POPULATION MAY TRIPLE GROWTH PREDICTED FOR 2030 CONCERNS LOCAL OFFICIALS, SPURS PLANNING.

Byline: Nicholas Grudin Staff Writer

SANTA CLARITA - Regional analysts are predicting that the population in the sprawling Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys could triple to 1.75 million by 2030.

Local and county officials, doubtful of the region's ability to handle such a dramatic boom, will meet Wednesday with analysts from the Southern California Association of Governments to discuss the projections.

As part of a new method of population forecasting called Growth Visioning, SCAG has prepared a range of scenarios - predicting between 115 percent and 240 percent growth in northern Los Angeles County - that depend on potential improvements to transportation infrastructure, from airport expansion to freeway construction.

``We need to face up to the reality of the growth that this region is going to incur,'' said Jeff Lustgarten, a spokesman for SCAG. ``We can clearly say that north L.A. County and the Inland Empire are the two areas in Southern California expected to see the highest amount of growth.''

SCAG, a regional association of officials from six Southland counties, is conducting a $1.3 million Southern California Compass study that ultimately will provide a road map for development and be supported through incentives that could become state law.

According to March trend projections, Southern California's population - excluding San Diego County - will grow by about 6 million in the next 25 years, Lustgarten said. About 75 percent of that growth will come from reproduction as opposed to immigration, Lustgarten said.

Northern Los Angeles County will account for a large portion of that growth.

The Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys - including the cities of Santa Clarita, Palmdale and Lancaster, as well as the Gorman area - are currently home to about 512,000 people.

By SCAG's predictions, that figure will balloon to between 1.1 million and 1.75 million by 2030.

County officials do not believe that the valleys can sustain that influx in such a relatively short period of time.

``This is an extraordinary number - we're talking about big changes in an area that, given the current infrastructure, could not absorb the growth,'' said Andy Malakates, a regional planning director for Los Angeles County. ``Unless we have some new and revolutionary ideas about how public services are going to be funded, it just sounds amazing.''

Malakates believes that the infrastructure developments necessary to sustain such population - from parks to water resources to transportation - would have to have started years ago.

``It's premature to make these kinds of dire predictions,'' Malakates said.

Santa Clarita planners also question the scope of the SCAG forecasts, and they worry that, if the projection stands, it could prove a self-fulfilling prophecy because of SCAG's influence over state legislation, which can set housing expectations for jurisdictions.

According to Jeff Lambert, director of planning in Santa Clarita, the transportation and economic infrastructure of the area could not support such a dramatic population increase.

``My concern is the impact on our community, and our transportation network, should that growth occur,'' Lambert said. ``The bottom line is that SCAG is advocating a growth scenario that puts a lot of growth in the high desert - the 14 freeway is going to become a nightmare.''

Laurie Lile, Palmdale's director of planning, also said that the SCAG numbers appeared to be inflated.

But Lustgarten contends that, with certain changes to the transportation infrastructure of the region, many of the local concerns would disappear.

Such changes include the expansion of the Palmdale Airport, a high-speed rail connection from the Antelope Valley into Los Angeles and improvements to regional freeways, all of which Lustgarten says could happen in the next 25 years.

``There cannot be disagreement on the fact that the growth is coming - it's a question of what we do now in terms of planning for it,'' Lustgarten said. ``The more extreme predictions assume significant transportation infrastructure improvements.''

According to Lustgarten, the concerns of Lambert and others are among the reasons for Wednesday's meeting.

``We want feedback from elected officials, communities and from the general public,'' Lustgarten said.

The Growth Visioning workshops - which will be held throughout Southern California - mark the first time that SCAG has prepared such a comprehensive set of projections, Lustgarten said.

Wednesday's Growth Visioning workshop will be held at the Palmdale Holiday Inn from 5:30 to 9:30 p.m.

A similar meeting discussing growth in the San Fernando Valley will be held at the same time at California State University, Northridge.

For information on SCAG's Growth Visioning program, visit www.socalcompass.org on the Web.