PREPARING FOR THE REALLY BIG ONE QUAKE CONFERENCE HEARS WARNING; READINESS URGED.

Byline: BRENT HOPKINS Staff Writer

When the quake begins, the Earth will rub against itself and shudder, shooting powerful, destructive waves speeding toward Los Angeles at two miles per second.

It will trace a jagged scar through the landscape from Lancaster to the Salton Sea, cracking freeways and knocking down homes. Gas mains will rip open, exposing their flammable cargo to sparking power lines. The temblor, a stunning 7.9 on the Richter Scale, will kill hundreds and wound thousands. Damage will climb as high as $150 billion.

This isn't The Big One. It is, scientifically speaking, The Really Big One. Though the disaster has not occurred yet, scientists and government officials warned Tuesday it most certainly will.

``Have we scared you yet? That's our intent today,'' said California Seismic Safety Commissioner Lucy Jones, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. ``We're not just doing this to scare you. We're doing this to change your behavior.''

She spoke Tuesday at a two-day conference at the University of Southern California, an event that brought together scientists, public policymakers and first responders to discuss how to prepare for the next major earthquake. Pegged on the 150th anniversary of the Fort Tejon quake, the last major rupture of the southern San Andreas Fault, the conference had dire warnings for a population deemed woefully unprepared for catastrophe.

Had the 1857 quake occurred today, consultant group Risk Management Solutions estimates the grim scenario described above would unfold quickly across Southern California. After four minutes of shaking, the landscape would settle into a mangled mess, with 150 dead and 5,000 injured. In comparison, the 1994 Northridge Quake, a much smaller 6.7 magnitude, killed 57, injured 12,000 and inflicted $40 billion worth of damage.

Time and again, speakers invoked Hurricane Katrina, reminding the populace not to just sit back and hope for the best.

``We've learned from Katrina that you can't expect the government to come rescue you,'' said Ellis Stanley, general manager of the Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Department. ``When the Really Big One happens, we will be isolated.''

So his agency and others, operating as the Earthquake Country Alliance, are encouraging people to visit its DareToPrepare.org Web site to obtain tips on how to secure homes and furniture and prepare disaster kits with emergency supplies. In addition to stockpiling water and essential medication, they recommend having at least a week's supply of food on hand in case the local grocer turns into rubble.

To ram the point home, the conference organizers brought out both the rhetorical skills of actor Edward James Olmos and a machine billed as the world's largest earthquake simulator. Olmos, spokesman for the Dare to Prepare campaign, passionately recounted his harrowing experiences in the 1971 Sylmar Quake and called upon all Californians to prepare for the inevitable.

He then climbed into the simulator, which rattled like a roller coaster and jostled its riders as it dislodged fake furniture. It provided a simultaneously comic and frightening counterpoint to the sobering statistics presented during the conference.

``Remember duck, cover and hold? Where we got down because we thought the bomb was coming?'' Jones said. ``We need to do that again. The terrorists and the bomb are debatable, but the earthquake is not.''

brent.hopkins(at)dailynews.com

[phone]

WHAT TO DO

Visit DareToPrepare.org for recommendations on preparing for the next earthquake, including:

Secure your space: Make sure your home has the proper structural support to reduce quake damage and use braces and tethers to keep furniture from falling.

Pack a kit: Fill up three bags -- one for home, one for work, one for the car -- with medication, a first-aid kit, bottled water and food.

Plan ahead: Discuss with friends and relatives where to meet and what to do before the windows start rattling. Have escape routes planned and emergency contacts written down in advance.

CAPTION(S):

box, map

Box:

WHAT TO DO

Map:

San Andreas Fault

Gregg Miller/Staff Artist