Over Half Europeans Oppose Turkish Entry.

A European Commission poll of almost 30,000 people on July 18 showed that only 35% of respondents backed Turkey's EU membership, while 52% opposed it. As the EU and Turkey struggled to begin membership talks on schedule on Oct. 3, this followed French and Dutch No votes to ratification of the European constitution - widely seen as a blow to enlargement. The poll was done just before and after the referenda. In Austria, support was only 10%, with 80% opposition; in France support was 21%, with 70% opposition. Both countries have promised referenda on any membership deal with Turkey. At an EU foreign ministers' meeting on July 18, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said: "It would be suicidal for Europe to enlarge without taking account of people's concerns. That's why France and its people will have the last word on enlargement". France and Austria have issued a "general reserve" on the beginning of talks, which they will have to withdraw if the negotiations are to begin.

At the July 18 meeting Austria and Cyprus voiced their concerns about the start of talks. Several central European countries indicated they might try to link the negotiations with membership talks for Croatia, which are on hold. The EU's last such opinion poll, in 2002, had shown even less support for Turkey, at 32%. Since then Ankara has carried out a slew of human rights and legal reforms but, even so, opposition has hardened in France and Austria.

The EU is suffering from "enlargement fatigue" after taking in 10 new states in 2004. But Turkish entry will be at least a decade in the future by which time Ankara would have implemented many more democratic reforms. The Commission emphasises that general support for further enlargement of the EU has only edged down three percentage points since last year, to 50%, in spite of the political turbulence reflected by the referenda.

However, many leading European politicians say Turkey should abandon its longstanding dream of becoming a full EU member. Angela Merkel, the leader of Germany's opposition Christian Democrats and favoured in polls to succeed Gerhard Schroder as chancellor after September elections, says Turkey should instead be offered only a "privileged partnership", a position echoed by Nicolas Sarkozy, the French presidential hopeful. Ms Merkel on July 19 met Sarkozy and French President Jacques Chirac in Paris. Co-operation between Ms Merkel and the French government could be particularly important, since the fate of the negotiations is likely to be decided in late September, after the German elections but before any new government takes office.

In the short term, EU officials are nervously awaiting Turkey's signature of an agreement which is the last formal condition for the negotiations to begin. But the Financial Times on July 18 quoted Austria's Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser, who is deputy president of the eurogroup, comprising finance ministers of eurozone countries, as saying he would try to ensure that full membership did not become a realistic proposition for Turkey. He added: "Countries such as Croatia and other Balkan states have more of a right to be included soon in the EU than Turkey".

Grasser said the EU had to heed the lessons of the Dutch and French polls and listen to voters' concerns, warning: "It would be wrong to negotiate full...membership of the EU. If you were to ask the people 'are you for Turkish membership?', I'm convinced that you would get No as an answer".

Although he might yet be overruled by Chancellor Wolfgang Schussel, Grasser's comments were significant as all 25 EU states had to agree a "negotiating framework" - which sets out the principles, procedures and issues for the planned talks. Austria will insist that negotiations with Turkey should only begin once Croatia has started accession talks. Vienna is backed by Hungary and Slovakia, which has brought the issue up at the foreign ministers' meeting.

Asked whether Austria should agree the negotiating framework with Turkey, Grasser in an interview with the FT replied: "I will strive to communicate clearly to Turkey that we have every interest in economic and social stabilisation, but we cannot envisage full membership. I think, too, that the heads of state and government have recognised that the Turkey question has become too removed from the people". In December Austria backed "open ended" talks, but only after weeks of controversy. Grasser said that, at the time, Vienna had come under pressure to agree to talks from larger countries, such as Germany and the UK. He added: "In the past, negotiations have always led to actual full membership. I want to redefine that. We cannot get hopes up too high".