Outdoor recreation in America.

FUTURE DEMAND (2)

How great will the demand be? The most basic factor, of course, will be the number of people. Barring a war or other catastrophe, it seems very likely that the population will virtually double--from about 180 million today to approximately 230 million by 1976, and to 350 million by the year 2000.

It will be a more concentrated population; compared to 63 percent in 1960, about 73 percent of the people will be living in metropolitan areas by the year 2000. There will be more young people. The proportion of those in the 15-24 age bracket--the most active of all--will go from the current 13 percent of the total to about 17 percent by 1976.

At the very least, then, these figures suggest a doubling of demand by 2000, even if participation did not increase. But it will. Studies of other trends indicate that in the years ahead the individual will be participating a great deal more in recreation than he does now.

Incomes, for one thing, will be higher. With a projected annual growth rate of gross national product of 3.5 percent, disposable consumer income is expected to rise from $354 billion in 1960, to $706 billion by 1976, and to $1,437 billion by 2000. More people will be moving into the higher income brackets. In 1957, about 14 percent of the consumer units had incomes of $10,000 and over; by 1976, it is estimated the proportion will be up to 40 percent and by 2000 to 60 percent (in constant 1959 dollars).

With this new affluence, many more Americans will be able to afford the kinds of activities--like horseback riding, water skiing and boating--that they do not do now but would very much like to do. As the economic base widens, furthermore, many of the present differences between groups in the kinds of recreation they seek will lessen. There will also be a shift in the occupational composition of the population, with more people in the professional, technical and white collar categories, and this is likely to bring about an increase in outdoor activity. And an expected increase in the educational level of the adult population may be felt in greater participation in such activities as nature walks, attending outdoor drama, playing games and sightseeing.

People will have more free time. By 1976, it is estimated that the standard scheduled workweek will average 36 hours for the entire industrial work force versus $9 hours in 1960. And by 2000 it may be down to se hours. Much of the extra time will go to recreation; at least one-fifth of free time goes into outdoor recreation today, and we may expect at least this much in the future.

The inclination is already quite evident. A large number of people report that they would like to engage in a great deal more recreation activity than they do at present. They cite lack of time as the chief barrier. Lack of money is next. As people get more of both, there will be a considerable step-up in per capita demand; and even a modest increase, when it is applied to a doubled population, could have a great multiplying effect.

The forecasts of travel suggest an enormous expansion. In air travel, for example, some 30 billion passenger miles were flown by domestic carriers in 1960; by 1976, the figure may reach 150 billion; and by 2000, it could go as high as 325 billion. The number of passenger cars is projected at 100 million by 1976--an increase of nearly 80 percent above the number registered as of 1959--and by 2000 the number is expected to grow by as much again. The new degree of mobility should be impressive indeed, and among other effects, this will inevitably increase the pressure on recreation sites that now seem remote. Travel between countries will also increase. In 1960, 1.7 million Americans went overseas. By 2000, it is estimated that the number will be approximately 4 million. By going abroad Americans will put less Pressure on resources at home, but foreign visitors may offset this. In 1960, 600,00 came from overseas, and the trend is up. Major attractions for many of these visitors are the national parks and historic shrines--indeed, quite a selling point is being made of these abroad by the newly established U.S. Travel Service.

THE TOTAL EFFECT

In summary, vast as the demand for outdoor recreation presently is, it pales beside what may be expected in future years. Commission studies show that participation in outdoor recreation during each summer may well leap from the present 4.4 billion separate outdoor recreation "activity occasions"--participation by an individual in a single recreation activity during a day--to 6.9 billion activity occasions by 1976. By the year 2000, this total could rise to over 12.4 billion occasions, an increase of 184 percent over participation in 1960. Between the years 1960 and 2000, when the nation's population is expected to double, participation in outdoor pursuits will nearly triple.

Consideration of the factors that will affect demand must include supply. What people do depends greatly on what is available for them to do. The opportunity to try an activity is a necessary stimulus, but once experienced, it can set off a powerful spiral. To a degree that is hard for anyone to foresee, the sheer existence of new recreation facilities can stimulate people to use them, to try new activities, and this in turn leads them to seek still more. Water, especially, is a stimulus, and where none was before, the effect is galvanic. Not so long ago many people in the Southwest never counted boating in their way of life; today with their new reservoirs, they are probably the most avid boaters in the whole country.

Interaction between supply and demand complicates prediction, but it makes planning all the more necessary. Outdoor recreation may seem to be a vast set of miscellaneous activities whose only common denominator is the fact they take place out-of-doors. Basically, however, they make up a system with qualities of order in it.

Changes or shifts at a point in this system have effects elsewhere. The introduction of water skiing alters the way in which water can be used for other recreation purposes. The use of Yosemite by masses of people from nearby urban areas modifies its character as a national park. A change in the school vacation period in Illinois affects the demand for outdoor recreation facilities in Wisconsin. The new interstate highway program, when completed, will modify and enlarge our present outdoor recreation plan by reducing travel time to now remote areas. Within regions,and metropolitan areas, the same kind of factors operate on a smaller scale.

