PAKISTAN - The Long-Term Prospects.

For a long time, successive military rulers in Pakistan have tried to centralise political authority around themselves, in the hope of creating a stable regime. But each time such an experiment has been undertaken, the result has been more political uncertainty, hampering Pakistan's long term prospects.

His opponents predict that, even if Gen. Musharraf makes himself increasingly unassailable by continuing as head of the military as well as the president beyond this December, his ability to resurrect his government's increasingly controversial image would remain limited. Key officials in his camp have been urging him to retain firm control over the country.

Despite the military's repeated interventions in politics, a credible national leadership is yet to be found. But every time the military sponsored a politician, that individual failed to oversee the country's transition to an improved future and, in the process, also turned against the military elite. That was the case with Benazir Bhutto, with her father long before she first became prime minister, and with her rival Nawaz Sharif whom Gen. Musharraf toppled in 1999. (Sharif now is living in exile in Saudi Arabia).

The military establishment's repeated failure in giving Pakistan a new political direction reflects its fundamental handicap as an institution. Militaries geared to tackle challenges tied to security and national defence are not equipped to deal with intricate political realities. Just by continuing with absolute power beyond 2004, Musharraf would not oversee a discernible improvement in Pakistan's outlook.

Gen. Musharraf's choice of retaining his military and civil titles indefinitely will adversely affect Pakistan's global standing. This is irrespective of Washington's support to his position as a key ally in the war on terror.

Pakistan's international image is that, despite Musharraf's commitment to fight terror, it remains a hotbed for terrorists. This profile is aggravated further with its reputation as a country where elected politicians and military generals have taken turns in seizing control, only to the detriment of long term stability.

Any Pakistani dictator runs the risk of being exposed to a hardening of Washington's position on a range of issues central to the country's future. The issue of democracy is bound to come up as a major challenge. But Musharraf is surrounded by sycophantic aides who will never advise him to loosen up in favour of a democratic system.