POLITICS TRUMPS REFORM IMMIGRATION MEASURE PLACED ON HOLD BY GOP.

Byline: LISA FRIEDMAN Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON -- Republican leaders have decided to stick with a hard-line stance on immigration, sucking the wind out of prospects for major reform before Election Day.

After inching toward a compromise on a Senate bill that would offer a long-term path to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants, House GOP leaders have reversed course in recent days.

They watched how Republican Brian Bilbray narrowly defeated Democrat Francine Busby in the June 6 election for the 50th Congressional District seat after calling for construction of a fence along the U.S.-Mexico border. And they began weighing their own popularity.

``It's hardened sentiment among House Republicans that they should insist on a border-enforcement-only bill,'' said Thomas Mann, congressional scholar at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, D.C.

``It reinforces their view that even though polls worded a certain way produce a public preference for a Bush-like bill with multiple features, the intensity is on the side of border security and that they'd be better off moving in that direction.''

University of Southern California political scientist Sherry Bebitch Jeffe sees a similar turnaround.

``Republicans have decided that there is a message coming out of Bilbray, that they can use immigration as an issue on which to ride to victory.''

Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., who has led the movement for a tough immigration bill in the House and welcomed Bilbray to his Immigration Reform Caucus, called the campaign a ``contributing factor'' in House Speaker Dennis Hastert's decision to block movement on the immigration bill.

Hastert called for more hearings on the Senate measure, which could stall it indefinitely.

``It really did (put some) steel in a few spines around here,'' Tancredo said of the Bilbray race.

``I get the impression that there isn't a single member of the House Republican Conference who doesn't realize that immigration was the defining issue, and that we would have lost the race had it not been for the fact that he was able to grab the high ground on it,'' he said.

Agreed Rep. David Dreier, R-Glendora, ``It would be safe to say that the outcome of the Bilbray race was a reaffirmation of the correctness of the House position on security of our borders.

``That race underscored our strong commitment to making sure that we focus on border security.''

Democrats, meanwhile, said they believe anti-immigration hard-liners are overstating the importance of the immigration issue in the 50th District race, which filled the seat of disgraced former Rep. Randy ``Duke'' Cunningham.

``I don't think anyone should read too much into an election where the national Republican Party had to spend $5 million to squeeze out a narrow victory. They didn't break 50 percent in a district that usually elects Republicans by double-digit margins. That is hardly a mandate,'' said Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Lakewood.

Added Angela Kelley, deputy director of the National Immigration Forum, ``the restrictionists are seeing in it what they want to see.''

Yet lawmakers from both parties agreed that the prospects for passing any immigration reform bill into law this year are dimming quickly.

If nothing passes, Mann said, it could become a liability for Republicans.

``You will have disappointed people on both sides,'' he said. ``The border security people will be angry that a bill wasn't passed, and Latinos and others will be angry at what Republicans tried to do.''

Tancredo disagreed.

``It's much easier to go home and defend the House position and attack the Senate position than it is to try to explain some compromise,'' he said.

Bilbray, for his part, said he also isn't worried about the prospect of doing nothing.

His race, he said, ``reinforced the position that the public is much more behind the House approach than the Senate approach.''

``Better nothing than doing the wrong thing,'' he said.

lisa.friedman(at)langnews.com

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