Thus, demand is one element of a system. Analysis of the preferences of individuals and groups can indicate the directions and amount of the total demand. These, together with the other elements of the system--the location of recreation places and the way the resources are used--produce a pattern.

The pattern can be anticipated, and it can be planned for.

WHAT AMERICANS DO MOST

NUMBER OF ACTIVITY DAYS PER PERSON, 12 YEARS AND OVER
JUNE 1, 1960--MAY 30, 1961

 DRIVING FOR PLEASURE   20.73

 WALKING FOR PLEASURE   17.93

      PLAYING OUTDOOR   12.71
      GAMES OR SPORTS

             SWIMMING    6.47

          SIGHTSEEING    5.91

            BICYCLING    5.15

              FISHING    4.19

            ATTENDING    3.75
        SPORTS EVENTS

           PICNICKING    3.53

   BOATING (NOT CANOE    1.95
             OR SAIL)

              HUNTING    1.86

     HORSEBACK RIDING    1.25

              CAMPING     .86

          ICE SKATING     .55

          SLEDDING OR     .51
          TOBOGGANING

               HIKING     .42

         WATER SKIING     .41

    ATTENDING OUTDOOR     .39
DRAMA, CONCERTS, ETC.

             CANOEING     .12

              SAILING     .11

    MOUNTAIN CLIMBING     .09

          SNOW SKIING     .07

Note: Table made from bar graph.

See Table 1, Appendix

The demand is surging. Whatever the measuring rod--visits to federal and state recreation areas, fishing license holders, the number of outboard motors in use--it is clear that Americans are seeking the outdoors as never before. And this is only a foretaste of what is to come.

EXPRESSION OF PREFERENCE OF PARTICIPANTS AND NON-PARTICIPANTS IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

                                                           DID NOT
                        PARTICIPATED                     PARTICIPATE
                             BUT        PARTICIPATED      BUT WOULD
                        EXPRESSED NO      AND WOULD     LIKE TO TAKE
                        DESIRE TO DO     LIKE TO DO     IT UP IN THE
                        SO MORE OFTEN   SO MORE OFTEN      FUTURE

    AUTOMOBILE RIDING        61%             10%              3%
      FOR SIGHTSEEING
       AND RELAXATION

              PICNICS        59%              7%              3%

     OUTDOOR SWIMMING        36%              9%              5%
OR GOING TO THE BEACH

              FISHING        25%             13%              8%

          BOATING AND        23%              5%              6%
             CANOEING

               HIKING        17%              2%              3%

           NATURE AND        12%              2%              2%
           BIRD WALKS

              HUNTING        12%              5%              5%

              CAMPING        11%              4%              9%

     HORSEBACK RIDING         5%              2%             10%

     SKIING AND OTHER         5%              1%              4%
        WINTER SPORTS

Note: Table made from bar graph.

See Table 2, Appendix

INDICES OF CHANGE
1951-1959

                           PERCENT INCREASE
                              OVER 1951

VISITS TO NATIONAL PARKS         86%

  OUTBOARD MOTORS IN USE         94%

      VISITS TO SELECTED         143%
        RECREATION AREAS

        INTERCITY TRAVEL         46%

 FISHING LICENSE HOLDERS         25%

   PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE         15%
                  INCOME

              POPULATION         15%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

See Table 3, Appendix

... and here is a projection of the total effect by the summer of 2000.

NUMBER OF OCCASIONS OF PARTICIPATION IN OUTDOOR SUMMER RECREATION
1960 COMPARED WITH 1976 AND 2000 (BY MILLIONS)

                        1960     1976    2000

 DRIVING FOR PLEASURE    872    1,341   2,215

             SWIMMING    672    1,182   2,307

 WALKING FOR PLEASURE    566      856   1,569

PLAYING OUTDOOR GAMES    474      825   1,666
            OR SPORTS

          SIGHTSEEING    287      456     825

           PICNICKING    279      418     700

              FISHING    260      350     521

            BICYCLING    228      297     452

    ATTENDING OUTDOOR    172      252     416
        SPORTS EVENTS

   BOATING OTHER THAN    159      285     557
  SAILING OR CANOEING

         NATURE WALKS     98      153     263

              HUNTING     95      123     174

              CAMPING     60      113     235

     HORSEBACK RIDING     55       82     143

         WATER SKIING     39       84     189

               HIKING     34       63     125

    ATTENDING OUTDOOR     27       46      92
 CONCERTS, DRAMA ETC.

Note: Table made from bar graph.

See Table 23, Appendix

ALL ACTIVITIES

1960    4,377
1976    6,926
2000   12,449

(2.) The projections in this section are based on Commission studies included in Projections to the Years 1976 and 2000, ORRRC Study Report 23:

"Population Projections of the United States for 1976 and 2000," Commission staff.

"Economic projections for the Years 1976 and 2000," National Planning Association.

"Economic Projections by States for the Years 1976 and 2000," National Planning Association.

"Industry Output, Employment, and Productivity in the Years 1976 and 2000," National Planning Association.

A. James Goldenthal, "The Future of Travel in the United States." "Estimates of the Decrease in Hours Worked, 1960-2000," Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor.