as chief financial officer and managing director of Telefonica during the Spanish telecoms big building in Latin America during the 1990s.

What is the most important trend or event of the past 10 years?

What I think has been the most important phenomenon to occur over the past years has been the disappearance of the discussion of which economic model to follow, be that concerning markets or resources, i.e., the end of the discussion as to follow either communism or capitalism. Today, we accept that the open-market system is good, and the only question that remains is how do we make it work better. The world now moves within this system--privatizations, open markets--in contrast to the centralized economies of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The acceptance of this mechanism toward democracy and capitalism is not even a topic of discussion in the West. The end of communist rule in the East, fall of the Berlin Wall, etc. has had a very important effect on the world. These developments have given momentum to capitalism but they have also left a vacuum in less-developed countries.

What about the next 10 years?

I don't know what's going to happen in the next 10 years, but I can tell you that one thing that will become more and more significant is the globalization of markets. The creation of broader markets is very important. From an economic standpoint, this trend is taking us beyond politics and borders. You are not only competing with others from your own country anymore, now you are competing with everyone. It's more sophisticated. Another element to this is the increase in access to information. More transparency, added to a more ample market, is what is going to dictate what's going to happen in the world. What this will create as well is an awareness of the difference between wealthy and poor nations. This is very relevant and it requires special attention. Each day people learn more about their rights and the global situation. It will generate reactions in the masses to compete more in the world economies. Another factor that will play a large role over the coming years is this terrorism, this new, uncontrollable terrorism. The understanding of this will be the key to understanding the next 10 years.

Teodoro Petkoff 

Once a jailed, leftist guerrilla, Teodoro Petkoff would go on to become former Venezuelan President Rafael Caldera's point man to carry out privatizations and other pro-market reforms that opened the country's economy. Petkoff, 72, is credited for warming relations between business leaders and unions. Calling himself a "pragmatic socialist," Petkoff says that armed conflict is not the way to bring about change. Today, he is the director of the Caracas daily Tal Cual, which opposes current Venezuela President Hugo Chavez.

Leonel Fernandez

The success of his policies during his first term as president of the Dominican Republic, (1996-2000), helped Leonel Fernandez make a strong comeback in his country's recent May presidential elections. During his first term the economy grew by 8% a year. After leaving office, the economy sunk to new lows under the government of ex-president Hipolito Mejia, while Fernandez stayed in the public eye by promoting his think tank, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development. Now, once again Dominican president, he is trying to revive the Caribbean nation by revisiting his tight fiscal policies of the late 1990s, attracting foreign investment and renewing capital flow.

What is the most important trend or event of the past 10 years?

I believe that the most important issue of the last 10 years was free trade. It started to become so 10 years ago, when heads of state and government in the Western Hemisphere met at the Summit of the Americas in Miami. From then on, free trade has been the dominant issue. The [Free Trade Area of the Americas] FTAA was created and the year 2004 was established as a date to complete negotiations. Obviously, it won't be possible, but there has been progress in bilateral trade agreements and regional agreements, with Central America, for example, with Chile and with the Dominican Republic. So I would say that free trade has been the most important economic issue. When I speak of free trade, I could also refer to a bigger aspect, which is the globalization issue. But free trade is a part of the overall issue of globalization. You would have to mention it along with financial flow and everything that has to do with the scientific-technological revolution, especially in the area of communications. The most important political issue has been terrorism

What about the next 10 years?

I think that the most important issue will continue to be the advancement of technology. However, the most important political issue will be terrorism, which will be part of the security agenda of all the major countries. Free trade will also be an important issue, as well as financial flow. Basically, I believe that the issues that have dominated the world in the last ten years will continue to dominate it during the next 10 years.

Ernesto Zeditto

Credited with opening Mexico's government and economy, former President Ernesto Zedillo believes that "the urgency behind social development is what dictates the urgency behind free trade." Upon taking office in 1994, Zedillo, now 52, inherited a Mexico that had signed a free trade agreement with Chile. The North American Free Trade Agreement with the United States and Canada wasn't even a year old, and the economy was a shambles. In the wake of the 1994 peso crisis, Zedillo adopted austerity measures and pushed forward on a string of free trade deals with Costa Rica, Venezuela, Colombia, Bolivia and Nicaragua. He also began free trade talks with the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block, the European Union and with Peru. His philosophy arguably worked--exports under his presidency rose by an average 20% in a year, breaking US$112 billion in 1997 and making Mexico Latin America's largest exporter. Today, Zedillo is director of the Center for the Study of Globalization at Yale, his alma mater.

