POST-QUAKE AID MAY GET A JUMP-START COMPUTER ABLE TO QUICKLY SCOPE HARDEST-HIT AREAS.

Byline: Susan Abram Staff Writer

Twelve years after a pre-dawn 6.7-magnitude earthquake devastated the San Fernando Valley, scientists say they have developed new technologies that can get help to victims faster but are still a long away from being able to predict the Big One.

A $6 million supercomputer unveiled in November at Caltech can analyze the destructive force of an earthquake less than an hour after a temblor strikes - allowing authorities to pinpoint the hardest-hit areas so they can more quickly deploy rescue teams to the most needy victims.

``What this will do is tell us the scope of the devastation,'' said Jeroen Tromp, a professor of geophysics and the mastermind behind the supercomputer, which fills a 20-foot-by-80-foot room at California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

``We've come a long way in terms of quantitatively looking at what can happen.''

Authorities say the technology would have helped in the hours after the Northridge Earthquake hit at 4:31 a.m. Jan. 17, 1994. The quake left 57 people dead, 12,000 injured and thousands homeless. With damage estimated at more than $40 billion, it is the costliest earthquake

in U.S. history.

``We would have made different decisions,'' with regard to how first-responders were deployed, Tromp said.

With 2,000 processors connected with miles of optic fiber, the computer allows scientists to unlock the mysteries of an earthquake 40 minutes after it strikes - not just in Southern California, but anywhere in the world.

It scans the earth's interior and tracks seismic waves with a clearer resolution. Using Global Positioning System technology, it can determine if specific skyscrapers were able to withstand certain quakes and can even create animated images that show where aftershocks might occur.

Emergency response agencies say any form of technology that can assess damage is helpful, but as the nation saw during Hurricane Katrina, there are limits to what computers and satellite technology can do.

Scientists now are able to use GPS technology and InSAR, or Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, to identify areas of stress and better track what happens before, during and after an earthquake.

But there are still drawbacks.

``Naturally, we always welcome technology that enhances our abilities,'' said Greg Resnick, spokesman for California's Department of Emergency Services. ``But there's always going to be a period of time that you know something's happened, but the severity of the damage and the location isn't known to first-responders on the state and federal levels.''

Also, seismology experts worry about delays in retrofitting buildings and implementing other preventive measures due to a lack of funding and the knowledge gap between scientists and government officials.

Lucy Jones, the U.S. Geological Survey scientist in charge in Southern California, said all the technology in the world does little unless seismologists, geologists, engineers and emergency management teams communicate with each other about the strengths and weaknesses of building codes, for example.

Jones said that while the Northridge Earthquake was devastating, it could have been worse. The temblor hit before dawn on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so office buildings and shopping centers - where damage was great - were empty and freeways had little traffic.

Jones said the government needs to awaken to other scenarios.

``It's obvious to everyone that a real earthquake in L.A. is going to be a Katrina-type disaster,'' Jones said. ``It can turn into a catastrophe during a Santa Ana wind-type condition, or an El Nio year.''

Last summer, seismic researchers warned that the worst earthquake damage the nation could see - with up to 18,000 fatalities and $252 billion in damage - could come from a magnitude-7.5 temblor that could occur on a fault under downtown Los Angeles.

When the Puente Hills fault ruptures, they say, its shaking would be far more severe than the Northridge Earthquake.

In her work, Jones is often asked about the Big One, the feared magnitude-8.0 or greater quake expected to hit Southern California. It could strike in 200 years, or 10,000 years, she often says. But there's an upside to living in earthquake country, Jones said.

``If we didn't have earthquakes, we wouldn't have the mountains, we wouldn't have clouds over mountains,'' she said. ``It's the earthquakes that make what's wonderful about California. We don't want to give that up.''

Susan Abram, [phone]

susan.abram(at)dailynews.com

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2 photos

Photo:

(1 -- 2 -- color) Above, an animated model created by Caltech's supercomputer shows shock waves and reverberations from a hypothetical quake in the L.A. Basin. Left, geophysics professor Jeroen Tromp is mastermind of Caltech's $6 million supercomputer that can more accurately pinpoint the hardest-hit areas of a devastating earthquake.

Tom Mendoza/Staff Photographer