PREPARE FOR THE POKEMON INVASION; JAPANESE FILM ONE OF TWO ANIMATED MOVIES COMING TO U.S. THIS FALL.

Byline: Dave McNary Staff Writer

If you haven't hung around 8-year-old boys lately, you probably don't know the next wave of globalization has already arrived in the form of Pikachu, Raichu and 149 other animated Pokemon characters.

Pokemon - the Japanese name for ``pocket monster'' - is becoming more prominent each day in the United States with a mind-boggling array of video games, trading cards, clothing and toys along with its own TV show. And in a reversal of the usual practice of American hit films going to foreign markets, a made-in-Japan Pokemon movie will arrive at U.S. multiplexes Nov. 12.

Actually, ``Pokemon'' won't be the first Japanese animated movie to show up in theaters this fall. ``Princess Mononoke,'' Japan's second-highest grosser of all time after ``Titanic,'' will open in the 20 biggest U.S. markets Oct. 29. But it's ``Pokemon'' that has emerged as a potential sleeper hit.

``Pokemon is the only thing kids are talking about these days,'' said Merrill Lynch analyst Andrew Slaban. ``The movie could do very well.''

``Pokemon the Movie: Mewtwo Strikes Back,'' made by Shogakukan Productions Co., was the fourth-highest grosser in Japan last year. Warner Bros. has renamed it ``Pokemon: The First Movie'' for its U.S. release and recently began a low-key ad campaign with trailers and lobby posters. A sequel for next summer is already in the works.

More impressively, the studio assigned ``Pokemon'' a valuable opening date - one where the target audience of kids 5 to 13 are still in school but on the verge of having vacation time around Thanksgiving and the winter holidays. What's especially bold about Warner's move is that the slot is a mere dozen days before Disney debuts its expected holiday season blockbuster, ``Toy Story 2.''

But trackers believe the craze over Pokemon - which mostly resemble plush-toy versions of cats, hamsters and dogs - will be even hotter at that point. ``I suspect that Pokemon has not yet crested in this country,'' said Martin Brochstein, editor of the Licensing Letter. ``It's been big, but the real thrust of merchandise has only started to hit shelves.''

Pokemon is already a certifiable marketing bonanza. As children return to school this month, rest assured they will be wearing Pokemon T-shirts and carrying Pokemon trading cards, toys, comic books and Game Boy videos. Some schools already have barred Pokemon cards from campuses as being too much of a distraction.

``We as adults may be a little naive about the true extent that U.S. kids nowadays have gravitated to Japanese culture,'' asserted entertainment analyst Kevin Skislock of Laguna Research Partners. ``Japanese-sourced entertainment product is a much bigger part of the lives of kids under 16 than people over 16 realize.''

For those wondering what the fuss is about, here are the facts:

The Pokemon craze is 4 years old in Japan and still going strong. Need proof? Three All Nippon Airways jumbo jets are decorated with Pokemon characters.

Nintendo Co., which owns the property, already has sold more than 4 million Pokemon-based games in this country.

New York-based 4 Kids Entertainment, the exclusive licensing agent for Nintendo in countries outside Japan, has signed 90 licensing deals in this country.

The ``Pokemon'' TV show became the top-rated syndicated children's program within a few months of its launch; it now is the highest-rated series for kids on Saturday mornings.

The WB Network will become the exclusive broadcaster of ``Pokemon'' in U.S. markets with the fall season and plans to telecast a dozen new episodes per week.

The emerging consensus: the movie could be a significant hit for boys between the ages of 3 and 13, an audience that can be decidedly powerful. Many of the repeat customers for ``Star Wars: Episode 1'' were from that demographic.

``There's always one thing that kids have to have and right now that's Pokemon,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, president of the Reel Source forecasting service. ``This film definitely has a lot of potential and could do $60 million domestically, which would be great for a dubbed movie. If everything breaks right for it and it's marketed well, I could see it doing maybe $100 million at the outside.''

