PRIMARY MAY RECONFIGURE GOVERNMENT SPECIAL ELECTION A FACTOR.

Byline: Harrison Sheppard Sacramento Bureau

SACRAMENTO - Barely more than a month after the special election, more than two dozen candidates already are ramping up for next June's primary, which is expected to be an expensive and hotly contested battle for eight major statewide offices.

With only three incumbents seeking re-election - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, schools Superintendent Jack O'Connell and Secretary of State Bruce McPherson - the races will reshape a broad swath of government.

And experts say the key to party power will be whether an embattled Schwarzenegger can regain favor among a disenchanted and heavily Democratic electorate and bring in other Republican candidates on his coattails in the November 2006 general election.

``For most of the Republicans running for office - if they are a challenger and not an incumbent - unless the Republican nominee for governor gets in the high 50s (percent), it's awfully difficult for them to win,'' said Allan Hoffenblum, a Republican political analyst.

Vying for the Democratic nod to try to unseat Schwarzenegger are state Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly.

Angelides has long criticized Schwarzenegger - even early in the administration, when the governor was wildly popular with voters - while Westly has more recently opposed the governor's reform efforts and other proposals.

Westly, a multimillionaire co-founder of eBay who has held public office for three years, portrays himself in his gubernatorial bid as a political outsider running against a lifelong insider.

``People do not want to see another career politician,'' Westly said. ``They want to see someone who's independent. They don't want to see an ideologue, whether it's on the left or right. They want to see someone who's focused on solving problems.''

But the outsider label may be a tough sell for Westly, who has raised about $18 million so far, $15 million from his own pocket, and who has been involved in Democratic politics for years, including serving on the Democratic National Committee.

Political analysts expect Angelides, the more liberal of the two, to do better in the primary, though Angelides - who has raised about $16 million - maintains his focus is not on partisan politics.

``It's not a matter of left and right,'' Angelides said. ``It's a matter of strength and conviction and commitment, and the toughness to stand up to Arnold Schwarzenegger when he's wrong for the state of California.''

For the Schwarzenegger administration's part, advisers simply hope June's primary battle is bruising enough that it leaves a weakened winner to face Schwarzenegger.

They say Schwarzenegger is unlikely to use a tactic of former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, who aired ads during the 2002 GOP primary attacking Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan - a move that helped nominate Bill Simon, a candidate Davis saw as the weaker opponent.

And while Democrats showed a unified front during Schwarzenegger's special election - forming a tight coalition of labor groups and significantly outspending the governor - advisers say the effort also strained resources and they expect the unity will fade.

``Some of the deep fissures within labor are actually still there,'' said Rob Stutzman, the governor's communications director, who is expected to join the re-election campaign. ``I think a bruising Democratic primary will do a lot to disunify that party over the next six months.''

Still, the governor's camp also has challenges to overcome as Schwarzenegger seeks to recover from low voter approval ratings, a stinging defeat of his reform efforts in the special election, and repairing strained relations with legislators.

Signaling a shift to a more moderate stance, the governor has hired Democrat Susan Kennedy as his chief of staff and has so far raised about $4 million in his gubernatorial account.

But while some statewide office seekers may hope a renewed Schwarzenegger could help build momentum for their own efforts, some analysts say it will be tricky for Schwarzenegger to get too involved.

In the last election, Schwarzenegger failed to add any Republican seats to the Legislature and as a moderate, he has to be careful not to tie himself to conservative candidates, said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the University of Southern California.

``My guess is he's going to stay away from anointing candidates, having been burned once,'' Jeffe said. ``He's not stupid. If he wants to run for the center, he can't embrace a set of candidates against the conservative wing or one that comes from the conservative wing. That's politically dicey whichever way he goes.''

And some of those ``down-ticket'' candidates may also have a harder time raising money because donors had to dig deep for last month's unplanned special election, where overall spending exceeded $250 million.

``Coming off one of the most expensive elections in history, you have donor fatigue,'' said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and the Media at California State University, Sacramento.

``While people have been raising money and have war chests, down-ticket they're not as well-funded as they should be to go into a statewide primary.''

``Everybody donated to the special election. So lieutenant governor and secretary of state and insurance commissioner races, particularly in the Democratic Party, took a back seat to union-dominated measures. Now they have to play catch up at a time when people are tired.''

Harrison Sheppard, [phone]

harrison.sheppard(at)dailynews.com

OFF TO THE RACES

The official filing deadline for the June 6 election primary is still three months away, but dozens of major candidates already have filed statements of intent to run. Among the key races and candidates:

GOVERNOR

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

State Treasurer Phil Angelides (D)

State Controller Steve Westly (D)

LT. GOVERNOR

Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks

State Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi (D)

Sen. Jackie Speier, D-Hillsborough

Sen. Liz Figueroa, D-Sunol

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown (D)

L.A. City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo (D)

Sen. Chuck Poochigian, R-Fresno

TREASURER

Attorney General Bill Lockyer (D)

Assemblyman Keith Richman, R-Northridge

CONTROLLER

Sen. Abel Maldonado, R-San Luis Obispo

Tony Strickland, former Republican assemblyman from Ventura County

Sen. Joe Dunn, D-Garden Grove

Assemblyman Dario Frommer, D-Glendale

SECRETARY OF STATE

Bruce McPherson (R) secretary of state

Sen. Deborah Ortiz, D-Sacramento

Sen. Debra Bowen, D-Marina del Rey

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

Cruz Bustamante (D) lieutenant governor

Gary Mendoza (R) businessman

Phil Kurzner (R) physician

Steve Poizner (R) businessman

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

(A nonpartisan post)

Jack O'Connell, superintendent of public instruction

SOURCES: California Secretary of State, individual campaigns

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OFF TO THE RACES (see text)