PERU: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION GOES TO RUNOFF.

Peruvians must wait another six weeks to know who their next president will be. Peru's nearly 15 million voters failed on April 8 to give any of the eight presidential candidates the necessary 50% plus one of the valid votes. As expected, Alejandro Toledo finished in first place, but former President Alan Garcia (1985-1990) upset Lourdes Flores Nano to take the second-place spot and ensure his participation in the runoff set for May 20.

Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) figures gave Toledo of Peru Posible 36.5% of the vote; Garcia of the Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (Partido Aprista Peruana, APRA) took 25.9%; Lourdes Flores Nano of Unidad Nacional finished third with 24.2%.

The interim government of Valentin Paniagua will hand over power on July 28.

International observers as well as national election monitors Transparencia praised the elections as fair. That was a marked change from the 2000 elections, which were widely seen as fraudulent and which led to Fujimori's downfall amid corruption scandals surrounding spy chief Vladimiro Montesinos (see NotiSur, 2000-06-09, 2000-10-06).

Toledo forced into runoff

Early in the race, Toledo was expected to win easily after helping bring about Fujimori's ouster last year. But the 55-year-old US-educated economist, who is of Indian ancestry and who campaigned on racial themes, was damaged in recent weeks by reports that he used cocaine and fathered an illegitimate daughter--charges he denied. He was also hurt by his refusal to debate his opponents.

"You know nothing in my life was ever easy for me," said the former shoeshine boy after the voting. Toledo said the reports that he fathered a daughter but refused to recognize her and tested positive for cocaine in 1998 were part of a smear campaign by Peru's white elite to stop a "cholo"--as Peru's mixed-race majority is known--from being elected.

Garcia makes impressive comeback

Garcia's last-minute surge to edge past Flores was the big surprise of the election. When the 51-year-old Garcia returned to Peru in January after nine years exile in Colombia, few expected that he could stage a political comeback. The Fujimori government had charged Garcia with corruption, including taking US$1 million in bribes. The charges, which Garcia denied, were later dropped.

Garcia campaigned on populist themes stressing job creation and government subsidies.

"When I came back 60 days ago, people thought it impossible that I would make it to the second round," Garcia said shortly after the polls closed.

While polls show that most Peruvians expect Toledo to become their next president, Garcia, who did far better than anyone expected with promises of interest-rate cuts and aid for the agriculture sector, could pull another surprise.

But Garcia's strong showing is likely to encounter concern in Peru's financial markets, said Hugo Cabieses, an economist with the Peruvian Social Studies Center. "I think in the next month and a half investors will stay on the sideline."

Flores, a 41-year-old lawyer and the most conservative of the top three candidates, was hurt by an off-the-cuff racist remark made by her father in the last weeks of the campaign. Opponents also charged that her campaign staff included members of the ultraconservative Catholic organization Opus Dei. She said she and her supporters would carefully weigh whether to support Toledo or Garcia in the runoff.

Supporters of former President Alberto Fujimori (1990- 2000) were the big losers in the election. The candidate most identified with the former president, former economy minister Carlos Bolona of Solucion Popular, received only 1.7% of the vote.

No party will have clear majority in Congress

No party won an outright majority in Peru's 120-member national Congress, so the political groups will be forced to negotiate. This year the country was divided into electoral districts, and for the first time voters chose lawmakers from their districts instead of electing at large. Peru's 24 departments and the constitutional province of Callao were assigned a number of congressional seats proportional to their population.

Still unofficial returns indicate that Toledo's Peru Posible party won 41 seats; APRA, 29; and Unidad Nacional, 15. The Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM) will have 12 representatives, Somos Peru and Union por el Peru, six each, with several smaller political forces each winning between one and four seats.

Peru's electoral system gives an advantage to the larger parties and alliances, almost eliminating the smallest ones. [Sources: Notimex, The Miami Herald, 04/09/01; Inter Press Service, 04/08/01, 04/10/01; Reuters, The New York Times, 04/09/01, 04/11/01; CNN, Spanish news service EFE, Xinhua, 04/11/01; Latinamerica Press (Lima), 04/16/01]