Does all this mean Disney should be worried about ``Pokemon'' cutting into its audience for ``Toy Story 2''? No way, analysts say.

``Just because the market is competitive, that doesn't mean both movies won't do well,'' Slaban said. `` `Toy Story 2' is going to be phenomenal. People are already educated about it and the toy industry is going to give it excellent support.''

Prudential Securities analyst Katherine Styponias noted the overall market for animated movies has grown stronger in recent years. She pointed out that four animated films - ``Antz,'' ``Rugrats,'' ``A Bug's Life'' and ``Prince of Egypt'' - upset conventional wisdom that the market could absorb only one such film per season. They drew most of their combined domestic gross of nearly $450 million in the last three months of '98.

``I don't think `Pokemon' will affect `Toy Story 2,' '' Styponias said. ``Last year's crowded schedule showed it's not a mutually exclusive game. There's definitely room for more than one during the holiday season.''

For Warner, success with ``Pokemon'' would represent a measure of redemption after losing out on the movie animation boom with ``The Iron Giant,'' ``The King and I'' and ``Quest for Camelot.''

Thus far, ``Pokemon'' has not yet generated a massive prerelease publicity campaign.

``If the concept is fresh and the awareness is high, there's no reason to overhype it,'' Bucksbaum said. ``That's why `Star Wars' was so successful - they didn't throw it down people's throats.''

Joseph Garrity, chief financial officer for New York-based licensor 4 Kids, promised the marketing push for Pokemon goods still has plenty of gas in the tank. ``The licensing program is going to be very extensive leading up to the opening of the movie.''

Furthermore, aside from seeing their wallets deflated, adults have little to complain about when it comes to Pokemon. The actual game calls for players to act as ``Pokemon trainers'' of the individual characters with rules much like the old rock-scissors-paper game.

``What Pokemon represents is very significant, because Japanese culture revolves around cooperation and common goals,'' Skislock said. ``It also shows how entertainment product is much more accessible globally.''

As for ``Princess Mononoke,'' the film is a much more iffy proposition even though it carries impressive credentials. It won Japan's Academy Prize for the best film of 1997 and sparked a boom in that nation's animation business. But success overseas won't mean much to American audiences.

First off, ``Princess Mononoke'' doesn't offer the feel-good comedy-and-music that's the hallmark of U.S. animated films; instead, it's an epic drama. The story, set in 14th century Japan, revolves around two warring clans and the gods of the forest with the title character raised by wolves; she wears animal skins and a necklace of bones with war paint smeared on her face.

Additionally, ``Princess Mononoke'' runs 133 minutes, far longer than any mainstream animated film. Miramax, Disney's specialized films distributor, has produced a dubbed version with voices from Billy Crudup, Minnie Driver, Claire Danes, Billy Bob Thornton and Gillian Anderson.

`` `Princess Mononoke' will be more of an art-house film and only appeal to an older audience,'' Bucksbaum predicted.

On the plus side, ``Princess Mononoke'' can't be written off entirely. If ``The Blair Witch Project'' can gross $130 million domestically, it's not completely far-fetched to conceive of the novelty of Hayao Miyazaki's animation becoming the Next Hip Thing.

And then there's the Miramax factor: The distributor certainly knows how to turn critically acclaimed movies - ``The Crying Game,'' ``Pulp Fiction,'' ``Il Postino'' and ``Life Is Beautiful,'' to name four - into commercial successes.

``Globalization and ease of entry of nontraditional product have started becoming very important in the entertainment business,'' Skislock said. ``There is a huge opportunity in filmed entertainment today for creative product like `Blair Witch.' The scepter of power used to be capital; it's going to shift toward creativity because the product is more accessible globally.''

For now, Miramax is taking a low-key approach. ``It could be an art-house breakout hit, but by no means could we open this at 2,000 theaters nationwide,'' said Mark Gill, president of Miramax's Los Angeles office. ``It's not as accessible as `Blair Witch.' ''

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Photo: (1--2--Color) no caption (Pokemon cartoons)