PAX AMERICANA - Part 1 - Overview.

Without openly saying so, the US wants to recreate the Middle East in its own image, or at least as close to its image as possible - i.e. with Western-style democratic structures, open economies, and pluralistic societies, in the same way that it transformed Japan after World War II. This is the thrust of the National Security Strategy detailed in a plan released on Sept. 20, 2002. The key elements of this strategy, as outlined by President Bush, is that the US will:

- "Champion aspirations for human dignity"; the underlying implication is that the US will promote human rights in the region, which includes the rights to freedom of thought and expression which are widely curtailed in the region. In practice, this could mean support for opposition movements that the US regards as being of a democratic orientation.

- "Strengthen alliances to defeat global terrorism and work to prevent attacks against us and our friends"; both friends and opponents of the US in the region would be concerned by the implications. The idea that Washington will want to further "strengthen alliances" would worry its close Arab allies, many of whom have already provided base facilities and expanded security co-operation since the World Trade Centre (WTC)/Pentagon attacks. Further enhancement of ties in the current environment would increase domestic tensions. For opponents of the US, it means increased pressure from all sides, with each country that is not regarded as an American ally worried that it will be the next on the target list after Iraq.

- "Work with others to defuse regional conflicts"; applicable to the Arab-Israeli conflict for the Middle East region, this approach is already underway, although without any positive results so far. The US is working within the so-called "Quartet" - which also includes Russia, the EU and the UN - to try and break the current deadlock between the Israelis and the Palestinians. On the other hand, the Bush administration has made it clear that "working with others" is primarily for the enhanced legitimacy this implies. On matters it considers to be of importance, the US has demonstrated that it will act unilaterally if necessary.

- "Prevent our enemies from threatening us, our allies, and our friends, with weapons of mass destruction"; ever since the WTC attacks, the US has focused intensely on this issue. Its main strategic concern is that Al Qaida, or a similar entity, may acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and use it on the American mainland, or on its interests overseas, or against its key allies. In preparing for an invasion of Iraq, the main justification being offered by US diplomats is that Iraq has not disclosed its WMD programme fully and that it is thus refusing to follow the disarmament path set by the UN after Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait in August 1990. American officials have pointed out that if they do not remove the Iraqi regime from power now, it will develop WMD and will be far more difficult to confront years from now. Critics note, however, that a similar logic does seem to apply in the case of North Korea, where Washington prefers the dialogue option.

- "Ignite a new era of global economic growth through free markets and free trade"; centralised economies in the Middle East, which have been reforming themselves over the last decade under pressure from the IMF and the World Bank, are likely to face additional pressures to open up and give greater access to American businesses. While this will have its positive and negative repercussions for the local economies, cumulatively it will have the effect of strengthening Pax Americana across the region. On the positive side, it could imply a "Marshall Plan" for parts of the Arab World likely to be worst affected by the harder aspects of Pax Americana.

- "Expand the circle of development by opening societies and building the infrastructure of democracy"; this was an idea that had taken root in the 1990s under the Clinton administrations. The spreading of democracy was facilitated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which meant that there was no real opposition to the transplantation of "the American dream" in other parts of the world. The Clinton administration had fostered the idea of a Community of Democracies which would act together to spread the value system into parts of the world where political and other freedoms did not exist. The Bush administration seems intent on taking it a step further by building the "infrastructure of democracy". In practice, it is not clear what this would mean apart from the fact that the US would help set up the institutions of democracy in other countries. But whether such institutions can take hold in non-Western societies unaccustomed to individual rights, remains to be seen. It is unclear whether the infrastructure of democracy can take root without first "opening societies" to accept and internalise external socio-cultural influences, and this will be no easy task in the Middle East where Islam is regarded as the final word on how to live.

Much will depend on the future political environment in the US. But central aspects of the "hard" Pax Americana are being set in place by the neo-conservative ideologues who emerged in strength after the WTC/Pentagon attacks. There is a strong thrust from the current administration for changes in the Middle East that, if implemented, could have serious destabilising effects on most of the regimes in the area - whether they are considered "rogues", "states of concern" or allies.

The hawkish neo-conservative ideologues who are setting the agenda for changes this administration want to see in the region are putting in place mechanisms - like additional military bases, expanded intelligence and security co-operation, as well as the powerful Office for Homeland Security - that will continue to both influence and implement US policies in the region, whether or not Bush secures a second presidential term.

Ironically, the thinking behind the hard Pax Americana, and indeed the National Security Strategy of the US outlined on September 2002, was first expressed one year before the September 2001 WTC attacks, i.e. in a report titled "Project for the New American Century" released in September 2000. This report stated: "At no time in history has the international security order been as conducive to American interests and ideals... The challenge of this coming century is to preserve and enhance this 'American peace'", in other words Pax Americana.

The people behind the report now hold key positions in the Bush administration. They include Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz seen as the chief ideologue; Undersecretary of State John Bolton, a hawk who has defended various elements in numerous public fora; Stephen Cambone, chief of the Pentagon's Office of Program, Analysis and Evaluation; Eliot Cohen and Devon Cross, members of the Defense Policy Board which advises Rumsfeld; I. Lewis Libby, chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney; and Dov Zakheim, who is comptroller for the Defense Department.

President Bush stated the core message of this "Project for the New American Century" on June 2, 2002, during a speech at the prestigious West Point military academy. He said: "America has, and intends to keep, military strengths beyond challenge - thereby making the destabilizing arms races of other eras pointless - and limiting rivalries to trade and other pursuits of peace". The implication is that the US will not allow any power, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, to emerge as a competitive force strong enough to equal or come close to that of the US.