PRODUCTION ISSUE A QUESTION FOR THE AGES.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI

Because it wouldn't be baseball season without a new statistic to chew on, today we present a simple formula that shows that Alex Rodriguez is worth the sport's biggest paycheck, that Greg Maddux is a match for men half his age, and that you'd rather have Adrian Beltre or Shawn Green than J.D. Drew.

It's called the Dorian Gray Index, which probably makes it the first stat to be inspired by a classic work of literature.

In ``The Picture of Dorian Gray,'' a handsome man's wish comes true when his portrait ages while he remains youthful.

The story doesn't turnout as well as Oscar Wilde's title character might have hoped. Still, doesn't this sound like a general manager's dream, a player whose bubble-gum card ages while his bat and arm remain boyish?

That's the premise for our little stat, which rates major-league players by equating the potential of those who are truly young and the value of those whose eternally reliable productivity keeps them looking young.

Attention fantasy-league GMs.

The Dorian Gray Index makes the case that the ideal lineup, position for position, would feature Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate, Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter in the infield, and Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Beltran and Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield.

And it argues that the best possible starting rotation would consist of C.C. Sabathia, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Zambrano, Jake Peavy and Maddux.

It also throws cold water on anybody coveting popular Paul Lo Duca, Hall of Fame candidate Rafael Palmeiro, Bret Boone, Mike Lowell, Edgar Renteria, Garrett Anderson, Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker.

And it proposes that a forward-looking player-personnel director would do as well with Ted Lilly as Randy Johnson, Jarrod Washburn as Roger Clemens, and Odalis Perez as Russ Ortiz.

Here's how the formula works. Most fans with a copy of the Baseball Register can do the calculations in their heads.

First, count up the number of seasons in which a hitter or starting pitcher was productive enough to put him in roughly the top one-fifth of major leaguers at his position. Easier than it sounds.

A hitter at the field positions meets the standard if he records 150 runs produced in a season. Add the player's runs scored to his runs-batted-in and subtract his home runs to get his runs produced.

A catcher, just because offense often is less important at that position, meets the standard if he has 90 runs produced.

A starting pitcher meets the standard if his innings pitched, minus his earned runs allowed, equals 100 or more.

Once you've counted the player's ``productive'' seasons, just subtract that number from his age on opening day and you have his Dorian Gray rating. Obviously, lower is better.

Example: Alex Rodriguez, with 112 runs, 106 RBI and 36 homers for the Yankees in 2004, had 182 runs produced. That's the ninth time he's had 150 or more.

Rodriguez is 29. Take nine away from 29. Rodriguez rates a youthful 20 - the best in the game right now.

Example: Sabathia pitched 188 innings and gave up 86 earned runs for Cleveland in 2004. The difference is 102. It was his third time over 100 for the 24-year-old. His 21 ties Willis for the best among pitchers.

For players with birthdays in the early-season months of April, May and June, we add half a year to their scores.

Example: Maddux, with 17 ``productive'' seasons, is 38 but turns 39 April 14. He rates a spry 21 1/2.

A player whose skills or health are in decline will find himself aging rapidly in the Dorian Gray Index. Example: Craig Biggio, sub-150 in four of the past five years, has gone from a prime 28 to a wrinkled 32.

The DGI identifies two kinds of players who are likeliest to produce this year - young players who have produced at least once, and older players who have avoided injuries and other ravages of age to continue to consistently produce.

If you're a Dodgers fan looking to the future, would you rather have Beltre (who rates a 24 1/2) or Green (25), both departed - or Drew (28), signed this winter?

DGI gives its highest ratings among L.A. hitters and starting pitchers to Guerrero (23) and Bartolo Colon (25) of the Angels, and Jeff Weaver (24) and Brad Penny (24 1/2). It's lukewarm about Jeff Kent (29) and Derek Lowe (29 1/2). It's not projecting a long future for Paul Byrd (33) and Jose Valentin (33).

It's playing wait-and-see on Chone Figgins, Cesar Izturis and Milton Bradley, who haven't recorded 150 runs produced yet and can't be rated.

Make of this what you want. Like most stats, DGI measures only one thing. It doesn't tell you if a man is a great fielder or a terror in the clubhouse or a victim of a weak lineup. It doesn't tell you how far above that ``productive'' standard he lands. Barry Bonds, despite his awesome numbers lately, rates a less-than-super 26 because of some low-RBI seasons early in his career.

But it can settle a few arguments - or start a few.

It's nice to know whether a guy feels young because it's Opening Day or feels young because he's still playing that way.

CAPTION(S):

box

Box:

YOUNG AT HEART