Outsourcing: researchers downplay impact of offshoring.

As the debate and handwringing over offshore outsourcing escalates, the fundamental question remains: What jobs are going to be left in the U.S. as big corporations continue shipping jobs to low-cost venues like India?

According to Linda Barrington, a labor labor economist, research director and special assistant to the president of The Conference Board, "We're not going to have this Malthusian thing where we collapse on ourselves just because jobs are going offshore." Actually, say both Barrington and Susan Meisinger, president and CEO of the Society for Human Resource Management, not all job categories are leaving, and new jobs will be created at home. It's just that our collective crystal ball doesn't yet see what they are--short of "new career paths for labor lawyers," Meisinger jokes. Both experts were panelists at a seminar this past winter in New York, "Trends That Affect HR, 2004," sponsored by Marsh Inc. and the Five O'Clock Club, a career counseling and outplacement organization.

Meisinger thinks jobs in the privacy arena will grow "as we're moving lots more information over lines." But, she adds, "We don't know what we don't know in terms of what's going to happen. Look at the shifts FedEx and the Internet have created. Jobs that used to be done at a desk, in your office, now can be done globally, electronically. Different models and opportunities are emerging."

Barrington agrees, noting, "A lot of new jobs are being created--for example, healthcare specialties. We can't say what they are because they haven't been created yet." And not all jobs will or can go overseas. "Service jobs--haircutting, for example--have to be here for physical presence," she explains.

Barrington projects that benefits will be a domestic growth area, "in part because the U.S. economy is so wealthy right now, and this is where profits are recorded." And finance departments, she thinks, must stay at home. "You've got to keep the finance piece close to you because finance is supporting headquarters," she says. "If headquarters doesn't move, finance won't." She adds, "Finance professionals tend to be higher income, so they'll tend to stay. And finance is a creative job. It's easiest to outsource rote things. Accounting processes can be outsourced"--the CFO's job can't.

And remember, Barrington says, that moving offshore isn't a uniquely American phenomenon. For instance, "The investment of Japanese and Korean auto companies in the U.S. means they have to have finance operations in our country. We're not focusing on new jobs that are being created as a result of foreign direct investment."