Armando Catderon Sol

President of El Salvador from 1994 to 1999, Armando Calder6n Sol picked up the pieces after his country's devastating civil war, which ended in 1992. He surprised his party members--and the opposition--when he proposed to open the economy by privatizing state-owned companies and pension funds. He also modernized El Salvador's infrastructure and assimilated former guerrillas into society. On top of that, he took on the challenge of rebuilding the country after Hurricane Mirth raked the country in 1998, killing thousands across the region.

What is the most important trend or event of the past 10 years?

The destruction of the Twin Towers signaled a change in the global scenario. The fact that an attack was of such a magnitude and that the U.S. suffered from this impact marked a new stage in global living and relationships among people. This shows that there is no power that is invulnerable. We must remember that the world is a global village that must search for greater degrees of tolerance and respect among its citizens.

What about the next 10 years?

It will be a reaction to the [attacks], that the rule of law be reinforced in a restructured United Nations, and that this will truly be the forum where nations' international rights will be respected. It will be where we search for greater degrees of equality in the world and where there will not exist an air of scorn from the most powerful states. The world will be in big trouble if the United Nations is not equipped with greater power, and if it is not respected nor reformed. Furthermore, the Security Council must change, because there, a few countries make decisions but they affect everyone. If we don't take everything from the past into account the world will grow enormously complicated.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso 

Brazil's president from 1995 to 2003, sociologist Fernando Henrique Cardoso led one of the world's largest privatization programs and navigated the country through a series of economic shock waves.

A political exile under the military regime that ended in 1985, Cardoso represented Sao Paulo state as a senator in the 1980s. Later, he was foreign relations minister and then finance minister during the government of Itamar Franco. While finance minister, Cardoso carried out the Plan Beal, a 1994 economic stabilization plan that put an end to hyperinflation that had long plagued Brazil. As president, Cardoso dealt with the Asian and Russian financial crises, pushed through controversial privatizations and devalued the currency in 1999, a move that would improve the long-term health of the economy. Currently, Cardoso lectures at Brown University in the United States and directs the Instituto Fernando Henrique Cardoso, his presidential library and a forum for debates over the challenges facing Brazil and Latin America. When LATIN TRADE asked Cardoso how he would like to be remembered, he answered: "Is it worth it if people are going to be remembered? I don't know. People forget things quickly."

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Once considered a political agitator and a major cause of concern in global markets, Brazil's President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva quickly embraced open-market policies such as tax and pension reform and fiscal prudence after winning office in 2002. A long-term labor leader, Lula has also grown to become the voice for emerging-market economies in free-trade talks with industrialized nations.

Like him or not, economic indicators reflect his decisions; exports should approach US$100 billion for 2004, which was the government's goal for 2006. The markets have applauded also--one fund that bought when share prices were low amid election-year concerns reported a 128% return on investments during a nine-month period.

Even Wall Street agrees. Standard & Poor's, a U.S. ratings agency, raised both its rating and outlook for Brazil's sovereign debt due to "strong macroeconomic policy management," bringing Brazil close to investment grade. The agency attributed the robust increase in Brazilian exports not only to demand abroad but also to improvements made to the Brazilian economy, Those include broadening the export base and a government willingness to continue with economic reforms.

"We want an economic growth model for Brazil that will be one of sustained growth, of growth for several years consecutively. We don't want that growth to be for one year and, in the next year, no growth," Lula said recently. "So we're being cautious, that's why we are working with great patience, and that's why we always ask people to pay attention to what's happening in Brazil."

Ricardo Lagos

In 2000, Ricardo Lagos became the first socialist president of Chile since Salvador Allende was killed in a coup in 1973. After opposing the Pinochet regime, in 1990 he became Minister of Education for Patricio Aylwin's administration, and he next served as Minister of Public Works for Eduardo Frei's government. During his own presidency, Lagos has led Chile into a series of free trade pacts, including major deals with the European Union and the United States.

What is the most important trend or event of the past 10 years?

The digital protocol of 1994 that led to the development of the Internet as we know it today, with Web pages and sophisticated, high-speed search engines.

It seems incredible that only eight years ago the world's major newspapers began to extend their communications capabilities to the instantaneousness that they have today. And most importantly, they have given citizens the ability to participate in online forums.

In sum, the key in these ten years has been the eruption of simultaneousness and immediacy as the great bulwarks of globalization. At the Summit of the Americas in Chile in 1998, few people spoke of globalization with the level of awareness and commitment that they will have in Quebec, just as they had in Seattle and Porto Alegre. Today we are in the middle of a debate that seeks to give order to this new stage in the history of mankind.

What about the next 10 years?

The world cannot bear the permanently ascending poverty curve indicated by global statistics, nor can it bear the growing problems in unemployment. The challenge in the coming years is called "social cohesion." If we don't give certain basic levels of social cohesion to our countries and to the world then we will only be confronted with a scenario of insecurity, with all of its consequences.