PALESTINIANS GO TO POLLS TODAY TO ELECT 1ST GOVERNMENT.

Byline: Serge Schmemann The New York Times

Early today, Palestinians are to begin voting for the first time for their own government, and practically the only thing that has not produced suspense or tension is the result.

With the Islamic opposition boycotting the election and Yasser Arafat certain of overwhelming approval, no one has any doubt that the leadership of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will remain in the stern hands of Arafat and his Fatah movement.

Yet the elections of a chairman for the Palestinian Authority and of the 88 members of the Palestinian Council have assumed dimensions far beyond specific leaders or legislators. On the broadest level, the vote is viewed as a referendum on Arafat's approach to peace with Israel, and the real measure will be the turnout.

About 1 million Palestinians are registered to vote, and recent polls show that 84 percent intend to cast ballots, though nobody expects the turnout to be that high, especially since rain is forecast. According to various analyses, 75 percent would amount to a smashing endorsement of the negotiating process.

Arafat himself is guaranteed a large victory over Samiha Khalil, a veteran left-wing campaigner who has gathered little support for her lonely challenge. After an initial round of appearances in West Bank cities as the Israelis withdrew, Arafat has not campaigned, and he spent Friday in Jordan.

Though the Fatah movement will get most council seats, the legislators will not necessarily represent a monolithic force. Many Fatah members are running against the official Fatah candidates and could form an internal opposition. In any case, the structure of the new government ensures Arafat effective control.

But to many commentators, the greatest political importance lies not in the outcome, but in the very fact of the elections.

"What will change in upcoming weeks is the character of the political process," wrote Dani Rubinstein, an analyst of Palestinian affairs for the daily Haaretz.

"Most Palestinian commentators who analyzed the electoral framework in recent days reached a similar conclusion: More than anything else, the elections are a crucial step toward the strengthening of Palestinian control, on the road toward the establishment of a sovereign state."

On another level, the voting in Jerusalem has turned into a clash of competing claims and myths between Palestinians who declare their ultimate goal to be a state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and Israelis who proclaim Jerusalem their indivisible and eternal capital.

The competition has brought some of the sharpest disputes between the Israelis and Palestinians. Though East Jerusalem has seven seats in the Council, Israel insists that those elected will not represent the city itself, now or ever.

That has led to complex maneuvering over details. Though the Palestinian election commission lists 80,000 voters in Jerusalem, Israel insists that most must vote outside Jerusalem.